1 Analysis of Industrialization, Urbanization and Land-use Change in East Asia According to the DPSER Framework Hidefumi IMURA*, Jin CHEN*, Shinji KANEKO** and Toru MATSUMOTO* * Institute of Environmental Systems, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyushu University ** Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Abstract The most intensive interactions between human beings and the environment take place in cities and their peripheries. Urbanization causes land use /cover changes, while at the same time it brings about increasing environmental loads due to expanding use of energy and resources and impacts on human health and ecosystems. This paper presents a framework for analyzing the interrelations between land-use/cover changes and environmental impacts of urbanization based on the analysis framework of DPSER (Driving Force-Pressure-State-Effect-Response) model. Some preliminary study results are presented to demonstrate the applicability of the model focusing on rapidly urbanizing areas in China. 1. Introduction Although urbanization is proceeding all over the world at an unprecedented rate, it is especially outstanding in Asia in terms of its scale and speed. In particular, urbanization in East Asia including Japan, Korea and China exhibits unique characteristics in that it has taken place and going on in close tie with the rapid economic development and industrialization of the nations. Japan experienced a rapid urbanization and industrialization in its rapid economic growth period in the 1950s and 1960s. During this period, newly industrialized areas were created on the land reclaimed from the sea, and a large number of workers and their families were attracted to move to industrial cities with the development of heavy and chemical industries. In addition, a series of environment problems such as serious air and water pollution and decisive damages to ecosystems were caused in urban and suburban areas as a result of industrial production expansion. Korea experienced the similar phenomena to that of Japan in her rapid economic growth period that started in the 1970s, while the Coastal Region of China also accelerated its pace of industrial development and urbanization after the country adopted its economic reform and opening policy in 1978. Human interactions with the environment are at their most intense in cities. Human effects upon the global environment will largely be urban effects. Cities' environmental effects will span the globe, for their demands for food, water, and energy link them to the periphery at both near and remote locations. Because of the dense concentration and large scale of human activities in cities, the effects of even a small per capita change in negative environmental impacts may have large cumulative effects globally. The change in land-use is the result of urbanization, and at the same time it is the cause of the number of urban environmental problems, reflecting the direct and indirect interactions between human activities and the natural environment. Study on the mechanisms of land-use change associated with the industrialization and urbanization is essential not only for detecting the global environmental change but also for formulating sustainable development strategies on the local scale. This paper presents an analytical framework of the DPSER (Driving Force-Pressure-State-Effect-Response) model for understanding the mechanisms of urbanization, industrialization, land-use changes and their environmental implications. Some preliminary studies, focusing on rapidly urbanizing areas in China, are also conducted to demonstrate the applicability and validity of the framework. 2. DPSER Analytical Framework The PSR (Pressure-State-Response) model was developed by the OECD in its work on the State of the
2 Environment Reports and environmental data compendium (OECD (1)). This model has been widely used in various international and national studies such as those by UNCSD (United Nations Committee for Sustainable Development)(UNCSD (2)). The DPSER (Driving Force-Pressure-State-Effect-Response) model tries to describe the mechanisms of environmental changes more systematic and precise way than the simpler PSR model by adding Driving Force and Effect which can be separated from Pressure and State respectively. We apply the DPSER framework to analyze the urban environmental problems generated in the process of industrialization and urbanization. Fig.1 demonstrates the conceptual framework of the DPSER model for urban environment problems. The interactions between human activities in cities and the environment are particularly concerned with the flows of energy and resources such as air, water, food, raw materials and land which are needed to support cities. A more concrete example applied in land-use/cover