RISK ASSESSMENT IDENTIFYING HAZARDS

RISK ASSESSMENT IDENTIFYING HAZARDS In order to properly identify mitigation strategies and projects, the hazards that may affect Van Buren County must be identified Iowa s foundation for hazard mitigation is based on a hazard analysis and risk assessment that is comprehensive and multi-hazard This means that multiple hazards that can possibly occur anywhere in the state are considered and analyzed, and that the risk that each hazard poses is assessed in terms of a disaster or emergency situation that can be created from that hazard Current hazard analysis and risk assessments, mostly from local plans that have been received at HLSEM from local jurisdictions, were used to accumulate a total of all hazards that occur in the State The result of this input was the identification of 40 hazards in two major categories, Natural (16) and Human-Caused/Combination hazards (24) The hazards are as follows Natural: Thunderstorms/Lightning, Tornadoes, Windstorms, Hailstorms, Severe Winter Storms, Extreme Heat, Expansive Soils, Earthquakes, Landslide, River Flood, Flash Flood, Drought, Grass or Wildland fire, Sink Holes, Dam Failure, Levee Failure Human-Caused/Combination: Fixed Hazardous Materials Incident, Transportation Hazardous Materials Incident, Radiological Transportation, Air Transportation Incident, Communications Failure, Energy Failure, Highway Transportation Incident, Pipeline Transportation Incident, Rail Transportation Incident, Fixed Radiological Incident, Waterway Incident; Enemy Attack, Public Disorder, Bio-Terrorism; Agro-Terrorism, Chemical Terrorism, Radiological Terrorism, Conventional Terrorism, Cyber Terrorism; Human Disease Incident; Human Disease Pandemic, Animal/Plant/Crop Disease, Structural Fire, Structural Failure The Hazard Profiles section lists the potential hazards to the city that were identified by the planning committee This section also discusses previous occurrences of the hazards, the areas of the city most at risk from each hazard, and the populations most at risk By identifying the hazards and quantifying the risks, the city can better assess current mitigation strategies, develop future mitigation strategies and identify needed mitigation projects It is important to note that the focus of mitigation is on reducing long-term risks of damage or threats to public health and safety caused by hazards and their effects Thus, in some cases the hazards identified for mitigation will not include all of, or the same hazards, identified for preparedness, response or recovery Hazards were identified through discussion by the Van Buren County Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee under direction from the contract planner and research using documents provided by FEMA and the State Emergency Management Division at a meeting held November 18, 2008 Hazards were eliminated if there were no historical occurrence and Committee members felt there was no chance of occurrence in the future or the committee felt the city had adequate resources to contend with the hazard or the committee felt that based on a presentation of facts as in the case of hail storms that there were no mitigation efforts that could reduce the minimal impact of the hazard 62

HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR VAN BUREN COUNTY, IOWA At a meeting of the Van Buren County Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee held on November 18, 2008, the following probabilities for hazards that the county may be vulnerable to was determined Natural Hazards Has Occurred May Occur Low Potential to Occur Hazard X Drought X X Earthquake X Expansive Soils X Extreme Heat X Flash Flood X Hailstorm X X Landslide X River Flood X Severe Winter Storm X Thunderstorm and Lightning X Tornado X Windstorm X Douds X Sink Holes X X Levee Failure X Dam Failure X Grass or Wildland Fire Human-Caused/Combination Hazards X Air Transportation Incident X Communications Failure X Energy Failure X Fixed Facility Hazardous Materials Incident X Fixed Radiological Incident X Highway Transportation Incident X Pipeline Incident No rail Rail Transportation Incident X Transportation Hazardous Materials Incident X Radiological Transportation Incident X Waterway Incident X X Enemy Attack X Public Disorder X Agro-terrorism X Bio-terrorism X X Chemical Terrorism X Terrorism Conventional X Cyber Terrorism X Radiological Terrorism X Animal/Plant/Crop Disease X Human Disease Incident X Human Disease Pandemic X Structural Failure X Structural Fire 63

