A GEOLOGICAL VIEW OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING Compiled by William D. Pollard, M Ray Thomasson PhD, and Lee Gerhard PhD THE ISSUE - Does the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, resulting from the use of fossil fuels, significantly contribute to current global warming? CONSIDER - Climate change is natural and has been continuous throughout earth s history, with innumerable warming and cooling cycles, which could not have been caused by human activity. Glaciers GLACIAL EXTENT - LAST ICE AGE Continuous sea ice C. R. Scotese, 1997 About 21, years ago, at the height of the last ice age, immense sheets of glacial ice thousands of feet thick covered all of present day Canada, the Northern United States, and Northern Europe. Sea level has risen nearly 4ft since the last ice age; a harsh terrain that resembled modern Antarctica was transformed gradually into the forests, grasslands, and wetlands we know today. (Pelou, 1991)
TEMPERATURE AND CARBON DIOXIDE LEVELS CALCULATED FROM ANTARCTICA AIR AND ICE CORE MEASUREMENTS Temp Deviation ( O F) 9-9 Temp of lower atmosphere ~38 ppmv 4-18 Atmospheric CO 2 concentrations 1-27 4, 3, 2, 1, Period of Years before Present -32 1 2-44 16, BP 1, BP -34 3-36 2, BP Years before present 4 5 CO 2 (ppmv) human civilization Pre-historic rises in CO 2 concentrations lag several hundred years behind temperature increases (Siegenthaler et al 25) CO 2 did not drive temperature increases. The earth is currently in an inter-glacial (global warming) cycle. The warming cycle began at the end of the last ice age about 18, years ago, as the result of natural processes. The current warm period will end with the onset of another glacial cycle. TEMPERATURE TRENDS CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE TIME PERIOD STUDIED (rising slope = rising temperature) Trend 1 - Over the past 16, years, average temperature has increased. Trends 2, 3 & 4 - In the past 1,, 2, and 7 year periods, average temperatures have decreased suggesting a change toward glacial conditions. Trend 5 - In the past 5 years, average temperatures have been increasing - in the past 2, years far greater temperature increases have occured. 18 O (oxygen isotope) relative values have been related to atmospheric temperature, using ice core records from Greenland and Antarctica Davis and Bohling, 21
O F 54. THE LAST CENTURY OF U.S. TEMPERATURE AND CARBON DIOXIDE TRENDS ppmv 5 YEAR RUNNING AVERAGE ANNUAL TEMPERATURE 38 (NCDC, NOAA) 36 TEMP DEVIATIONS, O F 52. 5. 1.4.7. -.7 CO 2 CONCENTRATION (SIPLE STATION ICE CORE and MAUNA LOA) 19 192 194 196 198 2 GLOBAL TEMPERATURE SOLAR OUTPUT 19 192 194 196 198 2 34 32 3 2 th CENTURY U.S. TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY CYCLIC - CHANGES IN CO 2 CONCENTRATION AND TEMPERATURE DO NOT CORRELATE IN THE SHORT TERM From 1998 to 24 the U.S. experienced a decrease in average temperature of 1.26 O F, the reverse of carbon dioxide concentration trend. (G Taylor, 24) SOLAR ENERGY VARIANCE AND PERIODIC SHIFTS IN THE EARTH S ORBIT ARE THE PRIMARY DRIVERS OF GLOBAL TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS. 1372 1371 137 Solar output (Haigh, Dec 21) Variations in shape of earth s elliptical orbit (Zahn, 22) Slight changes in axial tilt of the earth (Zahn, 22) Changes in position of land masses over geologic time relative to the earth s poles (Gerhard and Harrison, 21) WATTS PER SQUARE METER
RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF GREENHOUSE GASES The greenhouse effect makes our earth suitable for life as we know it. Solar energy is trapped, keeping average temperature in a range that supports life. CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT (M Hieb, 22) OCEAN BIOLOGIC ACTIVITY, VOLCANOES, DECAYING PLANTS, ANIMAL ACTIVITIES, ETC. approx 4.7 % WATER VAPOR 95 % HUMAN ACTIVITIES - MANUFACTURING, POWER GENERATION, TRANSPORTATION, ETC. approx.3 % CONCLUSIONS Many geologists and atmospheric scientists believe climate change is driven by natural causes. Human activities have caused carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere to increase. The impact of this increase is very minor compared to astronomical and geological causes. Current global warming is much less than other periods in recorded history. Glacial conditions will return. Small increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide promote greater plant growth (food production). ALL OF THE PRINCIPAL CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE ARE BEYOND THE CONTROL OF HUMAN BEINGS
