Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Founded 1988. Provides science assessments. Policy-relevant, not policy-prescriptive. Major reports: 1990, 1995, 2001, 2007. Highly regarded, endorsed by many national academies of science, professional societies. Three working groups: 1. Physical Climate Science, 2. Adaptation, and 3. Mitigation.
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The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate. - IPCC (1995). There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities. - IPCC (2001).
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. - IPCC, Paris, 2 February 2007.
Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. - IPCC, Paris, 2 February 2007. ( very likely means at least 90% probable) IPCC reports are at www.ipcc.ch
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Some observational evidence of climate change The largest CO 2 growth rate is in the most recent decade. Earth is now 0.76 degrees Celsius warmer than in 1860. North Atlantic hurricanes have intensified since 1970. Arctic temperatures increased at twice the global rate. Arctic sea ice has shrunk by 2.7% per decade. 11 of the last 12 years are in the 12 warmest since 1850. The ocean is warming to depths of at least 3,000 meters.
Some projections of future climate change Sea level will rise 0.2 to 0.6 meters in the 21st century (with caveats: we cannot yet assess ice sheet dynamics). Larger values cannot be excluded (125,000 years ago, sea level was 4 to 6 meters higher than at present, but high temperatures then were sustained for a long time). Over the next 20 years, expect 0.2 degrees C per decade further warming. This continues the observed recent trend, which is consistent with earlier IPCC projections.
More projections of future climate change Ocean acidity will increase 0.14 to 0.35 ph units by 2100. Snow cover and sea ice will contract. Heat waves and heavy precipitation will be more frequent. Future tropical cyclones will become more intense. Warming and sea level rise will continue for centuries. Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will slow. Precipitation will increase in high latitudes, decrease in low.
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Climate change contrarians dispute the consensus. They are few but noisy. A well-funded disinformation campaign, similar to the one mounted by the tobacco industry decades ago, confuses the public. The goal of this propaganda is to create the impression that the science is immature, uncertain and untrustworthy. Doubt is our product.
http://realclimate.org This site is run by excellent climate scientists. The IPCC reacts in years; this site takes days. It covers current developments accessibly. It is up-to-date, indexed, and searchable. The postings by the scientists are trustworthy. The comments by bloggers are interesting.
Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections Stefan Rahmstorf, Anny Cazenave, John A. Church, James E. Hansen, Ralph F. Keeling, David E. Parker, Richard C. J. Somerville Science, 4 May 2007, vol. 316, p. 709, published online 1 February 2007 (10.1126/science.1136843). Overall, these observational data underscore the concerns about global climate change. Previous projections, as summarized by IPCC, have not exaggerated but may in some respects even have underestimated the change, in particular for sea level.
My own policy recommendation: The next round of focused negotiations for a new global climate treaty (within the 1992 UNFCCC process) begins in December 2007 at COP-13 in Bali, Indonesia. The prime goal of a new regime should be to limit global warming to no more than 2 ºC above the pre-industrial temperature. This may be safe. We cannot be sure. This limit has already been formally adopted by the European Union and a number of other countries.
Based on current scientific understanding, this 2 ºC goal requires that global greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced by at least 50% below their 1990 levels by the year 2050. In the long run, total greenhouse gas concentrations need to be stabilized at a level well below 450 ppm (parts per million) measured in CO2-equivalent units. In order to stay below 2 ºC, global emissions must peak and decline in the next 10 to 15 years. Thus, there is no time to lose.
Charles D. Keeling (1928-2005) Image credit: Publication of the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Adminstration (NOAA), NOAA Central Library; Photo Date: 1982 February; Photographer: Commander John Bortniak, NOAA Corps (ret.)
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