Mathematical Ideas Modelling data, power variation, straightening data with logarithms, residual plots

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Kepler s Law Level Upper secondary Mathematical Ideas Modelling data, power variation, straightening data with logarithms, residual plots Description and Rationale Many traditional mathematics prolems have een given a new life with the advent of the graphics calculator. The time spent in completing repetitive calculating tasks can e greatly reduced with the use of a graphics calculator, allowing for a greater focus on the important mathematics involved in the task. This activity allows students to analyse historical data to determine a famous mathematical relationship. The activity may e used at a variety of levels and allows for a variety of approaches. A data set relating periods and orital radii for a numer of planets in our solar system is provided, along with the general accepted form of the model. The model is determined and compared to its accepted form, along with a view of a residual plot to confirm the acceptaility of the model. Johann Kepler is a very famous man in the history of astronomy and mathematics. He used data from oservations of planetary orits to show that these motions were not random, that they in fact oeyed certain mathematical laws, and that these laws could e written in algeraic form. The data elow uses the earth as the ase unit, so times and distances are given as multiples of 1 earth year, and the average radius of our Earth s orit around the sun. Some of his oservational data are given elow: Planet Orital period Orital radius T R Mercury 0.241 0.387 Venus 0.615 0.723 Earth 1.000 1.000 Mars 1.881 1.542 Jupiter 11.862 5.202 Saturn 29.457 9.539 Kepler showed that a power model could e used to descrie this data. i.e. T ar = where a and are constants. The task is to find appropriate values for a and, and to justify the procedure you use. A follow up task involves reorganising the solution into the traditional expression of the law. Page 66

Enhancing learning with a graphics calculator m This law is usually stated in the form T = kr, where m and n are whole numers. Determine the simplest values of m and n and complete Kepler s law. The of a planet s orital period (T in years) is directly proportional to the of the average distance (R in metres) from the sun n For an easy scatter plot the AUTO window needs to e defined. This is done in the SET UP mode (SHIFT then MENU). The data needs to e entered in the STAT mode and plotted. The formulation of an appropriate model may e completed in a numer of ways. Students may e asked to develop the model y appropriately selecting and adjusting values for the two constants a and until a satisfactory model is produced. The first step is to place the scatter plot in the ackground of the graphing screen. A picture is taken with the scatter plot on the screen via the OPTN then PIC menus. This is placed in the ackground y going into the SET UP (SHIFT then MENU) and making the saved picture the ackground A starting model needs to e created as shown. The curved nature of the scatter plot suggesting a starting model as shown. The scatter plot produced suggests that the power of 2 is too large, a value less than 2 (1.5) needs to e tested. Page 67

The new model and resulting scatter plot are shown elow. This would appear to e suitale model of the data provided. The value of a can e analysed y returning to the lists and completing the operation of the rule on the values in List 1 and then comparing List 2 (actual data) and List 3 (predicted values). To operate on a list of numers the list name is highlighted. The availale list commands are found via the OPTN utton then LIST menu. The resulting tale of actual and predicted data can then e compared. A method of determining the quality of the model is to do a Residual plot. This involves looking for a pattern with the differences etween the actual data and the results predicted y the model. A plot where the residuals appear to e randomly distriuted supports the proposed model. The residuals may e calculated y defining the operation as shown. The set up of the scatter plot and the resulting plot are shown elow. The variations from the proposed model are small in size although not completely randomly distriuted. Page 68

Enhancing learning with a graphics calculator A second approach to this task would involve attempting to straighten the data using logarithms. Natural logarithms or logarithms to the ase 10 may e used. If the proposed model is T = a R log T = log (a R ) log T = log a + log R log T = log a + log R log T = log R + log a then : This is in the general form of a straight line (y = mx + c) and so if the model is appropriate the data aove may e modelled y a straight line if plotted as log T vs log R. The gradient of this plot gives the value for, while the y-intercept provides the value of log a. The commands to find the logarithms of List 1 are shown. The commands are accessed via the OPTN utton and LIST menu. The scatter plot of log T vs log R is shown. A model may e fitted as efore or y using the regression potential of the calculator. This model must now e reconstructed into the required form. log T = 1.5 log R + 0 log a = 0, a = 1, n = 1.5 T = 1. R 1.5 The third method uses the regression model potential of the calculator, while this is the least mathematically rich option for the student there are times when this method would e used. The added onus is that the residual analysis can easily e completed. In the STAT mode the residuals can e stored in a list. In the SET UP mode (SHIFT then MENU) the residuals have een placed into list 3. Page 69

The scatter plot can e produced, the power model (Pwr) generated and the model placed over the data. The calculator has placed the residuals placed into List 3. A scatter plot of the residuals (List 3) vs the orital radii (List 1) can easily e produced for investigation. A model of the form T = R 1.5 has een generated y each of the methods employed. The second part of the task involved determining the general form of Kepler s law. If the power is 1.5 then if oth sides are squared the model ecomes T 2 = R 3. The general statement of Kepler s law ecomes: The square of a planet s orital period (T in years) is directly proportional to the cue of the average distance (R in metres) from the sun This is in fact a result that can e determined from Newton s Law of Gravitation. Newton s Law states that the force etween two ojects is directly proportional to the product of the two masses (m 1 and m 2 ) and inversely proportional to the square of their separation (R). F = Gm m 1 2 = ma where G is the Universal Gravitation constant, 6.67 x 10-11 Nm 2 kg -2 2 R For oriting odies this acceleration a is v 2 R, v = 2 R T therefore a = 4 2 π π R 2 T Suing this into the aove equation results in R T central ody (the sun). 3 = GM, where M is the mass of the 4π 2 2 The right hand side of the aove expression is the constant of proportionality, dependent only on the mass of the central ody of the system. Page 70