Hurricanes in a Warming World Jeff Donnelly Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Hurricanes impacting the NE US Hurricane Sandy Was Hurricane Sandy a freak of nature? Or had we just been lucky? What are the prospects for the Cape and Islands?
Hurricane Sandy SLOSH Simulation
Hurricane Sandy Storm Tide in NYC sea level in 2012 (ft) 15 10 predicted tide (ft) surge+tide (ft) Water level relative to mean 5 0-5 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 24:00 Time October 29, 2012
Hurricane Damage Annual U.S. Losses in 2005 dollars Billions USD Year Pielke et al., 2008
Historical Hurricanes
Historical Hurricanes 1938 1954 1960 1944 1869
Historical Hurricanes 1938 1954 1960 1944 1869
1821 Hurricane SLOSH Simulation
1821 Hurricane vs. Sandy in NYC 15 15 Water level rela ative to mean sea level in 1821 (ft) 10 5 0-5 predicted tide (ft) surge+tide (ft) Water level l relative to mean sea lev vel in 2012 (ft) 10 5 0-5 predicted tide (ft) surge+tide (ft) -10 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 24:00 Time September 3, 1821 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 24:00 Time October 29, 2012
2012 Storm tides in lower Manhattan Hurricanes Winter Storm 1996 1996 1993 1992 1991 1987 1985 1984 1968 1966 1962 1961 1960 1960 1953 1950 1944 1938 1893 1821 1788 15 10 5 0 Date Maximum Water Level above MSL (ft)
Why so much damage from Sandy? Surf City, NJ 1872 Incorporated 1894 Current population ~1200 Surf City, NJ 2010
Hurricane Damage Annual U.S. Losses in 2005 dollars Billions USD Year Pielke et al., 2008
Hurricane Damage Annual U.S. Losses If Historic Hurricanes Hit Today s Coastline (accounting for increasing coastal population and wealth) 1926 Miami 140 billion $ Billion ns USD 1938 38 billion $ 1954 Carol 40 billion $ 2005 Katrina 81 billion $ Rita 10 billion $ Wilma 20 billion $ Year Pielke et al., 2008
Sea-Level Rise 0.5 0-0.5 feet -1-1.5
1938 Hurricane Surge
1938 Hurricane Impacts June 1938 September 1938 March 2012 Westhampton Beach
1635 Hurricane
Measured and Modeled Storm Tides Woods Hole, MA Monthly highest water Woods Hole tide gauge (above MHW) SLOSH simulation for Woods Hole (above MHW) SLOSH simulation for Woods Hole (above astronomical tide) meters 4 1635 feet 15 3 1815 1938 1954 (Carol) 10 2 1 1727 1804 1869 1944 1960 (Donna) 1991 (Bob) Irene Sandy 5 0 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 Year 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 0 Boldt et al. (2010)
What if Sandy hit SE New England?
What if Sandy hit SE New England?
What if Sandy hit SE New England? Woods Hole, MA Monthly highest water Woods Hole tide gauge (above MHW) SLOSH simulation for Woods Hole (above MHW) SLOSH simulation for Woods Hole (above astronomical tide) meters 4 1635 Hypothetical SE New England Sandy landfall feet 15 3 1815 1938 1954 (Carol) 10 2 1 1727 1804 1869 1944 1960 (Donna) 1991 (Bob) Irene Sandy 5 0 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 Year 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 0 Boldt et al. (2010)
Sedimentary Records of Hurricane Strikes Overwash sand layer Overwash sand layer 1 foot WHOI Overwash sand layer Overwash sand layer
Prehistoric Hurricanes and Climate Hurricane-induced Sand Layers Age (years CE) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Overwash record Salt Pond, MA 1675 1635 1991 (Bob) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 coarse anomaly (% >63 mm)
Prehistoric Hurricanes and Climate Hurricane-induced Sand Layers Age (years CE) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Overwash record Salt Pond, MA 1675 1635 1991 (Bob) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 coarse anomaly (% >63 mm) Basin-wide increases related to conditions in the tropics Increased East Coast activity driven by Gulf Stream dynamics
What Might the Future Hold? Rate of Sea-Level Rise Will Accelerate
What Might the Future Hold? N. Atl. Tropical SST N. Atl. Tropical Cyclones N. Hem. Mean Temp From Coumou and Rahmstorf, 2012 Nature Climate Change
What Might the Future Hold? N. Atl. Tropical SST N. Atl. Tropical Cyclones N. Hem. Mean Temp Frequency of Hurricanes Could Increase Using IPCC AR4 models Worst Case Best Case Modern
What Might the Future Hold? Frequency of Hurricanes Could Increase From Emanuel, 2013 PNAS Using IPCC AR5 models
Summary Was Hurricane Sandy a freak of nature? Or had we just been lucky?
Summary Was Hurricane Sandy a freak of nature? Or had we just been lucky? Cape and Islands have been relatively fortunate over the last 50+ years (unfortunately this was a time of unprecedented coastal development)
Summary Was Hurricane Sandy a freak of nature? Or had we just been lucky? Cape and Islands have been relatively fortunate over the last 50+ years (unfortunately this was a time of unprecedented coastal development) Storms of far greater intensity than Hurricane Sandy (and Bob) impacted the region historically (and prehistorically)
Summary Was Hurricane Sandy a freak of nature? Or had we just been lucky? Cape and Islands have been relatively fortunate over the last 50+ years (unfortunately this was a time of unprecedented coastal development) Storms of far greater intensity than Hurricane Sandy (and Bob) impacted the region historically (and prehistorically) Over the last two millennium historically unprecedented intense hurricane activity occurred
Summary Increased hurricane activity along the eastern US seaboard is possible in the coming decades
Summary Increased hurricane activity along the eastern US seaboard is possible in the coming decades The impacts of future hurricane activity will be greatly exacerbated by continuing sea-level rise and coastal population growth, regardless of whether or not we experience significant increases in hurricane landfalls
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