National Weather Service Integrated Warning Team Workshops: NWS Warnings and Outdoor Warning Sirens Tim Halbach Warning Coordination Meteorologist Milwaukee NWS
Integrated Warning Team NWS State Officials Hospitals Media Emergency Managers Universities Schools Police/Fire Private Sector
Integrated Warning Team NWS Hospitals State Officials Police/Fire Media Private Sector Universities Emergency Managers Schools
Why have an IWT? Weather happens.
Why have an IWT? Weather impacts people!
What can we do? Can WE do more to better serve the public by protecting life and property threatened by hazardous weather? Do we know why people respond or don t to hazardous weather forecasts and warnings? Who responds and who doesn t? How do they respond? Are our messages uniform? Are we providing our information in a format people understand, want, and can use? Do we consistently act as a TEAM, or as a group of individuals? Reminder: Southern Wisconsin IWT Workshop Tuesday, October 31 st Aurora Summit-Oconomowoc 9am-Noon
Milwaukee IWT Topic of conversation: How is the public responding to inconsistencies when outdoor warning sirens are sounded? Specific example: July 2016 Waukesha County Fair, sirens sounded for Severe Thunderstorm Warning w/70mph winds.
What triggers a warning? Environment Radar Typically need 2 out of 3 of these to issue a warning. Report Less reliant on spotter reports at night.
Issuing a warning
Issuing a warning
All severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are dangerous, but not all severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are equal! Strong tornado, urban area Weak tornado, rural area To help pick out the most dangerous warnings, look the tags at the bottom of warnings.
Tornado Warning Base Considerable Catastrophic Severe Thunderstorm Warning Hail Wind Tornado 1 1.25 60 mph Possible 1.5 2.5 70 mph Giant Hail; > 2.5 80 mph 90-100 mph
Tornado Warning Base Impact Statement Expect damage to roofs, siding and trees. TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED OR TORNADO...OBSERVED
Tornado Warning Considerable Impact Statement You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
Tornado Warning Catastrophic Tornado Emergency Impact Statement You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC
Severe Thunderstorm Warning Tornado Possible PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS MEAURES Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant property damage. TORNADO...POSSIBLE
Severe Thunderstorm Warning Wind Levels: 60 mph Impact Statement Expect damage to roofs, siding and trees. WIND...60MPH
Severe Thunderstorm Warning Wind Levels: 70 mph Impact Statement Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. WIND...70MPH
Severe Thunderstorm Warning Wind Levels: 80 mph Impact Statement Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely. WIND...80MPH
Severe Thunderstorm Warning Wind Levels: 90-100 mph Impact Statement You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. WIND...90MPH WIND...100MPH
2012-2017 # of Severe T-Storm Warnings Severe T-Storm Warnings per year
# of 60 mph Tags 60 mph 2012-2017 # of 60 mph Tags per year
# of 70 mph Tags 70 mph 2012-2017 # of 70 mph Tags per year
# of 80-100 mph Tags 80-100 mph 2012-2017 # of 80-100 mph Tags per year
2012-2017 # of Tornado Warnings # of Tornado POSSIBLE in SVRs
80 mph: T-Storm winds scenario
A few things... 2012-2017 was a fairly slow period of severe weather. CONSIDERABLE and CATASTROPHIC tags have never been used in Wisconsin. Changes in Tag Levels occur with Severe Weather Statements. Frequency of statement updates varies. Wireless Emergency Alerts by FCC/FEMA are looking at adding in high end Severe Thunderstorm Warnings to their suite. -80 mph and 2.75 (baseball) hail Sirens are only a part of the warning system. Consider what happens when sirens go off but the rest of the warning systems stay silent.
Warning System If sirens go off from dispatch for a report, but that doesn t get to the NWS to issue a warning, the public will be confused.
Questions? Please contact Timothy.J.Halbach@noaa.gov 262-965-5061 x726