Accumulated Rainfall (inches) Accumulated GDDs Temperature ( F)/Wind Speed (mph) Precipitation (inches) CropCast Corn and Soybean Report Kenny Miller Friday, March 17, 2017 Peoria, IL Regional Forecast Discussion Scattered showers will move through the area during the morning hours today, but conditions should be dry this afternoon through Sunday afternoon. There is a chance of showers late Sunday night and early Monday morning, but dry weather will continue through early next week. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s this afternoon before only reaching the upper 40s tomorrow. Warmer temperatures will return on Sunday and Monday as highs peak in the upper 50s and mid 60s, respectively. Lows will be in the upper 30s tonight but should fall to the low 30s Saturday and Sunday evenings. Day Date 10 Day Forecast for Peoria, Illinois M ax Temp M in Temp Daily Avg Precipitation ( F) ( F) Humidity (inches) Friday 17-Mar-2017 57 39 90% 0.19 Saturday 18-Mar-2017 47 33 84% 0.00 Sunday 19-Mar-2017 57 31 79% 0.00 Monday 20-Mar-2017 64 44 92% 0.21 Tuesday 21-Mar-2017 51 36 67% 0.00 Wednesday 22-Mar-2017 50 29 59% 0.05 Thursday 23-Mar-2017 54 32 84% 0.31 Friday 24-Mar-2017 63 47 92% 0.30 Saturday 25-Mar-2017 58 41 88% 0.14 Sunday 26-Mar-2017 58 36 83% 0.06 100 90 80 70 7 Day Hourly Forecast for Peoria, Illinois 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 Today's Wind Direction/Speed Local Direction Speed Time From (mph) 6:00 AM S 10 7:00 AM S 10 8:00 AM S 10 9:00 AM S 10 10:00 AM S 9 60 50 0.6 0.5 11:00 AM SSW 9 12:00 PM SW 9 1:00 PM WSW 9 40 30 0.4 0.3 2:00 PM W 10 3:00 PM W 11 4:00 PM WNW 12 20 10 0.2 0.1 5:00 PM WNW 11 6:00 PM WNW 9 7:00 PM WNW 8 0 17-Mar 18-Mar 19-Mar 20-Mar 21-Mar 22-Mar Precipitation Temperature Wind Speed 23-Mar 0 8:00 PM WNW 7 9:00 PM WNW 7 10:00 PM WNW 8 11:00 PM WNW 9 Accumulated Precipitation since March 1 for Peoria, IL Accumulated Growing Degree Days (Base 50 F) since March 1 for Peoria, IL 3.5 140 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 120 100 80 60 40 20 0.0 3/1 3/3 3/5 3/7 3/9 3/113/133/153/173/193/213/233/253/273/293/31 0 3/1 3/3 3/5 3/7 3/9 3/113/133/153/173/193/213/233/253/273/293/31 2017 Actuals MDA 15 Day Forecast 2017 Actuals MDA 15 Day Forecast 30 Year Normal 2016 Actuals 30 Year Normal 2016 Actuals Page 1
Total Precipitation Yesterday Total Precipitation Past 7 Days MDA Precipitation Forecast Friday, March 17, 2017 Saturday, March 18, 2017 Sunday, March 19, 2017 Monday, March 20, 2017 Tuesday, March 21, 2017 Total Precipitation Next 5 Days 1-5 Day Precip Compared to Average 6-10 Day Precip Compared to Average 11-15 Day Precip Compared to Average Page 2
Maximum Temperature Yesterday Temp Compared to Average- Past 7 Days MDA Maximum Temperature Forecast Friday, March 17, 2017 Saturday, March 18, 2017 Sunday, March 19, 2017 Monday, March 20, 2017 Tuesday, March 21, 2017 Average Maximum Temp Next 5 Days 1-5 Day Temp Compared to Average 6-10 Day Temp Compared to Average 11-15 Day Temp Compared to Average Page 3
Minimum Temperature Yesterday Temp Compared to Average- Past 7 Days MDA Minimum Temperature Forecast Friday, March 17, 2017 Saturday, March 18, 2017 Sunday, March 19, 2017 Monday, March 20, 2017 Tuesday, March 21, 2017 Average Minimum Temp Next 5 Days 1-5 Day Temp Compared to Average 6-10 Day Temp Compared to Average 11-15 Day Temp Compared to Average Page 4
