Statistical Analysis of the Whole Body Specific Absorption Rate using Human Body Characteristics

Similar documents
Sequential Design of Computer Experiments for the Estimation of a Quantile with Application to Numerical Dosimetry

ELECTROMAGNETIC RADIATION HAZARDS

Sequential Importance Sampling for Rare Event Estimation with Computer Experiments

Bayesian Regression Linear and Logistic Regression

Statistics: Learning models from data

SYDE 372 Introduction to Pattern Recognition. Probability Measures for Classification: Part I

Polynomial chaos expansions for structural reliability analysis

Copula Regression RAHUL A. PARSA DRAKE UNIVERSITY & STUART A. KLUGMAN SOCIETY OF ACTUARIES CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY MAY 18,2011

Curve Fitting Re-visited, Bishop1.2.5

Review for the previous lecture

EXAMINATIONS OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY

STAT 6350 Analysis of Lifetime Data. Probability Plotting

Other Noninformative Priors

EMF Energy Absorption Mechanisms in the mmw Frequency Range. Andreas Christ

Stat 5101 Lecture Notes

PATTERN RECOGNITION AND MACHINE LEARNING CHAPTER 2: PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

The Normal Linear Regression Model with Natural Conjugate Prior. March 7, 2016

Step-Stress Models and Associated Inference

Estimation of Quantiles

Moments of the Reliability, R = P(Y<X), As a Random Variable

TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1 COMBINATORIAL PROBABILITY 1

Chapter 3 Common Families of Distributions

An Introduction to Bayesian Linear Regression

Parameter Estimation

Monte Carlo Studies. The response in a Monte Carlo study is a random variable.

C4-304 STATISTICS OF LIGHTNING OCCURRENCE AND LIGHTNING CURRENT S PARAMETERS OBTAINED THROUGH LIGHTNING LOCATION SYSTEMS

Error analysis for efficiency

DS-GA 1002 Lecture notes 11 Fall Bayesian statistics

Subject CS1 Actuarial Statistics 1 Core Principles

Consideration of prior information in the inference for the upper bound earthquake magnitude - submitted major revision

Irr. Statistical Methods in Experimental Physics. 2nd Edition. Frederick James. World Scientific. CERN, Switzerland

The Mixture Approach for Simulating New Families of Bivariate Distributions with Specified Correlations

σ(a) = a N (x; 0, 1 2 ) dx. σ(a) = Φ(a) =

Deep Variational Inference. FLARE Reading Group Presentation Wesley Tansey 9/28/2016

Approximate Bayesian Computation

INVERTED KUMARASWAMY DISTRIBUTION: PROPERTIES AND ESTIMATION

Noninformative Priors for the Ratio of the Scale Parameters in the Inverted Exponential Distributions

Hybrid Censoring; An Introduction 2

Gaussian kernel GARCH models

Bayesian Quadrature: Model-based Approximate Integration. David Duvenaud University of Cambridge

Estimation in an Exponentiated Half Logistic Distribution under Progressively Type-II Censoring

Bayesian Linear Models

Least Absolute Value vs. Least Squares Estimation and Inference Procedures in Regression Models with Asymmetric Error Distributions

Bayesian Methods for Machine Learning

A Bayesian Method for Guessing the Extreme Values in a Data Set

Density Estimation. Seungjin Choi

Bayesian Semiparametric GARCH Models

Bayes and Empirical Bayes Estimation of the Scale Parameter of the Gamma Distribution under Balanced Loss Functions

Bayesian Semiparametric GARCH Models

Objective Experiments Glossary of Statistical Terms

U.P., India Dr.Vijay Kumar, Govt. College for Women, M.A. Road Srinagar (J & K), India ABSTRACT

Review. DS GA 1002 Statistical and Mathematical Models. Carlos Fernandez-Granda

Modelling Operational Risk Using Bayesian Inference

Bayesian Learning. HT2015: SC4 Statistical Data Mining and Machine Learning. Maximum Likelihood Principle. The Bayesian Learning Framework

2D Image Processing (Extended) Kalman and particle filter

Chapter 6. Estimation of Confidence Intervals for Nodal Maximum Power Consumption per Customer

Checking the Reliability of Reliability Models.

