Uncertainties in planetary boundary layer schemes and current status of urban boundary layer simulations at OU

Similar documents
Ensemble based simultaneous state and parameter estimation for treatment of mesoscale model error: A real data study

Supplementary Material

Evaluation of Planetary Boundary Layer Scheme Sensitivities for the Purpose of Parameter Estimation

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA

An analysis of Wintertime Cold-Air Pool in Armenia Using Climatological Observations and WRF Model Data

WRF/Chem forecasting of boundary layer meteorology and O 3. Xiaoming 湖南气象局 Nov. 22 th 2013

ANNUAL WRF SIMULATIONS FOR THE UTAH BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENT S AIR RESOURCE MANAGEMENT STRATEGY (ARMS) AIR QUALITY MODELING

Evaluation of nonlocal and local planetary boundary layer schemes in the WRF model

PSU HFIP 2010 Summary: Performance of the ARW-EnKF Real-time Cloud-resolving TC Ensemble Analysis and Forecasting System.

P1.2 SENSITIVITY OF WRF MODEL FORECASTS TO DIFFERENT PHYSICAL PARAMETERIZATIONS IN THE BEAUFORT SEA REGION

Sensitivity of precipitation forecasts to cumulus parameterizations in Catalonia (NE Spain)

Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Melissa Goering Glen Sampson ATMO 595E November 18, 2004

MM5 v3.6.1 and WRF v3.5.1 model comparison of standard and surface energy variables in the development of the planetary boundary layer

Assessing WRF PBL Schemes for Wind Energy Applications

Modeling Study of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Characteristics in Industrial City by the Example of Chelyabinsk

Simulating roll clouds associated with low-level convergence in WRF

The Fifth-Generation NCAR / Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) Mark Decker Feiqin Xie ATMO 595E November 23, 2004 Department of Atmospheric Science

Air Quality Screening Modeling

VERIFICATION OF HIGH RESOLUTION WRF-RTFDDA SURFACE FORECASTS OVER MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS

2012 AHW Stream 1.5 Retrospective Results

VALIDATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS FROM WRF MESOSCALE FORECASTS WITH APPLICATIONS TO WIND ENERGY FORECASTING

Real time probabilistic precipitation forecasts in the Milano urban area: comparison between a physics and pragmatic approach

Assimilation in the PBL

Impact of vegetation cover estimates on regional climate forecasts

Evaluating winds and vertical wind shear from Weather Research and Forecasting model forecasts using seven planetary boundary layer schemes

Atmospheric Research

Development and Testing of Polar WRF *

Work Plan. Air Quality Research Program (AQRP) Project 12-TN1

608 SENSITIVITY OF TYPHOON PARMA TO VARIOUS WRF MODEL CONFIGURATIONS

Development and Validation of Polar WRF

A Modeling Study of PBL heights

Testing and Improving Pacific NW PBL forecasts

Impact of physical parameterizations and initial conditions on simulated atmospheric transport and CO 2 mole fractions in the US Midwest

Cities & Storms: How Land Use, Settlement Patterns, and the Shapes of Cities Influence Severe Weather

Sensitivity of tropical cyclone Jal simulations to physics parameterizations

Assimilate W88D Doppler Vr for Humberto 05

Regional Scale Modeling and Numerical Weather Prediction

Meteorological Modeling using Penn State/NCAR 5 th Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5)

Advanced Hurricane WRF (AHW) Physics

PSU WRF-EnKF Realtime Performance for Sandy 60-member 3-km cloud-resolving ensemble analysis forecast from 00Z Oct 26

Impacts of the Lowest Model Level Height on the Performance of Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterizations

A WRF Ensemble for Improved Wind Speed Forecasts at Turbine Height

Quantifying the influence of wind advection on the urban heat island for an improvement of a climate change adaptation planning tool

The Total Energy Mass Flux PBL Scheme: Overview and Performance in Shallow-Cloud Cases

