Resource data: the provider s perspective Workshop on Mineral Resources in LCIA Mapping the path forward Natural History Museum, London October 14, 2015 Jane M. Hammarstrom Nedal Nassar U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey
What does USGS provide? Data collection, analysis, and dissemination National Minerals Information Center (NMIC) The USGS Mineral Resources Program (MRP) delivers unbiased science and information to understand mineral resource potential, production, consumption, and how mineral resources interact with the environment http://minerals.usgs.gov/
What does USGS provide? Research Materials Flow and Recycling Research Mineral Resources and the Environment Mineral Resource Assessment
Resource: a concentration of naturally occurring solid, liquid or gaseous material in/on the Earth s crust in such form and amount that economic extraction of a commodity from the concentration is currently or potentially feasible. Reserve: Part of identified resources that could be economically extracted or produced at the time of determination. The term reserves need not signify that extraction facilities are in place and operative. Reserves include only recoverable materials.
Copper Production and Reserve Estimates Resource: Economic extraction is currently or potentially feasible Reserve: Could be economically extracted at the time of determination Mine production Reserves 2012 2013 e United States 1,170 1,220 39,000 Australia 958 990 87,000 Canada 579 630 10,000 Chile 5,430 5,700 190,000 China 1,630 1,650 30,000 Congo (Kinshasa) 600 900 20,000 Indonesia 360 380 28,000 Kazakhstan 424 440 7,000 Mexico 440 480 38,000 Peru 1,300 1,300 70,000 Poland 427 430 26,000 Russia 883 930 30,000 Zambia 690 830 20,000 Other countries 2,000 2,000 90,000 World total (rounded) 16,900 17,900 690,000 1 For Australia, Joint Ore Reserves Committee (JORC)-compliant reserves were about 24 million tons. Source: USGS, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2014
World Copper Reserves, 1990 and 2013 [Million metric tons (Mt)] 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1990 (Total = 336 Mt) Chile Other USA USSR Zaire Australia Zambia Canada Poland Peru 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2013 (Total = 690 Mt) Chile Other Australia Peru USA Mexico China Russia Indonesia Poland Zambia Congo Source: USGS, Mineral Commodity Summaries 1991, 2014
What do we know about reserve estimates? True: Snapshot in time - moving target A company s needs and government policy can affect estimates Estimates may lack consistency owing to source, methodology, and professional judgment False: Compiled reserves tell us how many years until the copper supply is depleted As ore is mined, reserves must decrease What do we know about resources?
Assessment of Undiscovered Mineral Resources exploration reserves USGS resource classification Example as modified by GTK undiscovered mineral resources : location, grade, quality, and quantity of mineralized material are not constrained by specific geologic evidence (includes subeconomic)
How? USGS 3-Part Form of Assessment (1) Delineate areas that are permissive for the deposit type based on mineral deposit models Singer, D.A., and Menzie, W.D., 2010, Quantitative mineral resource assessments An integrated approach: New York, Oxford University Press, 219 p. (2) Use grade and tonnage models as analogs for undiscovered resources Geology (3) Make probabilistic estimates of numbers of undiscovered deposits Estimator N90 N50 N10 Mean s Coefficient of variation 1 2 7 12 7 4 52% 2 6 16 35 18 10 57% 3 4 13 24 13 7 53% 4 4 14 22 13 6 47% 5 4 8 20 10 6 59% 6 4 12 24 13 7 55% Consensus 4 14 24 14 7 51% Combine estimates with grade-tonnage models using Monte Carlo simulation to estimate contained metal
Global Copper Assessment A cooperative international effort to assess the world s undiscovered copper mineral resources To provide unbiased, science-based information on the geologic availability of mineral resources for resource development, land-use planning, and decision making Why is copper so important? 45 kg in a hybrid car 0.9 miles of wire in a car 120,000 tons of copper were used for wind energy in 2011 Data source: ICSG World Refined Copper Usage
Areas that could contain undiscovered copper resources
Global assessment results for copper
Are we running out of copper? (resource depletion) NO! Will copper be available for future generations? It depends Demand Exploration (deep) Recycling (including waste) Technology Economics Social and political license to explore and mine Competing land uses Environmentally responsible development Societal understanding of the value of copper
For resource depletion, where do you start? Parameter Copper, in million metric tons Comment Source World refined copper usage 20.4 21.4 22.9 For 2012 For 2013 For 2014 International Copper Study Group (2015) World mine production 17.0 17.9 18.7 For 2012 For 2013 For 2014 Cumulative production 600 Cumulative world copper production from 1879 to 2012. 567 Cumulative world copper production from 1892 to 2011 World reserves 680 For 2012 690 For 2013 700 For 2014 Identified world resources 2,100 Past production and measured, indicated, and inferred resources at the lowest reported cutoff grade 1,860 Resources identified in 730 copper projects as of 2010, includes operating mines as well as deposits in development and exploration; all types; includes 80.4 Mt Chinese national resources. Edelstein (2013) Brininstool (2014) Brininstool (2015) D.Edelstein, written commun., 2013 Mudd and others (2013) Edelstein (2013) Brininstool (2014) Brininstool (2015) Singer and Menzie (2010) Mudd and others (2013) Undiscovered world resources 3,200 Porphyry copper deposits (upper 1 km) USGS global copper assessment (2 main deposit types only) 400 Sediment-hosted stratabound copper deposits (upper 2.5 km) Theoretical world resources 170,000 Porphyry copper deposits Kesler and Wilkinson (2008) 89,000 All deposit types ( upper 3.3 km) recoverable 300,000 All types (entire crust)