A Very Brief Summary of Statistical Inference, and Examples

STA414/2104. Lecture 11: Gaussian Processes. Department of Statistics

3 Joint Distributions 71

Lecture 3. G. Cowan. Lecture 3 page 1. Lectures on Statistical Data Analysis

Bayesian Microwave Breast Imaging

Parametric Inference Maximum Likelihood Inference Exponential Families Expectation Maximization (EM) Bayesian Inference Statistical Decison Theory

PARAMETER ESTIMATION: BAYESIAN APPROACH. These notes summarize the lectures on Bayesian parameter estimation.

(4) One-parameter models - Beta/binomial. ST440/550: Applied Bayesian Statistics

Bayesian Graphical Models

Tutorial on Approximate Bayesian Computation

The Bayesian Choice. Christian P. Robert. From Decision-Theoretic Foundations to Computational Implementation. Second Edition.

Statistical Inference and Methods

EMF PENETRATION IN BIOLOGICAL TISSUE WHEN EXPOSED IN THE NEAR FIELD OF A MOBILE PHONE ANTENNA

Post-exam 2 practice questions 18.05, Spring 2014

Readings: K&F: 16.3, 16.4, Graphical Models Carlos Guestrin Carnegie Mellon University October 6 th, 2008

Bayesian statistics. DS GA 1002 Statistical and Mathematical Models. Carlos Fernandez-Granda

Beyond Mean Regression

ICML Scalable Bayesian Inference on Point processes. with Gaussian Processes. Yves-Laurent Kom Samo & Stephen Roberts

ABC methods for phase-type distributions with applications in insurance risk problems

Preface Introduction to Statistics and Data Analysis Overview: Statistical Inference, Samples, Populations, and Experimental Design The Role of

Bayesian Inference for DSGE Models. Lawrence J. Christiano

Web Appendix for Hierarchical Adaptive Regression Kernels for Regression with Functional Predictors by D. B. Woodard, C. Crainiceanu, and D.

A general mixed model approach for spatio-temporal regression data

STA 4273H: Statistical Machine Learning

F & B Approaches to a simple model

Statistics in Environmental Research (BUC Workshop Series) II Problem sheet - WinBUGS - SOLUTIONS

Generative Clustering, Topic Modeling, & Bayesian Inference

Likelihood-free MCMC

Bayesian Model Diagnostics and Checking

Bayesian linear regression

FINITE MIXTURES OF LOGNORMAL AND GAMMA DISTRIBUTIONS

Bayesian Deep Learning

Non-Parametric Bayes

Cluster investigations using Disease mapping methods International workshop on Risk Factors for Childhood Leukemia Berlin May

Algorithmisches Lernen/Machine Learning

Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning. Bishop Chapter 2: Probability Distributions

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS. J. Elder CSE 6390/PSYC 6225 Computational Modeling of Visual Perception

Linear Regression. Data Model. β, σ 2. Process Model. ,V β. ,s 2. s 1. Parameter Model

SIMULATION SEMINAR SERIES INPUT PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Introduction into Bayesian statistics

Research Projects. Hanxiang Peng. March 4, Department of Mathematical Sciences Indiana University-Purdue University at Indianapolis

Cromwell's principle idealized under the theory of large deviations

IEOR E4570: Machine Learning for OR&FE Spring 2015 c 2015 by Martin Haugh. The EM Algorithm

Transcription:

Statistical Analysis of the Whole Body Specific Absorption Rate using Human Body Characteristics El Habachi A, Conil E, Hadjem A, Gati A, Wong M-F and Wiart J, Whist lab & Orange Labs Vazquez E and Fleury G, Supélec 05/11/2009,

Contents section 1 Context & problematic section 2 WBSAR surrogate model section 3 Sequential Bayesian experiment planning section 4 Conclusion

Contents section 1 Context & problematic section 2 WBSAR surrogate model section 3 Sequential Bayesian experiment planning section 4 Conclusion

Context Normative context Basic Restrictions (BR): SAR over 10 grams and over the whole body Difficult to check in situ Reference Levels (RL) : max. allowed EMF and power density Guaranty the compliance to BR Established several years ago Dosimetric context Anatomical phantoms Large variability of the exposure in the existing set of phantoms How to characterize the exposure for an entire population?