A GEOLOGICAL VIEW OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING Compiled by William D. Pollard, M Ray Thomasson PhD, and Lee Gerhard PhD THE ISSUE - Does the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, resulting from the use of fossil fuels, significantly contribute to current global warming? CONSIDER - Climate change is natural and has been continuous throughout earth s history, with innumerable warming and cooling cycles, which could not have been caused by human activity. Glaciers GLACIAL EXTENT - LAST ICE AGE C. R. Scotese, 1997 Continuous sea ice About 21, years ago, at the height of the last ice age, immense sheets of glacial ice thousands of feet thick covered all of present day Canada, the Northern United States, and Northern Europe. Sea level has risen nearly 4ft since the last ice age; a harsh terrain that resembled modern Antarctica was transformed gradually into the forests, grasslands, and wetlands we know today. (Pelou, 1991) TEMPERATURE AND CARBON DIOXIDE LEVELS CALCULATED FROM ANTARCTICA AIR AND ICE CORE MEASUREMENTS 9 Temp of lower atmosphere ~38 ppmv 4 Temp Deviation ( O F) -9-18 Atmospheric CO 2 concentrations 1-27 4, 3, 2, 1, Period of Years before Present human civilization Pre-historic rises in CO 2 concentrations lag several hundred years behind temperature increases (Siegenthaler et al 25) CO 2 did not drive temperature increases. The earth is currently in an inter-glacial (global warming) cycle. The warming cycle began at the end of the last ice age about 18, years ago, as the result of natural processes. The current warm period will end with the onset of another glacial cycle. TEMPERATURE TRENDS CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE TIME PERIOD STUDIED -32 1-44 16, BP 1, BP -34 3 2-36 2, BP Years before present 4 CO 2 (ppmv) (rising slope = rising temperature) Trend 1 - Over the past 16, years, average temperature has increased. Trends 2, 3 & 4 - In the past 1,, 2, and 7 year periods, average temperatures have decreased suggesting a change toward glacial conditions. Trend 5 - In the past 5 years, average 5 temperatures have been increasing - in the past 2, years far greater temperature increases have occured. 18 O (oxygen isotope) relative values have been related to atmospheric temperature, using ice core records from Greenland and Antarctica Davis and Bohling, 21 O F 54. ppmv 5 YEAR RUNNING AVERAGE ANNUAL TEMPERATURE 38 (NCDC, NOAA) 36 34 52. 32 CO 2 CONCENTRATION (SIPLE STATION ICE CORE and MAUNA LOA) 3 5. 19 192 194 196 198 2 2 th CENTURY U.S. TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY CYCLIC - CHANGES IN CO 2 CONCENTRATION AND TEMPERATURE DO NOT CORRELATE IN THE SHORT TERM From 1998 to 24 the U.S. experienced a decrease in average temperature of 1.26 O F, the reverse of carbon dioxide concentration trend. (G Taylor, 24) SOLAR ENERGY VARIANCE AND PERIODIC SHIFTS IN THE EARTH S ORBIT ARE THE PRIMARY DRIVERS OF GLOBAL TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS. 1.4 GLOBAL TEMPERATURE 1372.7 TEMP DEVIATIONS, O F. -.7 THE LAST CENTURY OF U.S. TEMPERATURE AND CARBON DIOXIDE TRENDS SOLAR OUTPUT 19 192 194 196 198 2 1371 137 Solar output (Haigh, Dec 21) Variations in shape of earth s elliptical orbit (Zahn, 22) Slight changes in axial tilt of the earth (Zahn, 22) Changes in position of land masses over geologic time relative to the earth s poles (Gerhard and Harrison, 21) WATTS PER SQUARE METER RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF GREENHOUSE GASES The greenhouse effect makes our earth suitable for life as we know it. Solar energy is trapped, keeping average temperature in a range that supports life. CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT (M Hieb, 22) OCEAN BIOLOGIC ACTIVITY, VOLCANOES, DECAYING PLANTS, ANIMAL ACTIVITIES, ETC. approx 4.7 % WATER VAPOR 95 % HUMAN ACTIVITIES - MANUFACTURING, POWER GENERATION, TRANSPORTATION, ETC. approx.3 % CONCLUSIONS Many geologists and atmospheric scientists believe climate change is driven by natural causes. Human activities have caused carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere to increase. The impact of this increase is very minor compared to astronomical and geological causes. Current global warming is much less than other periods in recorded history. Glacial conditions will return. Small increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide promote greater plant growth (food production). ALL OF THE PRINCIPAL CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE ARE BEYOND THE CONTROL OF HUMAN BEINGS