Enhancing Weather Forecasts via Assimilating SMAP Soil Moisture and NRT GVF

A New Ocean Mixed-Layer Model Coupled into WRF

J5.8 ESTIMATES OF BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES BY MEANS OF ENSEMBLE-FILTER ASSIMILATION OF NEAR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN A PARAMETERIZED PBL

Validation of Boundary Layer Winds from WRF Mesoscale Forecasts over Denmark

Surface layer parameterization in WRF

SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences

The Global Weather Research and Forecasting (GWRF) Model: Model Evaluation, Sensitivity Study, and Future Year Simulation

Implementation of Modeling the Land-Surface/Atmosphere Interactions to Mesoscale Model COAMPS

Dynamic Ensemble Model Evaluation of Elevated Thunderstorms sampled by PRECIP

Investigation of surface layer parameterization in WRF model & its impact on modeled nocturnal wind biases

Dynamical downscaling of future climate change scenarios in urban heat island and its neighborhood in a Brazilian subtropical area

WRF Land Surface Schemes and Paris Air Quality

17th International Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes 9-12 May 2016, Budapest, Hungary

Tue 2/9/2016. Turbulence and PBL closure: Reminders/announcements: Local & non-local WRF PBL options. - WRF real-data case assignment, due today

MPAS Atmospheric Boundary Layer Simulation under Selected Stability Conditions: Evaluation using the SWIFT dataset

The Impact of Climate Change on Air Quality Related Meteorological Conditions in California. Part I: Present Time Simulation Analysis

Some Applications of WRF/DART

Influence of variations in low-level moisture and soil moisture on the organization of summer convective systems in the US Midwest

WRF Simulations of the Urban Circulation in the Salt Lake City Area for CO 2 Modeling

WRF Model Simulated Proxy Datasets Used for GOES-R Research Activities

Land Surface Processes and Their Impact in Weather Forecasting

Quality and sensitivity of high-resolution numerical simulation of urban heat islands

Study of the impacts of grid spacing and physical parameterizations on WRF simulations of convective system rainfall and morphology

The authors are grateful to the reviewer s valuable comments that improved the manuscript.

Assessment of the Noah LSM with Multi-parameterization Options (Noah-MP) within WRF

Di Wu, Xiquan Dong, Baike Xi, Zhe Feng, Aaron Kennedy, and Gretchen Mullendore. University of North Dakota

Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio

Improved rainfall and cloud-radiation interaction with Betts-Miller-Janjic cumulus scheme in the tropics

Influences of PBL Parameterizations on Warm-Season Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Simulations

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY UNDER

School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou , China 2

P1M.4 COUPLED ATMOSPHERE, LAND-SURFACE, HYDROLOGY, OCEAN-WAVE, AND OCEAN-CURRENT MODELS FOR MESOSCALE WATER AND ENERGY CIRCULATIONS

D.Carvalho, A, Rocha, at 2014 Applied Energy. Report person:zhang Jiarong. Date:

Xuanli LI and Zhaoxia PU. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Stable and transitional (and cloudy) boundary layers in WRF. Wayne M. Angevine CIRES, University of Colorado, and NOAA ESRL

SIMULATION OF ATMOSPHERIC STATES FOR THE CASE OF YEONG-GWANG STORM SURGE ON 31 MARCH 2007 : MODEL COMPARISON BETWEEN MM5, WRF AND COAMPS

Comparison of Typhoon Track Forecast using Dynamical Initialization Schemeinstalled

HWRF sensitivity to cumulus schemes

First steps toward a comparison of modelled thermal comfort during a heatwave in Melbourne, Australia

Investigation of feedback mechanisms between soil moisture, land use and precipitation in West Africa

Modeling Study of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Characteristics in Industrial City by the Example of Chelyabinsk

A Combined Local and Nonlocal Closure Model for the Atmospheric Boundary Layer. Part I: Model Description and Testing

