Development of monitoring and GIS systems to assess distribution and diffusion of D. suzukii Alessandro Cini, UPMC Paris Gianfranco Anfora, FEM, Markus Netelerm FEM, Alberto Grassi, FEM AlessioPapini, Univ. Firenze Ugo Santosuosso, Univ. Firenze cini.ales@gmail.com Advances and prospects on monitoring and modelingof Drosophila suzukii in Europe Wädenswil, Switzerland 26-27 March 2013 COST-Action FA 1104 Meeting WG3 Crop Protection
Talk overview What s going on in Trentino? -MONITORING IN TRENTINO -Alberto Grassi, Gianfranco Anfora(FEM, Trento) alberto.grassi@fmach.it -MODELING IN TRENTINO (but not only in Trentino) -Markus Neteler, Duccio Rocchini, Gianfranco Anfora(FEM, Trento) markus.neteler@fmach.it Where did the pest arrive and spread? -TRACKING THE ORIGIN/S OF THE INVASION -Cini Alessandro, Alessio Papini, Ugo Santuososso(Univ. of Florence) cini.ales@gmail.com
MONITORING Apple vinegar # ADULTS / TRAP / WEEK Seasonal dynamics of D. suzukii captures in Trentino APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. 2012: 77 TRAPS 29700 ADULTS CAUGHT 386 ADULTS/TRAP DEC.
MONITORING 2012: 36850 fruits analysed: 3780 were infected (10%-16% in 2011) 2011 2012 Dynamics of the impact on different hosts 120 100 80 60 40 20 2011/ camp.>50% inf. 2012/camp.>50% inf. 0 may june july may june july august september october june july august september october june july august september june july august september october % infested samples CHERRIES STRAWBERRIES RASPBERRIES BLUEBERRIES BLACKBERRIES
MONITORING Why a reduced population growth in 2012? a a- PREVENTION AND CONTROL PROCEDURES b- CLIMATE Mass trapping(about 50000 traps) Sanitation procedures Better tuned used of chemicals b Mean daily temp. ( C) San Michele Winter Winter-Spring Summer
MONITORING CLIMATE winter - Lower Temperatures - Fewer precipitations A more difficult winter for flies? Mean daily temp. ( C) San Michele Total Rain (mm) 2 Dec/ 20 March 2010 308 2011 215,4 2012 50,2 Possible increase in mortality of OVERWINTERING individuals High mortality of spontaneous blueberry plants in the wild (blueberry is a summer host of SWD)
MONITORING CLIMATE Winter/Spring.1 1) Exceptionally warm climate in the second half of February and during March (the warmest March since 1921) Accumulation of Degree-Day (DD) 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 2010 2011 2012 accumulated degree day 25 March: 260DD (First activity of OW females) 0 gen feb mar apr mag giu lug ago set ott nov
MONITORING CLIMATE Winter/Spring.1 1) Exceptionally warm climate in the second half of February and during March (the warmest March since 1921) Accumulation of Degree-Day (DD) A strong stimulus for adults to leave overwintering site and exit the diapause. Confirmation of movements in the lowlands Week # Date Catches 9 27/2-4/3 1 12 19-25/3 1 13 26/3-1/4 3 + 2 14 2-8/4 6 + 6 6000 5000 4000 3000 2010 2011 2012 accumulated degree day 25 March: 260DD (First activity of OW females) 2000 1000 0 gen feb mar apr mag giu lug ago set ott nov
MONITORING CLIMATE Winter/Spring.2 1) Exceptionally warm climate in the second half of Februaryand duringmarch (the warmestmarch since 1921) Accumulation of Degree-Day(DD) A strong stimulus for adults to leave overwintering site and exit the diapause. 6000 5000 4000 3000 2010 2011 2012 accumulated degree day 25 March: 260DD (First activity of OW females) 2) Rapiddropoftemp. slow down ofdd accumulation 2000 1000 Interference with already active individuals? Relevant decrease in cherries prodution(both cultivatedand spontaneous) ca60%. Effects on first generations development? 0 gen feb mar apr mag giu lug ago set ott nov
MONITORING CLIMATE- Summer - Stasis in population growth: a critical period for SWD? - Increase in average temperatures -Highermaxtemp. in 2012 - Reduced precipitations S. MICHELE (205 m) PERGINE (475 m) YEAR C WEEK C WEEK 2010 32.5 33 32.1 33 2011 35.7 33 34.8 33 2012 36.5 34 36.2 34
MONITORING Why a reduced population growth in 2012? Mean daily temp. ( C) San Michele Colder & drier OW Winter Winter-Spring Precocious activation followed by unusual late cold climate OW / First generations Summer Higher max Temp. Summer matings
# ADULST / TRAP / WEEK MONITORING «DROSKIDRINK» in RED BOTTLES: A HIGH-PERFORMANCE TRAP APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DROSKIDRINK APPLE VINEGAR 55 TRAPS 62100 ADULTS CAUGHT 1129 ADULTS/TRAP 77 TRAPS 29700 ADULTS CAUGHT 386 ADULTS/TRAP DEC.