NATURAL HAZARDS TO INCLUDE HAZARD Flash Floods Hailstorm River Flooding Severe Winter Storm Thunderstorm and Lightning Tornado Windstorm Dam Failure Extreme Heat Drought Landslide COMMUNITIES IDENTIFIED WITH Birmingham, Milton, Stockport, Van Buren County Unincorporated Birmingham, Bonaparte, Cantril, Farmington, Keosauqua, Milton, Mount Sterling, Stockport, Van Buren County Unincorporated Bonaparte, Farmington, Keosauqua, Van Buren County Unincorporated Birmingham, Bonaparte, Cantril, Farmington, Keosauqua, Milton, Mount Sterling, Stockport, Van Buren County Unincorporated Birmingham, Bonaparte, Cantril, Farmington, Keosauqua, Milton, Mount Sterling, Stockport, Van Buren County Unincorporated Birmingham, Bonaparte, Cantril, Farmington, Keosauqua, Milton, Mount Sterling, Stockport, Van Buren County Unincorporated Birmingham, Bonaparte, Cantril, Farmington, Keosauqua, Milton, Mount Sterling, Stockport, Van Buren County Unincorporated Bonaparte, Farmington, Keosauqua, Van Buren County Unincorporated Birmingham, Bonaparte, Cantril, Farmington, Keosauqua, Milton, Mount Sterling, Stockport, Van Buren County Unincorporated Birmingham, Bonaparte, Cantril, Farmington, Keosauqua, Milton, Mount Sterling, Stockport, Van Buren County Unincorporated Keosauqua, Van Buren County Unincorporated 64

POTENTIAL HUMAN CAUSED/COMBINATION HAZARDS TO INCLUDE HAZARD COMMUNITIES IDENTIFIED WITH Energy Failure Highway Transportation Incident Structural Fire Birmingham, Bonaparte, Cantril, Bonaparte, Farmington, Keosauqua, Milton, Mount Sterling, Stockport, Van Buren County Unincorporated Cantril, Milton Birmingham, Bonaparte, Cantril, Bonaparte, Farmington, Keosauqua, Milton, Mount Sterling, Stockport, Van Buren County Unincorporated Stockport Birmingham, Cantril, Milton, Stockport Birmingham Cantril Birmingham, Stockport Milton Milton Communications Failure Structural Failure Pipeline Incident Agroterrorism Bioterrorism Chemical Terrorism Conventional Terrorism Bonaparte, Farmington, Keosauqua, Stockport, Van Buren County Unincorporated Fixed Facility Hazardous Materials Incident Birmingham, Keosauqua, Stockport Human Disease Pandemic Birmingham, Bonaparte, Cantril, Farmington, Keosauqua, Milton, Mount Sterling, Stockport, Van Buren County Unincorporated 65

VAN BUREN COUNTY HAZARDS Natural Hazards Flash Floods Hailstorms River Flooding Severe Winter Storms Thunderstorm & Lightning Tornado Windstorm Dam Failure Extreme Heat Drought Landslide Human Caused/Combination Hazards Energy Failure Highway Transportation Incident Structural Fire Communications Failure Structural Failure Pipeline Incident Agro-Terrorism Bio-terrorism Chemical Terrorism Conventional Terrorism Fixed Facility Hazardous Materials Incident Human Disease Pandemic 66

The table below summarizes how these hazards were identified and why the Planning Committee selected them for further analysis Hazard How Identified Why Identified Flash Flood Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) Planning Committee HSEMD NCDC records Hailstorm River Flood Severe Winter Storm Thunderstorm and Lightning Tornado Windstorm Planning Committee NCDC records FEMA publications HSEMD Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) Planning Committee HSEMD NCDC records HSEMD NCDC records FEMA publications National Weather Bureau Planning Committee Planning Committee NCDC records FEMA publications NOAA probability maps HSEMD Planning Committee NCDC records FEMA publications NOAA probability maps HSEMD Planning Committee NCDC records FEMA publications NOAA probability maps HSEMD Flash Flood history in Van Buren County, in particular recent flash flood events in 2008 and 2010 Van Buren County experiences several hailstorms annually, some of which cause damage to structures, autos and agricultural crops Flood history in Van Buren County, particularly along the Des Moines River Disaster declarations Van Buren County location and climate History of annual winter events Potential impact on citizens Van Buren County experiences several thunderstorms annually, some of which produce lightning that damages structures Van Buren County has a history of tornados Straight line winds with a velocity of 60 miles-per-hour or more frequently strike Van Buren County Dam Failure Planning Committee History of River Flooding along Des Moines River History of flood management issues on Red Rock Dam Extreme Heat Planning Committee HSEMD NCDC records FEMA publications History of extreme heat events Potential impact on citizens and agricultural base Van Buren County location and climate 67