change is also presented in Fig.2. Economy Politics Society Culture Resources Ecosystem D riving Force Economic growth P ressure S tate E ffect R esponse Laws, regulations Environmental investment, taxation Environmental Awareness, Education Increasing energy, resource consumption Land use change Air and water pollution, decreasing forest area Human health damage, change in ecosystem Recycling, Eco-technology Fig. 1 Conceptual framework of DPSER model for urban environmantal problem Land use planning, Driving Force Human Activities Economic development Population growth Response Industrialization Urbanization Life style Change in life style E conomic Develop policy Population policy Pressure Demand for urban land Demand for meat,vegetables State Land-use and land cover change Change agriculture structure U rban planning R egulation Monitoring system Effect Damage to ecosystem(heat island) Food problem Fig. 2 A concrete example of DPSER model for land-use change 3. Integrated Environmental Information System: IEIS As a basis of conducting studies according to the above framework, an integrated environmental information system (IEIS) of East Asia is being constructed with an emphasis on city and local level data. The IEIS aims to provide a platform for collecting, storing and analyzing a wide variety of economic, social and environmental data and
3 information related to the urban environment. It can audio-visually demonstrate the data by way of videos, pictures, maps and graphs with the help of user friendly interfaces. It will serve as an effective tool for us to analyze the history and current situation of the economic development, industrial structural transformation, urbanization and the land use cover changes in cities and local areas. Fig. 3 demonstrates the design and major components of the IEIS. Text Statistical Data Vector Data Mesh Data Knowledge Numerical data Maps, Image Text data Landsat TM Data Statistic Analysis Spatial Analysis Visualization Application Analysis Module Module Module Module(CA model) Interface Fig. 3 Conceptual Design of Integrated Environmental Information System(IEIS) 4. Preliminary Case Study Results 4.1 Background: Industrialization, Urbanization and Environment in China Industrialization and urbanization in China have far reaching implications for both local and global environment, in view of her large population and high population density as well as the rapid economic growth she has accomplished and expected to continue in the coming decades. Therefore, this paper takes up some areas in China for conducting case studies on interrelations among industrialization, urbanization and land-use change according to the DPSER framework. For understanding the whole features of these interrelations and their charac teristics and specificity of particular regions, both nationwide studies based on statistical data available for nearly 2600 counties, and detailed case studies on some selected cities and areas should be made (Fig.4.). Nationwide Studies Data Data by by 2600 2600 counties I I ndustrial ndustrial product product A A gricultural gricultural product product U U rbanized areas areas I I rrigated cropland O O thers thers Specific Case Study Cities E E conomic conditions I I ndustrial ndustrial Structure Structure D D etailed LUCC LUCC Data Data I I nput/output of of Energy && Material O O thers thers Fig. 4 A research idea for industrialization, urbanization and environmental problems in China The change in agricultural population change by county in China for 1987-1995 is demonstrated in Fig.5, while the industrial production of 1995 in rural areas is shown in Fig.6. It can be found that the decreasing trend of agricultural population is remarkable in the coastal region with high industrial production, such as Yangtze River Delta
4 Area, Pan Bohai Sea Area and Pearl River Delta Area. This means that the magnitude and speed of urbanization and industrialization in these areas are most striking in China. In addition, each of the above areas exhibits unique characteristics in the mechanisms and processes of industrialization and urbanization due to the economic and social background deeply related to the history, culture and natural geographical conditions of the areas. Therefore, more North-East Region Pan Bohai Sea Pan Bohai Sea Region Yangtze River Basin Yangtze River Delta Yangtze River Basin Yangtze River Delta Pearl-River Delta Pearl-River Delta Decrease -3% -1% 0% 1% 3% Increase 0 0.2 1 2 4 10 Million Yuan Fig. 5 Agricultural population changes in China(1987-1995) Fig. 6 Industrial production in rural areas of China(1995) attention should be paid to the specificity of the areas and more detailed case studies for selected cities are necessary. 