6-10 Day Forecast: Wed Sat Sun Mon Tue Mar 18 19 14 21 15 22 20 - - Wed Thu Sat Sun Fri Mar 18 25 24 23 22 19 26 Wetter Slightly Drier northern eastern Drier Midwest, drier cooler eastern southern Midwest, Plains, southeast central northeast Midwest western Plains northern Midwest Plains Midwest Delta MDA 6-10 Day Temperature Forecast MDA 6-10 Day Precipitation Forecast Previous Forecast Previous Forecast Model Preference: ECM Ensemble CHANGES: The precipitation outlook is slightly drier in the southeastern Midwest. Temperatures are slightly warmer in the central Midwest and northeastern Plains. CROP IMPACT: Showers in the north central Plains and Midwest would continue to improve moisture for wheat. However, moisture will continue to decline across the southwestern Plains and southern Delta. Mild temperatures across the Plains and southwestern Midwest will keep winterkill threats low. The warm and dry conditions in the Delta and Southeast would favor fieldwork ahead of planting RISKS: There is a wetter risk in the Delta. CONFIDENCE: Confidence in the temperature outlook is near normal. Confidence in the precipitation outlook is near normal. MODEL PREFERENCE: ECM Ensemble 11-15 Day Forecast: Thu Sat Sun Mon Fri Mar 25 24 23 19 26 20 27 - - Wed Tue Mon - Thu Fri Mar 28 24 31 23 30 29 27 Slightly Wet Warmer Wetter Slightly Plains, Warmer Wetter drier southern Midwest, drier Plains Delta Plains Delta Plains MDA 11-15 Day Temperature Forecast MDA 11-15 Day Precipitation Forecast Previous Forecast Previous Forecast Model Preference: ECM Ensemble CHANGES: The precipitation outlook is unchanged. Temperatures are warmer in the Midwest and Delta, and cooler in the northwestern Plains. CROP IMPACT: Showers in the Midwest, Delta, and east central and southeastern Plains would improve moisture for wheat. Warm conditions in the southeastern Plains, Midwest, and Delta will further increase soil temperatures. RISKS: There is a drier risk in the western Plains. CONFIDENCE: Confidence in the temperature outlook is near normal. Confidence in the precipitation outlook is near normal. MODEL PREFERENCE: ECM ensemble Page 5
3/1 3/3 3/5 3/7 3/9 3/11 3/13 3/15 3/17 3/19 3/21 3/23 3/25 3/27 3/29 3/31 Accumulated Precip (in.) CropCast Corn and Soybean Report Kenny Miller Friday, March 17, 2017 Past 45 Days Precipitation Percent of 30 Year Average Past 45 Days Temp Departure Compared to 30 Year Average The chart below shows how accumulated precipitation since April 1 compares to benchmark weather years in the Peoria area. Benchmark unfavorable weather year: 2012 (IL corn yield 37% below trend, IL soybean yield 12% below trend) Benchmark favorable weather year: 2014 (IL corn yield 18% above trend, IL soybean yield 12% above trend) The maps below track crop progress across the U.S. for the corn and soybean crops based on weekly data from the USDA crop progress report. These maps are updated each Tuesday, showing data from the previous Sunday. The colors on the map indicate county-level production levels for each crop. 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Accumulated Precipitation for Peoria, IL Compared to Benchmark Weather Years Corn harvesting is now 97% complete nationally, slightly ahead of the 5 year average of 96%, and matching the harvest pace from last year at this time. The only major corn producing state with less than 90% of the harvest complete is Michigan, where 83% of the corn crop had been harvested as of Sunday. There is also still at least 5% of the corn harvest left to complete across North Dakota, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. None of these areas are running significantly behind the 5 year average, however. Snow in the far northern Midwest over the next couple of days may slow remaining corn harvesting, but drier weather later this week should allow the harvest to near completion in most areas. Soybean harvesting has finished up in most areas. 2017 Actuals MDA 15 Day Forecast 30 Year Normal 2014: Benchmark Favorable Year 2012: Benchmark Unfavorable Year Page 6