Hazard How Identified Why Identified Drought Planning Committee NCDC records HSEMD History of extreme heat events History of periods lacking precipitation Van Buren County location and Landslide Energy Failure Highway Transportation Incident Structural Fire Communications Failure Structural Failure Planning Committee HSEMD Planning Committee Van Buren County EMA Local utility providers, Alliant Utility History of electrical power outages in Van Buren County Planning Committee Van Buren County Sheriff s Office accident records Planning Committee HLSEM Fire Departments of Van Buren County State Fire Marshall s Office records Planning Committee HSEMD Van Buren County Emergency Management Coordinator Planning Committee Van Buren County Emergency Management Coordinator climate History of landslide events Van Buren County location and climate Health and welfare of Van Buren County residents Critical infrastructure, business and residential properties are dependent upon energy for sustenance History of transportation incidents in Van Buren County Highway systems going through Van Buren County Van Buren County Secondary roads system Importance of protecting city properties Annual fire incidents Age and condition of structures in Van Buren County Lack of building/fire inspection ordinances in Van Buren County Importance of maintaining communications--particularly during hazard events Identification of structures prone to failure in communities Lack of building codes and demolition ordinances 68

Hazard How Identified Why Identified Pipeline Transportation Incident Agro-terrorism Bio-terrorism Chemical Terrorism Conventional Terrorism Fixed Facility Hazardous Materials Incident Human Disease Pandemic Planning Committee HSEMD Fire Departments of Van Buren County Energy providers and pipeline companies with lines in Van Buren County HSEMD Planning Committee FEMA publications Van Buren County Emergency Management Coordinator Van Buren County agricultural organizations HSEMD Planning Committee FEMA publications Van Buren County EMA HSEMD Planning Committee FEMA publications Van Buren County EMA HSEMD Planning Committee FEMA publications Van Buren County Emergency Management Coordinator Van Buren County Law Enforcement agencies HSEMD Van Buren County Emergency Management Coordinator Planning Committee Van Buren County Emergency Responders Planning Committee HLSEM CDC Van Buren County Department of Public Health Van Buren County has large diameter pipelines passing through the county Awareness following 9/11 Law Enforcement officials concern Agri-producer concern Van Buren County emergency responders and local agri-producer efforts related to terrorism Presence within communities Awareness following 9/11 Potential for terrorism event involving the water storage systems of Van Buren County Awareness following 9/11 Potential for terrorism event involving the water storage systems of Van Buren County Awareness following 9/11 Van Buren County law enforcement agencies, school districts and emergency responders efforts related to terrorism Conventional terrorism events in Van Buren County School Districts Presence of facilities storing hazardous materials Potential for human disease epidemic outbreak Health and welfare of Van Buren County residents 69

These hazards will be defined and discussed at length in the Hazard Profiles section In conducting their hazard analysis and risk assessment, the Planning Committee considered the following Hazard Analysis Scoring Criteria Historical Occurrence (Hazard Profile) Probability (Hazard Profile) Vulnerability (Assess Vulnerability) Maximum Threat (Hazard Profile) Severity of Impact (Assess Vulnerability) Speed of Onset (Hazard Profile)! %! %&! '(! "! ) ) * +, -+ + -+ + $ + # #! "!! " "! $ 70

!! #!! # "! " # # # / " 0 - % " " 1 % % " ( 2 1 " 1 %(& " ( " ", # 3 " ( 1! " % % 4 " Hazard Analysis scores determined by the Van Buren County Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee using the above guidelines are found with each hazard discussed in the Hazard Profiles 71

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ENHANCED TORNADO &01#2'2/$ Category EF0: Gale tornado (65-85 mph); light damage Some damage to chimneys; break branches off trees; push over shallow-rooted trees; damage to sign boards 389 percent of all tornadoes Category EF1: Moderate tornado (86-110 mph); moderate damage The lower limit is the beginning of hurricane wind speed; peel surface off roofs; mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned; moving autos pushed off the roads 356 percent of all tornadoes Category EF2: Significant tornado (111-135 mph); considerable damage roofs torn off frame houses; mobile homes demolished; boxcars pushed over; large trees snapped or uprooted; light-object missiles generated 194 percent of all tornadoes Category EF3: Severe tornado (136-165 mph); Severe damage Roofs and some walls torn off wellconstructed houses; trains overturned; most trees in forest uprooted; heavy cars lifted off ground and thrown 49 percent of all tornadoes Category EF4: Devastating tornado (166-200 mph); Devastating damage Well-constructed houses leveled; structure with weak foundation blown off some distance; cars thrown and large missiles generated 11 percent of all tornadoes Category EF5: Incredible tornado (greater than 200 mph); Incredible damage Strong frame houses lifted off foundations and carried considerable distance to disintegrate; automobile sized missiles fly through the air in excess of 100 yards; trees debarked; incredible phenomena will occur Less than 1 percent of all tornadoes 88