Problematic : How to characterize the exposure for an entire population? 18 phantoms X Monte Carlo method WBSAR surrogate model Focus on the probability of failure. WBSAR density for the population Region of interest : Upper 95 % bound WBSAR Exposure configuration : frontal plane wave polarized vertically at the frequency 2100 MHz and incident power of 1W/m² How to build such surrogate model?

Contents section 1 Context & problematic section 2 WBSAR surrogate model section 3 Sequential Bayesian experiment planning section 4 Conclusion

Surrogate model building Observation on phantom's families WBSAR (W/Kg) 14 x 10-3 12 10 8 6 4 VH Familiy JM Family JF Family Norman Family Korean Family Zubal Family 2 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 BMI (-1) WBSAR calculated using the FDTD method Percentage 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 5 years Percentage of main tissues for Zubal family 8 years 12 years 1 2 3 4 Tissues Skin Fat Muscles Bones Adult y = βx + ε, estimation error WBSAR inverse of the Body Mass Index (BMI =weight/height²) unknown parameter depending on internal morphology β estimated by Least square Method 30% of error on the WBSAR

Description of the surrogate model Y = β.x Input data X = inverse of BMI statistical available data in literature β = internal morphology no statistical data for populations Unknown statistical distribution : Estimation of the distribution by different types of statistical laws ( parametric ones and Gaussian mixture) Output data Threshold of WBSAR at 95% What is our knowledge on β?

Knowledge on β Physical knowledge β depends on internal morphology β is bounded (human morphology is bounded) : β low and β upp (lower and upper bound) β is positive (WBSAR is positive) Additional constraints Mean value : most of phantoms match to the mean of population they come from β i= 1 < β >= 18 β low = 0 (WBSAR >0) β upp = 0.3: chosen by assuming a symmetry around the mean 18 i 0.15 Quantile at 95% - Mean 30 25 20 15 10 Anthropometric Database The independence between β and X (to be relaxed) 5 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Mean - Qauntile at 5%

Parametric laws : Gamma, Beta, Normal, Weibull and Log-normal Most of morphological external factors belongs to the parametric laws family. Application to the French population aged of 20 years : BMI~N(22.29, 2.9²) Density Densité 15 10 Gamma Weibull Log-normale Beta Normal Param. laws Gamma Beta Normal Weibull Log-normal Threshold of the WBSAR at 95 % (mw/kg) 9.2 9.3 11 10.5 9.1 5 Std/mean 9% 0 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 alpha Beta Weak variability of the WBSAR at 95% whatever the parametric law

Relaxation of the independency between β and X 35 BMI 30 25 20 15 10 0.1 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.18 Beta negative correlation treshold of the WBSAR at 95 % Relaxation of the independency 0.0135 0.013 0.0125 0.012 0.0115 0.011 0.0105 0.01 Beta belongs to [0, 0.3] Beta~Beta Beta~Gamma Beta~Log-Normal Beta~Weibull Beta~Normal 0.0095-1 -0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2 0 Correlation correlation WBSAR at 95%

Gaussian Mixture Density probability function for β that maximizes the threshold of the WBSAR. n pβ ( β) = pig ( β) m i, σ i i= 1 n pi = 1 i= 1 0 pi 1 From knowledge to Constraints : β positive and belongs to [β low, β upp ] : m n + 3σ n = β upp and m 1-3σ 1 = β low 99.74% of the probability density belongs to [β low, β upp ] Additional constraints : n Known mean : p i = 1 i 0.15 σ i does not appear in the estimated CDF : choice of σ i = σ m i Smoothness : m i m i-1 = σ i (Rayleigh Criterion) Unimodality : PDF with single mode (p i p i+1 p j et p j p j+1 p n )

Number of Gaussian in mixture Taylor development CDF WBSAR 0.014 estimated threshold by approximation of the CDF compared to the empirical threshold obtained using Monte Carlo PDF obtained for 20 Gaussian French population 6 Threshold of the WBSAR at 95 %(W/Kg) 0.013 0.012 0.011 0.01 0.009 Empirical threshold Estimated threshold Example for the 1 st mode 0.008 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Number of Gaussians Density 5 4 3 2 1 0-0.05 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 Beta Threshold of the WBSAR at 95 % (mw/kg) Gamma 9.2 Beta 9.3 Norma l 11 Weib ull 10.5 Lognormal 9.1 Gaussian mixture 13.2 1st mode median mode last mode

