Eric Snodgrass Co-Founder and Senior Atmospheric Scientist of Agrible, Inc Director of Undergraduate Studies Department of Atmospheric Sciences University Of Illinois Urbana-Champaign snodgrss@illinois.edu eric@agrible.com
1-Apr 8-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr 6-May 13-May 20-May 27-May 3-Jun 10-Jun 17-Jun 24-Jun 1-Jul 8-Jul 15-Jul 22-Jul 29-Jul 5-Aug 12-Aug 19-Aug 26-Aug 2-Sep 9-Sep 16-Sep 23-Sep 30-Sep Inches of Precipitation 25 Accumulation of Precipitation (April 1 Sept 30) Top Yielding Years: 1998, 2004, 2009, 2015 20 15 10 5 0 Normal Accumulated Precipitation 2004 Accumulated Precipitation 2009 Accumulated Precipitation 2015 Accumulated Precipitation 1998 Accumulated Precipitation
Inches of Precipitation 25 Accumulation of Precipitation (April 1 Sept 30) Low Yielding Years: 2002, 2006, 2012 20 15 10 5 0 Normal Accumulated Precipitation 2012 Accumulated Precipitation 2006 Accumulated Precipitation 2002 Accumulated Precipitation
When it comes to yields start watching the jet stream
So what types of weather patterns shut off the rain and bring in the heat? Flow of the Jet Stream Trough L H L Ridge Block storm systems Move heat north
H July 3, 2012
Markets move most when weather impacts this region in July and August.
Fear that June s heat and central US dryness would continue into July. Storms tend to ride around the ridge.
Forecast made during the the 3 rd week of June suggested a major breakdown in the ridge for the first week of July! Trough of cold air Trough of cold air 200% of avg First two weeks of July
Total Accumulation from August 2016 http://water.weather.gov/precip/
Were we able to forecast this hot and wet summer?
From June 2, 2016 Governor's Ag Summit
Weather Prediction Most commonly used weather forecast models *I have left out the European Model (ECMWF) because it costs $$ to access these graphics and data. High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model (HRRR) 0-18 hour forecast (1 hour time steps) Very high resolution, US only Updated every hour Great for timing when precipitation will arrive and same day severe weather prediction North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) 0-84 hour forecasts (3.5 days) 0-36 hrs (1-hour time steps) 36-84 hrs (3-hour time steps) Updated every 6 hours High resolution, North America Only Great for short term weather forecasting for timing and amount of rain snow, temperature fluctuations Global Forecast System Model (GFS) 0-384 hour forecasts (16 days) 0-120 hrs (3-hour time steps) 120-240 hrs (6 hour time steps) 240-384 hrs (12 hour time steps) Updated Every 6 hours, Global Great for looking 2-weeks out for big picture weather events
Weather Forecasting: Tools of the Trade https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/ag_wx.html
Weather Forecasting Using Numerical Weather Prediction Indicates which weather model is currently being displayed. In this case, the Global Forecasting Systems (GFS) Model. Weather forecast display area. Click here to change the geographic location displayed Other Model Options: NAM (1-84 hours) higher resolution, but only for the US CFS (out to 1 month) Time the model was initialized. 12Z is 4AM local time PST. The GFS model produces a forecast for every 6 hours out to 384 hours (16 days). Each button is for a different forecast hour. Click here see all precipitation products (i.e., total accumulated rain, total snowfall, MSLP and precip type etc.) Click here see all surface wind speed and direction, winds near 1 mile AGL, MSLP anomalies. Click here see all upper level winds (i.e., jet stream maps), mid-level vorticity and height anomalies. Click here surface and near surface temperatures and temperature anomalies
World Record Hail Vivian, SD 2010 Look for Radar Reflectivity Values greater than 60 dbz
Severe Weather Threat Straight Line Winds
Local Stresses - Wind Watch out for the bow echo!!
Shelf Cloud Precedes the Bow Echo Outflow Inflow
Severe Weather Threat Tornadoes
Hook Echo Hook echoes are typically found on the SW side of large supercellsc
Weather Radar Best Sources Best: Radar Scope (app $9) https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/conus/index_loop.php
Forecasting flood! http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/ag_wx.html
smoke https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/
H
Change is coming http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif This is also on my Ag_Wx links page.
What are the other big players this winter?
What is El Niño and La Niña? Normal La Niña http://www.bom.gov. au/climate/enso/hist ory/ln-2010-12/three-phases-of- ENSO.shtml El Niño
Typical Weather Pattern for La Niña (NOAA)
But is this La Niña Strong?
Nov 15, 2010 Summer 2012 US Drought South American Drought (Strong La Niña) Biofuel Mandate
La Niña typically causes drought and heat stress for southern growing regions
Early August 2016 Water Storage (% saturated) http://sisdagro.inmet.gov.br:8080/sisdagro/app/monitoramento/bhs/mapa http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monsoons/figures/curr.w.season.figb.gif
Nov 25, 2016 Water Storage (% saturated) http://sisdagro.inmet.gov.br:8080/sisdagro/app/monitoramento/bhs/mapa http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monsoons/figures/curr.w.season.figb.gif
Source: Observations NOAA, Forecast Agrible, Inc. Weak La Niña Projection for Brazil Soybean Yields ~45-46 bpa 102+ Million Metric Tons
What are others saying about the US Winter Forecast?
Source NOAA https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/dynamic_fcst_links.html
December February Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/
NOAA Official Winter Outlook: Temperature
NOAA Official Winter Outlook: Precipitation
Agrible s Nov Jan Forecast: 1. Near average temps with the potential for a cool bias (low probability of winter being well above average like last year) 2. Near average precipitation, potentially wetter than average. 3. Expect and active freeze/thaw cycle. What to watch: 1. High Latitude Blocking Over Canada (high air pressure) 2. Position of the Polar Vortex!! Temperature Precipitation
Agrible s Feb - April Forecast: 1. Lower probability of cornbelt drought development 2. Potentially early Spring? What to watch: 1. More active severe weather. Published literature shows how La Niña or ENSO neutral conditions favor more early season severe weather and near average severe weather in central US Temperature 2. Another good year for yields? Precipitation
Strong Polar Vortex Cold Pocket of Air in Stratosphere Polar Vortex Cold Air Stays Concentrated Near the North Pole Polar Jet Stream
Weak Polar Vortex Warm Pocket of Air in Stratosphere Cold Air Spills South Introducing Arctic Air into the Mid-Latitudes Polar Vortex Polar Jet Stream Deep Trough in the Jet Stream
1905 1907 1909 1911 1913 1915 1917 1919 1921 1923 1925 1927 1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939 1941 1943 1945 1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 # of Days Length of the Frost Free Season (Huron, SD) 200 180 160 140 120 120 Days 130 Days 100 Frost Free Season length 80 Poly. (Frost Free Season length) Mean Frost Free Season: May 8 Sept 29 Year (1905 2015)
Source: IPCC
Change in the # of Consecutive Dry Days http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/agriculture
Change in the # of Hot Nights T > 70F http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/agriculture