4.2 State of the Environment In many cases, land-use/cover change is a direct manifestation of the changes in the state of environment, providing a good basis for the understanding of the problems behind. For case studies, Shenzhen City located on the south coast of Guangdong Province and belonging to Pearl River delta area, and Wushi City in Yangtze River delta area are taken up to investigate the relationship between urbanization, industrialization and land-use change. The Landsat Data of Shenzhen City in 1980,1988,1994 and those of Wushi City in 1984,1988,1994 were collected to analyze the land-use change. Land use/cover change detection using multi-spectral remote sensor data was conducted, including the steps of pre-processing, land-use classification and change detection procedures. The overall accuracy of land use classification is about 80-90 percent, or 0.71-0.85 in terms of Kappa coefficient of agreement; it provides a fairly good base for the further analysis of land-use change. (Chen et al. (3)) The analyzed land-use change result in Shenzhen City and Wushi City are shown in Fig.7 and Fig.8. The first common characteristic of the land-use change in the two cities is the drastic increase of the urban land, converted from the agricultural land, especially from the cultivated land. The second characteristic is the land-use change associated with the structural changes that took place within agricultural sector; i.e., the change from the land use for grain cultivation to that for fishery and the production of more profitable products such as fruits and vegetables. The demand of land for the latter is growing rapidly stimulated by the increasing urban population and the rising living standard of city dwellers. On the other hand, there are distinctive differences between the two cities with respect to the spatial expansion mode of urban land. In Shenzhen City, urban land is expanding along the traffic lines starting from the city center, while a number of newly developed small towns are dispersedly formed in the suburbs of Wushi City. Remote Sensing (RS) and GIS techniques can describe the pattern of land-use change as demonstrated above. Understanding of urbanization mechanisms and prediction of land-use change, however, require further studies that are beyond the capabilities of GIS and RS. Cellular automata model (CA), for example, can be adopted for modeling the spatial dynamics of regional economic development, urbanization, land use and environmental changes. A constrained, stochastic CA-based model has been explored to represent and specify the characteristics of land-use change. The model includes a large number of cell states corresponding to a variety of land-uses. The transition rules are defined
1980 1988 Urban Water Paddy field Orchard Shrub & Grassland in 1980 Forest 1994 Wetland Barren land Fig. 7 Land-use changes of Shenzhen city in 1980,1988,1994 1984 1994 1988 Urban Paddy field Dry farmland Needleleaf Forest Broadleaf Forest Fig. 8 Land-use changes of Wushi city in 1984,1988,1994 Water taking into account the inherent suitability of the cell for each of the active land uses as well as the aggregate effect of the various land-uses within a neighborhood of the cell and the effect of stochastic perturbations. The parameters of model are calibrated by the Monte-Carlo method based on the past data of land-use change. The simulation result of Shenzhen City in the period of 1980-1988 is shown in Fig.9, where the value of coincidence index is about 0.7.
6 Past (Landsat MSS) Present (Landsat TM) Future 1980 1988? 2020 CA Model 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 Fig. 9 Reproduction of past Land-use changes by cellular automata model 4.3 Driving Force and Pressure As a further study, interrelations among industrialization, urbanization and land-use change have been analyzed by using multivariable regression method based on the relevant maps and socioeconomic data. Determining factors chosen to explain the interrelations above are urban population, GDP, industrial structure, foreign direct investment (FDI) and investment in capital construction. The analysis result for Shenzhen City by stepwise regression analysis is shown in Table.1. It indicates that the urban population growth, industrial development of the tertiary sector and the foreign direct investment play key roles in the change of land-use in the City during 1980-1994. On the other hand, a similar analysis for Wushi City shows that the industrial development of the secondary sector, especially the role of TVEs (township and village enterprises) has been the most important factor for causing the land-use change. Both of these analyses support the idea that industrialization and urbanization are the most significant driving force for causing the land-use change in the coastal region of China Table 1. The results of stepwise regression analysis on