How fast can a falcon fly? DEVEX 9 th May 2012 Peter Brand
Overview Overview Timeline Appraisal Development Performance Potential Summary / Conclusions
Overview - Location Falcon Tern Kestrel Shetland Islands
Overview
Overview Tern North
Timeline 1979 Shell/Esso licensed the area (P296) 1995 2000 1980 1982 1984 1987 1991 1999 1996 1988 199219851997 1981 1983 1989 1993 1998 1986 1990 1994 Shell/Esso discovered Falcon with 210/25a-9 exploration well 2001 2003 2006 2008 2004 20072002 2005 TAQA bought the Tern field TAQA bought the area containing Falcon Drill 210/25a-10 (explore H block) Drill 210/25a-10Z (appraise Falcon) Commence Run subsea completion development Complete project First oil
Timeline Regulatory Enablers Fallow acreage initiative? Field redetermination on economic grounds Possible to carve-out from the Tern PRT area IF Falcon had proved connected to Tern Small Fields Allowance
Appraisal Seismic section Well logs RFTs Faulting Appraisal plan Results
Appraisal - Seismic section SW Tern Main Field G Block H Block I Block Falcon NE Abercromby Kimmeridge Clay Heather Base Mid Ness Shale Cormorant 1 Paleosol Basement
Appraisal Well Logs TA05S1 210/25a-9 Upper Ness Lower Ness /Etive OWC 8500 ft TVDSS ODT 8105 ft TVDSS Plotted in TVD and hung on Base Mid-Ness Shale for thickness comparison
Appraisal - RFT data TA05S1 Jan94 Solid = measured Open = simulated Simulation model provides reasonably good match 25a-10z to depletion May10 data 25a-9 May00 Pinit E1 Dec97 P2 Jul01
Appraisal - Tern and Tern North faulting F-G and I-Falcon are major sealing faults, with Brent/Brent but no good res connection G-H and H-I faults are lesser faults, with minor good res juxtaposition towards their crests Juxtaposition caused by anticlinal flexure towards fault block crests F G H I Main Tern Field IOWC 8258 Internal faults can seal up to 1200psi ΔP on production G Block IOWC 8117 8120 Initial oil fill - Partially sealing fault compartments filled down past their individual spill points fill and spill Partial sealing becomes evident during production Tern initial seal requirement is 120psi (1450 column, ΔP oil/water 0.08pis/ft) Tern North 220 column - seal requirement 18psi Falcon IOWC 8500
Appraisal - Plan Updip targets from old well with indications of oil in Upper Ness First branch to H block, upside location Second branch to NE of old well, with higher CoS, planned as keeper Fast Track Appraise while developing Avoids winter working Fast track procurement, based on delivery Significant pre-sanction commitments Approval cycle discussed with DECC Environmental Deliveries discussed with key suppliers
Appraisal - Results H-block well wet Falcon N well (210/25a-10Z) 23 shallow to prognosis 20 more net reservoir Slightly higher porosity so higher permeability 5 deeper OWC Falcon S Falcon N Plotted in TVD and hung on Base Mid-Ness Shale for thickness comparison
Development Modelling Schematic Development plan Lessons
Development - Modelling New seismic interpretation 2 new wells Structurally quite complex 79 faults Property modelling relatively simple 100m x 100m x 20 layers for simulation Primary purpose: Falcon development plan Secondary purposes: Kestrel and G-block development planning Falcon North Falcon South
Development - Modelling Oil in place: Falcon South 13 mmbbl Falcon North 18 mmbbl G Block H I Falcon Tern Main L Preliminary initialization of new reservoir model (oil saturation) Kestrel North
Development - Schematic Also considered: Tie-in at Kestrel SSIV (near Tern) New riser at Tern
Development - Key project risks, May 2010 Approvals schedule not under TAQA control Kestrel back-out estimation Cost growth due to high industry activity Schedule Drill rig availability for 2011 completion Tight schedule to first oil date (tree, controls, pipe, umbilical) Operability/Integrity Limitations of existing subsea umbilical for deploying chemicals for flow assurance Operability/integrity risks on existing Kestrel infrastructure, which had been in use since 2001 Additional risks Uncertainties on the initial flow rate and recoverable reserves After thorough analysis the cheapest route, via Kestrel, was selected
Development - Plan Approach Keep it simple Minimise impact on platform Minimise CAPEX Scope Complete well and run subsea xmas tree Install new production and gas lift pipelines and an umbilical
Development - Lessons Scope growth in platform modifications Late addition of Kestrel flexible riser replacement Obsolescence of Kestrel controls infrastructure identified late Subsea construction/installation required extra TAQA support Start-up was delayed by incomplete instrumentation commissioning Entire Appraisal-Development project under budget First oil < 1 month late compared to stretch target
Performance and forecasts Oil rate Water cut History match: pressure
bopd Performance oil rate Has exceeded expectations so far oil rate 9000 8000 7000 6000 'Low' case 'Base' case 'High' case Actual New forecast 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17
Performance water cut Is similar to predictions water cut 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 'Low' case 'Base' case 'High' case Actual New Forecast 0.10 0.00 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17
Pressure (psia) Performance - pressure Matched with additional aquifer strength and internal reservoir connectivity Well Falcon North Bottom Hole Pressures 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 Model 1000 Actual 500 0 Jul-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12
Potential Plan: Drill Abercromby prospect (next fault block north) Risk 1 fault seal Risk 2 migration Option: Drill Falcon 2 nd producer and/or injector Depending on performance Maintaining history matched model
Summary / Conclusions First oil schedule met (almost). On budget On reflection the schedule was very aggressive in a busy market This timeline would not be achievable today (longer regulatory timeframes, even tighter services markets) Better than expected performance (better reservoir) Encouraged to explore further Considering further development Key project risks: Approvals schedule not under TAQA control Kestrel back-out estimation Cost growth due to high industry activity Schedule Drill rig availability for 2011 completion Tight schedule to first oil date (tree, controls, pipe, umbilical) Operability/Integrity Limitations of existing subsea umbilical for deploying chemicals for flow assurance Operability/integrity risks on existing Kestrel infrastructure, which has been in use since 2001 Additional risks Uncertainties on the initial flow rate and recoverable reserves
Acknowledgements TAQA Bratani Ltd TAQA - project team ADIL - development planning support DECC - fast turnaround of approvals
Finally, by the way How fast can a Falcon fly? RSPB: 60 mph (level flight) BBC: >180 mph (diving) National Geographic: 242 mph (diving) TAQA: acquisition to first oil in 22 months Bill Buchanan/USFWS
Performance Pressure Build-up Analysis Well Location Kh : 36000 mdft K : 148 md Pwsi : 2970 psia (July 2011) Rectangle with const. Pressure Boundary Rectangle Size: 2220 x 7620 ft Rectangle Pore volume 170 MMbbl Const Pressure (Kestrel)