Talk overview What s going on in Trentino? -MONITORING IN TRENTINO -MODELING IN TRENTINO (but not only in Trentino)
MODELING MODIS satellite sensor derived LST maps microclimatic characteristics peculiar to complex terrains, which would not be visible in maps commonly derived from interpolated meteorological station data. Reconstructed daily land surface temperature (LST) data from satellites have been successfully used to predict areas of short term invasion of the invasive species [e.g. tiger mosquito, Neteler et al., 2011; Roiz et al., 2011) Land Surface Temperature (LST) maps allow temperature-based indicators to be derived in a GIS framework. We coupled information from DD models (Damus 2009, Coop 2010) with Modis derived LSt map with a GIS approach. To build predictive model with high resolution at the local geographic scale - First egg laying; first emergence
MODELING FIRST EGG LAYING BY FEMALES 2011 MARKUS NETELER Field data from 2011 show good overal fit with the produced map MARKUS NETELER, DUCCIO ROCCHINI http://gis.cri.fmach.it/modis-lst/
MODELING FIRST ADULTS EMERGENCE 2011 MARKUS NETELER Field data from 2011 show good overal fit with the produced map MARKUS NETELER, DUCCIO ROCCHINI http://gis.cri.fmach.it/modis-lst/
MODELING 2012 MARKUS NETELER MARKUS NETELER, DUCCIO ROCCHINI http://gis.cri.fmach.it/modis-lst/
MODELING Good overall fit with field data from 2012 2012 MARKUS NETELER MARKUS NETELER, DUCCIO ROCCHINI http://gis.cri.fmach.it/modis-lst/
Talk overview What s going on in Trentino? -MONITORING IN TRENTINO -MODELLING IN TRENTINO (but not only in Trentino) Where did the pest arrive and spread? -TRACKING THE ORIGIN/S OF THE INVASION
TRACKING THE SPREAD ORIGIN Tracking the origin of introduction in Europe -Understanding the introduction pathways -preventing new/recurrent colonization Simultaneous reports from Italy and Spain Calabria et al. 2012 Ciniet al. 2012
TRACKING THE SPREAD ORIGIN Geographic profiling: a new technique to identify the probable spreading center The Geographic Profiling function generates a surface where each pixel has a different priority score indicating the optimal search pattern for the sources of invasive species (Stevenson et al. 2012). Gp outperforms traditional techniques to find source population of invasive species (Stevenson et al. 2012).
TRACKING THE SPREAD ORIGIN Geoprofiling approach Parameters: from Stevenson et al. 2012 Python program Geoprof1_3.py Data: C. Baroffio, A. Escudero+ published reports and papers (e.g. Calabria et al., 2012, Suss & Costanzi 2011 ) Spatial resolution: Heterogeneity in reports not possible to use GPS data standardized using a 30X30 km grid. One point per cell. More than 70 locations (2008-2010) and more than 100 (2008-2011) Temporal resolution: we used presence data for years from 2008 to 2010 and 2008 to 2011. Before 2010 too few data to produced reliable results, after 2012 too much data: high monitoring campaign in some but not all region. The early post invasion period is crucial.
TRACKING THE SPREAD ORIGIN Only those countries where SWD is reported. e.g. China, Thailand, Vietnam, Japan, India...
TRACKING THE SPREAD ORIGIN FRUIT TRADE FROM EAST ASIA TO EUROPE: import of SWD host fresh fruits 0809 Apricots, cherries, peaches, nectarines, plums & sloes, fresh 080610 grapes, fresh 200 200 180 tons 180 160 140 120 100 80 france spain italy tons 160 140 120 100 80 france spain italy 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 081090 Fruits, fresh nes 2500 2000 tons 1500 1000 france spain italy 500 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Thanks for your attention