Atmospheric Measurement Techniques

A GSI-based convection-allowing EnKF and ensemble forecast system for PECAN

Near-surface weather prediction and surface data assimilation: challenges, development, and potential data needs

Tue 2/16/2016. Wrap-up on some WRF PBL options Paper presentations (Hans, Pat, Dylan, Masih, Xia, James) Begin convective parameterization (if time)

Application of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for Air Quality Modeling in the San Francisco Bay Area

Tests of an Ensemble Kalman Filter for Mesoscale and Regional-Scale Data Assimilation. Part III: Comparison with 3DVAR in a Real-Data Case Study

The Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) Steve Koch, NOAA/FSL

Incorporating Space-borne Observations to Improve Biogenic Emission Estimates in Texas (Project )

A WRF-based rapid updating cycling forecast system of. BMB and its performance during the summer and Olympic. Games 2008

Tropical cyclone predictions over the Bay of Bengal using the high-resolution Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) model

WRF-RTFDDA Optimization and Wind Farm Data Assimilation

Land Data Assimilation at NCEP NLDAS Project Overview, ECMWF HEPEX 2004

Investigation of the Effects of Different Land Use and Land Cover Patterns on Mesoscale Meteorological Simulations in the Taiwan Area

Research Article Analysis of WRF Model Performance over Subtropical Region of Delhi, India

Transcription:

Uncertainties in planetary boundary layer schemes and current status of urban boundary layer simulations at OU Xiaoming Hu September 16 th @ 3:00 PM, NWC 5600 Contributors: Fuqing Zhang, Pennsylvania State Univ John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M Univ

Part 1: Evaluate three PBL schemes in the WRF model Part 2: Improve a PBL scheme through EnKF parameter estimation Part 3: Current status of urban BL simulations at OU

Part 1: Evaluate three PBL schemes in the WRF model Importance of PBL schemes The accuracy of the PBL scheme is critical for forecasts of local thermally driven flows and air quality while it also affects forecasts of larger-scale meteorological phenomena (Hacker and Snyder, 2005)

Three PBL schemes in WRF MYJ, YSU, ACM2 MYJ: local, down gradient YSU, ACM2: local+non-local (YSU implicit, ACM2 explicit) YSU: the Yonsei University scheme MYJ: the Mellor Yamada Janjic scheme ACM2: the asymmetric convective model scheme, v2 Non-local Local

Configurations Episode & Resolution Period: July Sept., 2005 Resolution: 108km, 36km, 12km, 4km Grids: 53 43, 97 76, 145 100, 166 184 Model Configurations YSU, ACM2, MYJ PBL schemes WSM 6-class graupel scheme NOAH land-surface model (LSM) Dudhia short wave radiation RRTM long wave radiation Grell-Devenyi ensemble cumulus scheme Domains and TCEQ, NWS/FAA sites

Mean T2 and dew point over 211 NWS/FAA sites MYJ gives the coldest and moistest biases near the surface

Mean T2 at 15 and 00 CST The model captures the spatial variation of temperature, but MYJ predicts the lowest temperature near the surface

Mean PBL Height MYJ underpredicts PBL height over most sites

Difference of T2 and HFX between simulations with YSU and MYJ Difference of sensible heat flux (HFX) cannot explain difference of T2

Mean profiles of T and moisture MYJ doesn t mix as high as YSU and ACM2 during daytime

Mean temperature profile difference from 9 CST at 11 CST MYJ underestimates entrainment fluxes.

Normalized Kz profile due to different p p controls the local vertical mixing coefficient in ACM2 PBL scheme

Mean profile of T and QVAPOR from runs with altered p The similarity between the sensitivity of WRF to varied mixing strength and the sensitivity of WRF to different PBL schemes confirms that much of the sensitivity of WRF to different PBL schemes is attributable to their different vertical mixing strengths.