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HAZARDS NOT CONSIDERED IN THIS PLAN AND THE RATIONALE FOR NOT INCLUDING THEM FOLLOWS Grass or Wildland Fire: The Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee indicated that resources needed to adequately address grass or wildland fires were available Levee Failure: Local officials indicate the levy has no affect on local water movement or flash flooding Sink Holes: The Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee was only aware of one sinkhole episode in the Village of Douds and determined that there are no mitigation measures that can prevent a sink hole from occurring and any sink hole that would occur in the county would have only minor consequences Expansive Soils: Expansive soils hazard and risk information provided by Iowa HLSEM, the Multi-Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment document, USGS, and the Van Buren County Emergency Management Coordinator indicated the level of risk associated with expansive soils was slight with little swelling clay potential in Van Buren County Earthquake: There has been no history of an earthquake that caused any damage to any location in Van Buren County It is improbable that one may occur as shown in the following earthquake probability chart EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY CHART FOR THE UNITED STATES Transportation Hazardous Materials Incident: It could not be determined what amounts or types of hazardous materials were being transported through Van Buren County and the Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee did not feel there was a strong enough history of past incidents to warrant inclusion Cyber Terrorism: The Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee did not feel the county had enough financial institutions or large internet dependent businesses to include this hazard Air Transportation Incident: There are no commercial airports within the close vicinity of Van Buren County and it is not on the direct flyover route for other air paths Rail Transportation Incident: There are no longer any railroads in Van Buren County Fixed Radiological Incident: There is no facility within Van Buren County that has an amount of radiological materials that would pose a significant threat Radiological Transportation Incident: It could not be determined if any amounts of radiological material was being transported through Van Buren County Waterway/Waterbody Incident: The only exposure to a waterway or waterbody incident in Van Buren County is recreational users on the Des Moines River as well as lakes and ponds in the county History has proven that the county has the necessary resources to deal with incidents of this nature Enemy Attack: There has been no history of enemy attack on Van Buren County and the county does not have any facilities or locations that would be likely candidates for an enemy attack 118

Public Disorder: The Van Buren County Sheriff s Office has the resources and can quickly gain additional resources through mutual aid to suppress any public disorder event Radiological Terrorism: After considering all relevant factors, the Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee did not feel Van Buren County is at significant risk of a radiological terrorist attack Human Disease Incident: After considering all relevant factors, the Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee determined it could do nothing more than is already being done by local, county, state and federal officials and agencies to prevent or prepare for a human disease incident Animal/Plant/Crop Disease: After considering all relevant factors, the Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee determined it could do nothing more than is already being done by local, county, state and federal officials and agencies to prevent or prepare for an animal/plant/crop disease incident 119

HAZARD ANALYSIS SUMMARY The Van Buren County Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee reviewed and scored all of the hazards considered to be relevant for their community The following is a summary of the list of hazards that were identified and scored for Van Buren County The table is organized in descending order, with the hazard that accumulated the highest total score listed first Hazard Historical Probability Vulnerability Maximum Threat Severity Of Impact Speed of Onset Energy Failure 1 3 2 2 2 1 11 Highway Transportation Incident 4 4 2 1 2 4 17 River Flooding 4 3 2 1 2 1 13 Structural Fire 4 4 2 1 1 4 16 Flash Flood 4 4 2 1 2 4 17 Thunderstorm & Lightning 4 4 2 2 1 3 16 Tornado 3 3 2 2 3 4 17 Windstorm 4 4 2 2 2 4 18 Severe Winter Storm 4 3 3 3 3 1 17 Communications Failure 1 2 2 2 1 4 12 Hail Storm 4 4 4 2 2 4 20 Fixed Facility Hazardous Materials Incident 4 2 2 1 2 4 15 Structural Failure 1 2 2 1 2 4 12 Extreme Heat 2 2 1 2 1 1 9 Human Disease Pandemic 1 2 2 2 2 1 10 Conventional Terrorism 1 2 2 2 3 3 13 Agroterrorism 1 2 2 2 2 1 10 Bioterrorism 1 2 1 1 2 1 8 Pipeline Incident 1 2 2 2 2 4 13 Chemical Terrorism 1 2 2 2 2 4 13 Dam Failure 2 2 2 2 2 4 14 Drought 4 2 2 2 2 1 13 Landslide 2 2 1 1 1 2 9 Total Average total score: 14 120

