Future Opportunities for Collaborations: Exoplanet Astronomers & Statisticians Eric B. Ford Penn State Astronomy & Astrophysics Center for Astrostatistics Center for Exoplanets & Habitable Worlds Institute for CyberScience
Kepler: A Mission Designed to Do Statistics
A 2nd Mission designed for Statistics WFIRST (launch mid-2020 s) Search for microlensing events due to planets (and some cosmology) NASA/Goddard
Future Exoplanet Transit Missions NASA K2 (now) Same Spacecraft, New Mission ESA CHEOPS (launch 2017) Characterize known planets
Future Exoplanet Transit Missions NASA/MIT TESS (launch 2017) Small Planets around Bright Stars ESA/Thales Alenia Space PLATO (launch 2024) Earth-size planets in the Habitable Zone of Bright Stars
James Webb Space Telescope
Period-Radius Distribution of Kepler s Planets (including strong planet candidates) Kepler/Burke+ 2015/Jontof-Hutter
Extending Transit Planet Searches to Long Orbital Periods D. Foreman-Mackey
Planet Occurrence Rate at Long Periods DFM et al. in prep
Starlight From Telescope Separate Light by Wavelength Echelle Spectrometer CCD Echelle Grating Collimator
Measuring Masses of Exoplanets
Period-Radius Distribution of Kepler s Planets (including strong planet candidates) Kepler/Burke+ 2015/Jontof-Hutter
Planet Masses Measured with Doppler Follow-up Observations Kepler/Burke+ 2015/Jontof-Hutter
Upcoming Challenges for K2, TESS, CHEOPS & PLATO Light curve analysis (greater importance of instrumental effects than Kepler) Discriminating astrophysical false positives (larger pixels than Kepler) D. Foreman-Mackey
Planet Hunting Spectrographs Now: HIRES, HARPS, HARPS-N, APF Soon (NIR): CARMENES, SPIRou, HET/HPF ilocator Soon (Optical): HET/HRS, MINERVA, ESPRESSO, EXPRES, NEID, SHREK Credit: M. Wong Credit: Frank Cianciolo/McDonald Observatory
Upcoming Challenges for K2, TESS, CHEOPS & PLATO Confirmation, masses and orbits from Radial Velocity follow-up observations Stellar activity: Machine learning to extract additional information from spectra Multiple planets per star: Necessity of algorithms for ~dozens-dimensional models Biases created by follow-up observing programs: Algorithmic adaptive scheduling, ABC,
Radial Velocity Planet Amplitude vs Publication Date
Raw Data for Star s Spectrum Measure Shift of Absorption Lines to Determine the Radial Velocity of Star. Sharp/NOAO/NSO@Kit Peak/AURA/NSF
Kepler s Multiplanet Systems
Spacing of Kepler s Multi-Planet Systems Raw, unweighted, smoothed Filtered (i.e., both planet s transit Signal-to-Noise >16 & Impact Parameter < 0.8), unweighted & smoothed Filtered, Weighted by inverse geometric probability of both planets transiting, & smoothed Brakensiek & Ragozzine 2016
Most Known Planets are already in Multiple Transiting Planet Systems R. Morehead Ph.D. 2016/Morehead et al. in prep.
Planet Masses Measured with Transit Timing Variations Kepler/Burke+ 2015/Jontof-Hutter
M-R Observations for Low-Mass Planets Orange = Mass measured from TTVs Green = Mass measured from RVs Figures: Daniel Jontof-Hutter
Preliminary Results Comparing Mass- Radius Distributions from RVs & TTVs Figures: Angie Wolfgang
Hierarchical Model to Eliminate Bias by Including All Near-Resonant Pairs Figure: M. Shabram (Ph.D. 2015)
SAMSI Program on Statistical, Mathematical and Computational Methods for Astronomy Opening workshop Aug 22-26, 2016 Proposed working groups: Uncertainty Quantification and Reduced Order Modeling in Gravitation, Astrophysics, and Cosmology Synoptic Time Domain Surveys Time Series Analysis for Exoplanets & Gravitational Waves: Beyond Stationary Gaussian Processes Population Modeling & Signal Separation for Exoplanets & Gravitational Waves Statistics, computation, and modeling in cosmology