Mean profiles of T and moisture MYJ doesn t mix as high as YSU and ACM2 during daytime

Conclusions 1. The YSU and ACM2 schemes both tend to predict higher T and lower moisture, and thus smaller biases, than the MYJ scheme in the lower atmosphere during daytime because of their stronger vertical mixing. 2. The above conclusion is verified by the experiments with the WRF model with altered vertical mixing strength.

Part 2: Improve the performance of a PBL scheme through EnKF parameter estimation

WSP sensitivity to 10 parameters in ACM2 WSP is mostly sensitive to p, Rc.

orrelation between parameters & WSP WSP shows the largest correlation with p, Rc. Thus p, Rc have the largest identifiability

Sensitivity to p Lower p => stronger vertical mixing => higher PBL height.

Use EnKF to update p, Rc Deterministic simulation (NoDA) Regular EnKF (NoPE) Parameter estimation EnKF (SSPE) Update p, Rc simultaneously as updating regular states Assimilate wind profiler data only every 6-hour between Aug. 30-Sept. 2, 2006 over Texas Deterministic simulation with estimated parameters (NoDAnew)

Wind vectors at Sept 1, 10 CST (a) observations (b) NoDA (c) NoPE (d) SSPE SSPE shows the best agreement for surface wind.

Profiles of WSP and T SSPE predicts higher PBLH to match profiler data.

Evolution of p During most of time, SSPE predicts p value lower than 2.0 (default).

Bias and error of T2 SSPE predicts the least cold bias.

Conclusions 1. PBL schemes remain one of the primary sources of inaccuracies in model simulation. Vertical mixing strength plays an important role in performance of PBL schemes 2. Real-data experiments show that simultaneous state and parameter estimation with EnKF performs better than deterministic simulation and regular EnKF by providing optimized flow dependent parameters in the PBL scheme

Part 3: Current status of urban boundary layer simulations at OU

MODIS observed UHI, daytime March 2005

MODIS observed UHI, nighttime July 2006

UHI splits precipitation?

Configurations of WRF-UCM Episode & Resolution Period: July 13., 2005 Resolution: 40.5, 13.5, 4.5, 1.5, 0.5km Model Configurations YSU PBL schemes WSM 6-class graupel scheme Dudhia short wave radiation RRTM long wave radiation NOAH land-surface model (LSM) + an urban canopy model (UCM) HFX = F urb HFX ucm + (1 F urb ) HFX NOAH

Schematic of urban canopy model Slab model like NOAH Urban canopy model (UCM) HFX = F urb HFX ucm + (1 F urb ) HFX NOAH

Detailed land use data USGS 1994 NLCD 2006 Urban expansion since 1994

Simulated urban heat island

Challenges in initializing WRF-UCM Default soil moisture cannot represent urban

Solution for initializing soil moisture? Run an uncoupled (offline) LSM constrained by observed forcing conditions long enough to develop an equilibrium soil properties? Chen et al. (2011) run NOAH/UCM in an offline mode for 18 months. Run NASA Land Information System (LIS) in an offline mode?

References 1. Hu, X.-M., J. W. Nielsen-Gammon, and F. Zhang (2010), Evaluation of Three Planetary Boundary Layer Schemes in the WRF Model, J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 49, 1831 1844. 2. Nielsen-Gammon, J. W., X.-M. Hu, F. Zhang, and J. E. Pleim (2010), Evaluation of Planetary Boundary Layer Scheme Sensitivities for the Purpose of Parameter Estimation, Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 3400 3417. 3. Hu, X.-M., F. Zhang, and J. W. Nielsen-Gammon (2010), Ensemblebased simultaneous state and parameter estimation for treatment of mesoscale model error: A real-data study, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L08802, doi:10.1029/2010gl043017.

Links 1. http://faculty-staff.ou.edu/h/xiaoming.hu-1/ 2. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010jamc2432.1 3. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010mwr3292.1 4. http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2010/2010gl043017.shtml Simulations of WRF-UCM 5. http://www.caps.ou.edu/micronet/wrf-ucm.html