COMPOSITE SCORING WORKSHEET FOR HAZARDS IDENTIFIED THE VAN BUREN COUNTY HAZARD MITIGATION PLANNING COMMITTEE Each hazard identified by the Van Buren County Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee can also either be triggered by some other hazard or cause another hazard to occur Thus they become part of an event cascade In developing a composite score for ranking the hazards identified by the Van Buren County Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee a composite score was developed that included the Hazard Analysis score and Cascading event scores consisting of the number of hazards a hazard can resulting from and the number of hazards a hazard can trigger The cascading event scores were determined from a matrix found in Appendix 5A of the Iowa Hazard Analysis Hazard Worksheet Score 1 + Number Caused 2 + Number Resulting From 2 = Composite Score Hazard Hazard Worksheet Score 1 Number Caused 2 Number Resulting From 2 Natural Hazards Extreme Heat 9 6 0 15 Flash Flood 17 16 4 37 River Flooding 13 15 4 32 Dam Failure 14 11 9 34 Hailstorms 20 5 1 26 Severe Winter Storm 17 10 0 27 Thunderstorm and Lightning 16 19 0 35 Tornado 17 14 1 32 Windstorm 18 12 2 32 Drought 13 5 1 19 Landslide 9 8 2 19 Human-Caused/Combination Hazards Energy Failure 11 6 20 37 Highway Transportation Incident 17 6 22 45 Structural Fire 16 6 17 39 Communications Failure 12 9 16 37 Structural Failure 12 10 20 42 Pipeline Incident 13 4 7 24 Agroterrorism 10 2 8 20 Bioterrorism 8 3 0 11 Chemical Terrorism 13 3 0 16 Conventional Terrorism 13 17 0 30 Fixed Facility Hazardous Materials Incident 15 2 14 31 Dam Failure 14 11 9 34 Human Disease Pandemic 10 2 10 22 Composite Score 121

RANKING OF HAZARDS Following the composite score determination, the ranking of hazards that could influence the Van Buren County is as follows HAZARD RANKING Highway Transportation Incident 1 Structural Failure 2 Structural Fire 3 Energy Failure 4 Communications Failure 5 Flash Flood 6 Thunderstorms & Lightning 7 Dam Failure 8 River Flood 9 Windstorm 10 Tornado 11 Fixed Facility Hazardous Materials Incident 12 Conventional Terrorism 13 Severe Winter Storm 14 Hail Storm 15 Pipeline Transportation Incident 16 Human Disease Pandemic 17 Ag- Terrorism 18 Landslide 19 Drought 20 Chemical Terrorism 21 Extreme Heat 22 Bio-Terrorism 23 122

HAZARD PRIORITIZATION Once the Van Buren County Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee had identified and scored the hazards, they examined each hazard in relation to the risk that hazard presented to the community All of the identified hazards were then given a priority state The Committee defined high-risk hazards to be those hazards that caused substantial damage to the community in the past and/or have a high probability of occurring in the future, and/or have the potential to affect a large proportion of the community High-risk hazards were also considered to be the hazards for which immediate planning and mitigation activities are to be focused The Committee considered medium-risk hazards to be those hazards that should be addressed by the community in the future; however, the need for mitigation activities for these hazards was not considered to be as immediate Finally, the Committee defined low risk hazards as hazards that, at present time, have an acceptable level of risk The hazards are listed below by priority $5L5<A,<6:<67O // $ $ $ </ $ 1? 1 $ 7P $ 7 $? 1 $ A/ $ 9/ $ $76 $ 1/ $ $ 9+$ " #/ " 1/ " A /+/$" 6,6 57-7 #7 #7 $A, 123