Global Ag Highlights Vegetative Health Index (VHI) is derived by satellite and is used to help determine whether crops are under stress and can also be used to estimate crop yields. The maps below show the Vegetative Health Index for major growing areas around the world relative to a 30 year average. Values less than zero represent below normal VHI, while values above zero represent above normal VHI. This imagery is updated on a weekly basis. Most recent update: Mar 4, 2017-20 -15-10 -5 +5 +10 +15 +20 Below Normal Above Normal Desert Snow/Ice or Missing Data Regional Crop Weather Discussions Midwest PAST 24 HOURS: Dry weather prevailed yesterday. 5 DAY FORECAST: Showers should return to central and eastern areas today, ending in eastern areas on Saturday. The showers will likely mix with snow in northern Indiana, northern Ohio, and Michigan. Showers should return to central and eastern areas on Monday, then favor southern areas on Tuesday. CROP IMPACT: Additional showers in central and southeastern areas should further improve moisture for wheat. Temperatures should moderate this weekend and next week. Regional Vegetative Health Imagery Brazil PAST 24 HOURS: A few showers favored northwestern Mato Grosso, southwestern Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana, Santa Catarina, and northern Rio Grande do Sul yesterday. 5 DAY FORECAST: Rains should favor Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias, southern Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo, and Parana through Tuesday. 6-10 DAY: The 6-10 day outlook is wetter in southern Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo. CROP IMPACT: Showers in central and northwestern areas through early next week will slow soybean harvesting and safrinha corn planting, but will improve moisture for safrinha corn growth. More limited showers in southern areas should allow wetness concerns to ease. Argentina PAST 24 HOURS: Dry weather prevailed yesterday. 5 DAY FORECAST: Dry weather should prevail through Monday. A few light showers will be possible in northern Santa Fe on Tuesday. 6-10 DAY: The 6-10 day outlook is unchanged. CROP IMPACT: Drier weather in most areas through early next week should allow any wetness in east central areas to ease. Limited showers later next week should prevent dryness from redeveloping. Corn and soybean growth will be finishing up, and maturation should progress well. South Africa: Black Sea: Other Major Crop Areas Forecast is unchanged; drier trends will allow moisture to decline in favor of corn drydown. Forecast is unchanged; Winterkill threats will remain low as increasing showers begin to improve moisture. Page 7
North America Long Range Forecast Percent of Average Precipitation over the Past 30 Days Similar El Niño/La Niña Years: The forecasts on this page are updated monthly. 1. 1957 2. 1990 3. 1963 4. 1961 5. 1972 Last Update: Mar 9, 2017 April Temperature Forecast May Temperature Forecast June Temperature Forecast April Precipitation Forecast May Precipitation Forecast June Precipitation Forecast APRIL CROP PHASES Corn Planting Early Soybean Planting Winter Wheat Jointing/Heading MAY CROP PHASES Corn Planting/Germination Soybean Planting/Germination Winter Wheat Heading JUNE CROP PHASES Corn Vegetative Growth Soybean Vegetative Growth Winter Wheat Harvesting Long Range Potential Crop Impacts Warm and drier conditions in the Delta and Southeast in April will favor corn and soybean planting, but will lower moisture for germination Wetter conditions in the Plains in May will favor heading winter wheat and spring wheat germination Dryness will likely persist across the Delta through June, stressing corn and soybean growth An upturn in showers in the Prairies by June will improve moisture for spring wheat Page 8