land-use changes Variables Coefficient Standard Coefficient Value Value Value Significance Standard Error Partial correlation coefficient correlation coefficient Urban Population 0.544 0.848 45.475 6.744 0.000 ** 0.081 0.905 0.946 Tertiary Industry share 1.469 0.173 6.431 2.536 0.030 * 0.579 0.626 0.149 Foreign direct investment 5.066 0.569 11.974 3.460 0.006 ** 1.464 0.738 0.865 Constant -73.009 11.993 3.463 0.006 ** 21.082 Precision ** Significant at 0.01level,* Significant at 0.05 level Coefficient of determination 0.977 Multiple correlation coefficient 0.988 4.4 Effect: Urban climatic response to land-use change Land-use change might bring some impacts on urban and suburban ecosystems. Changes in vegetation and land
7 topography might increase the risks to environmental degradation and natural disasters such as soil erosion and flood. Another ecological impact of land-use change in urban area is the heat island effect, which is regarded as climatic response to land-use change caused by urbanization. As enough meteorological date have not been available for Chinese cities, we will discuss the climatic effects induced by land-use change based on the existing studies conducted in Japanese cities(shibata et al. (4)). Fig.12 shows the land-use change of Fukuoka City from 1925 to1988, and Fig.13 the simulation results of the expanding heat islands in the city by using three-dimensional turbulence closure model developed by Mellor and Yamada (Mellor et al. (5)). It is demonstrated that the temperatures of the high temperature areas in 1988 are 0.5-2higher than those in 1925, and the high temperature areas have become larger in accordance with the urban growth. Others Urban Forest Water Dry farmland Paddy field Wetland Residential area 1988 Landsat TM 1925 1:2500 Map The Geographical Survey Institute Water Barren land Forest Orchard Sandy beach Grass land Track field Golf field Paddy field Apartment Urban Building Metal Concrete Asphalt Railway Fig. 10 Land-use changes in Fukuoka city from 1925 to 1988 1925 1988 Fig. 11 Climatic response of land-use changes in Fukuoka city from 1925 to 1988
8 5. Concluding remarks Rapid economic growth, industrialization, and urbanization in East-Asian countries have been accompanied by a number of environmental problems. This paper has presented the DPSER framework for analyzing the inter relations among industrialization, urbanization and land-use change, and some preliminary case study results for Chinese cities are demonstrated. Land-use plays a key role in our analyses to describe the environmental changes caused by human activities. Case studies for China shows that the conversion of cultivated land to urban land is drastically increasing, as a result of rapid industrialization and urbanization. Urban climatic change is an example of environmental impacts caused by land-use change. Case studies for Japanese cities reveal that the size and intensity of heat island in urban areas are growing, and similar changes must be taking place in Chinese cities. As a further study, the dynamic DPSER model can be conceived as illustrated in Fig 13. Cities are part of the natural world: they are integral parts of such large processes as the hydrological, carbon, and nitrogen cycles, rather than being apart from those cycles. What affects these cycles affects cities, and how cities change the cycles affects the globe. Cities also affect and are affected by man-made cycles, such as the materials cycle. Further studies should be made on successful innovations in urban environmental management, on ways to achieve sustainable cities, and on systems of environmental indicators abound. Collaborative data collection under the terms of the urban measurement protocol is necessary, and land use data will be a core of this exercise. Driving force Module Remote Sensing ex. SPOT 3-D information 2-D distribution 3-dimensional LUCC LUCC Model ex. CA Socioeconomic Factors -Urbanization -Industrialization Response Module -infrastructure -technology -laws, regulations -investment, funding L C A Pressure Module State Module Effect Module Fig.12 Framework of dynamic DPSER model for LUCC References 1) (1994): Environmental indicator, OECD core set, p.159. 2) (1996): Indicators of Sustainable Development, Methodology Sheets for CSD Forth Session, NewYork, p. 367. 3) Chen jin, Ryo,Fujikura, Hidefumi Imura(1998): Study in the Relationship between Economic Development and Land-use Changes, Environment Systems Research Vol.26, pp.279-288. 4) Manabu Shibata, Hidefumi Imura(1998): A Numerical Model Study of Urban Climte Change in the Past: A Case Study of Fukuoka City Area, Environment Systems Research, Vol.26, pp.289-296. 5) Mellor, G.L and Yamada(1974): A Hierarchy of Turbulence Closure Models for Planetary Boundary Layer, J. Atmos. Sci., Vol.31, No. 5, pp.1791-1806.