Bell-shaped Gaussian mixture To obtain bell-shaped PDF, a constraint on the variance is introduced : n 2 2 var( β) = p (m 2 < β > m ) + σ + < β > i= 1 i i i 2 Bound The initial variance depends on the mode and the number of Gaussians: For a mixture of 20 Gaussians the variance belongs to [4.5.10-3,5.3.10-3 ] Density 30 Bound = 2.3.10-4 25 20 15 10 5 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.2 Beta Gamma Beta Normal Weibull Log-normal Gaussian mixture Threshold of the WBSAR at 95 % (mw/kg) 9.2 9.3 11 10.5 9.1 8.9

Contents section 1 Context & problematic section 2 WBSAR surrogate model section 3 Sequential Bayesian experiment planning section 4 Conclusion

Context How to separate the internal and external factors impacting the WBSAR? use of homogeneous phantoms Homogeneous phantoms Equivalent liquid (IEC) Morphing technique to deform the external shapes of the existing phantoms Monte Carlo is still expensive to characterize the threshold of the WBSAR at 95 % for a given population. Sequential Bayesian Experiment Planning : allow finding the morphology corresponding to the region of 95 %. WBSAR density for the population Region of interest : Upper 95 % bound WBSAR

How to extend the database of phantoms? Morphing technique to deform homogeneous phantoms Deforming factors used: height, inside leg height, front shoulder breadth, chest and waist Laws of the deforming factors: parametric laws Studied population Anthropometric database of French population Sample of 3800 adults Log-normal and normal laws to estimate the density of the deforming factors Examples of morphed phantoms Density 0.04 0.035 0.03 0.025 0.02 0.015 0.01 0.005 Stature Log-normale Normale Gamma 0 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 Stature Height

Parametric model Using existing simulations, a suitable model is written as follow chest waist WBSAR = θ1height + θ2 + θ3 + θ4 front shoulder breadth front shoulder breadth Initial observations D-optimal design to choose observations that allow obtaining a small confident region for the parameters 6 initial observations F n = (x i, y i ) i= 1,...,n Xi = factors of the parametric model (height, waist ) Yi = WBSAR calculated with FDTD + ε Height F.S.B chest waist WBSAR (mw/kg) 1,57 1,81 1,918 2,02 0,346 0,417 0,389 0,524 1,144 1,246 1,147 1,114 1,056 0,899 1,197 0,896 3,87 4,7 4,48 5,68 Choose observations to refine the region of interest (WBSAR at 95%) 1,98 0,435 0,968 1,024 4,75 1,38 0,372 0,782 0,663 7,64

Sequential Bayesian Experiment Planning Prior Law : Non-informative initial observations F n = (x i, yi ) i= 1,...,n Bayes Formula P( Θ \ F n ) = P( Θ).P(F n \ Θ) where Θ = [ θ 1, θ 2, θ 3, θ 4 ] Posterior law Likelihood Criteria to choose the next candidate: diminution of the variance of the threshold of the WBSAR at 95 % Θ 1 PDF WBSAR 1 PDF WBSAR at 95 % Θ 2 Θ 3 PDF WBSAR 2 PDF WBSAR 3 σ Initial observations x

Results Variance of the quantile of the WBSAR at 95 % 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 4 x 10-7 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 iteration number Mean of the quantile of the WBSAR (mw/kg) 7.6 7.4 7.2 7 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Iteration number One phantom having a WBSAR of 0,007 W/kg Stability of the mean of the quantile at 0.007 W/Kg Height =147 cm Chest =76.5 cm Waist = 65 cm Frontal shoulder breadth= 34 cm Weight = 49 Kg WBSAR = 0,007W/kg

Contents section 1 Context & problematic section 2 WBSAR surrogate model section 3 Sequential Bayesian experiment planning section 4 Conclusion

Conclusion WBSAR surrogate model for heterogeneous phantoms External morphology characterized by the BMI Internal morphology described by different types of statistical laws weak variability of the WBSAR at 95% in term of the type of the laws WBSAR at 95% maximized using Gaussian mixture (0,013W/kg) WBSAR parametric model for homogeneous phantoms Morphing technique to obtain additional phantoms Baysian inference to choose new observations after 25 iterations, stability of the variance of the WBSAR at 95% 0,007 W/kg: mean value obtained for the WBSAR at 95% Future work : to assess the influence of the dielectric properties in the parametric model

thank you