Climate Change in Minnesota: Current Trends and Projections Dr. Mark Seeley Dept of Soil, Water, and Climate University of Minnesota Clean Water and Climate Adaptation Summit University of Minnesota Landscape Arboretum Chaska, MN September 17, 2010
citizens do not use the news media as scientists assume.faced with a.torrent of daily news, citizens use their value predispositions.as perceptual screens (Nisbet and Mooney) Science, 316. pg 56, Apr 6, 2007) To engage the public on climate change we must give attention to the 5 Cs: common experience, core values, community, citizenship, and civility (Minnesota sculture)
Data Source: NOAA-NCDC_HCN
Non-climatic climatic influences Local climate change Equipment bias Site bias Measurement contamination Observational errors Transcription error (data entry) Time-of-observation bias Global climate change
RECENT SIGNIFICANT CLIMATE TRENDS IN MINNESOTA AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TEMPERATURE:: WARM WINTERS AND HIGHER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DEWPOINTS: GREATER FREQUENCY OF TROPICAL-LIKE ATMOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR MOISTURE: AMPLIFIED PRECIPITATION SIGNAL, THUNDERSTORM CONTRIBUTION
Temperature trends based on HCN data
Statewide Annual Temperature History
Winter (D,J,F) Spring (M,A,M) Seasonal Temperature Trends in MN Summer (J,J,A) Fall ll(s,o,n)
Figure 3.10 Seasonality in temperature change IPCC-2007
IPCC-2007 Warming is weighted towards minimum temperature change
Trends in average winter minimum temperatures International Falls, MN Period of Record 1951-1980 1961-1990 1971-2000 1951-1980 1961-1990 1971-2000 1951-1980 1961-1990 1971-2000 Ave Min Temp in Deg. F Jan -11.0 Jan -8.4 Jan -8.3 Feb -4.8 Feb -0.7 07 Feb -0.6 Mar 8.9 Mar 12.3 Mar 12.6
Possible Implications of Warm Winters and Higher Minimum i Temperatures Change in depth and duration of soil and lake freezing More rapid breakdown of crop residues Later fall nitrogen applications Longer outdoor construction season, fewer adverse weather days Change in over winter survival rates of insect pests and plant diseases, and soil microbes Reduced d energy use for heating Increased number of freeze/thaw cycles Change in animal migration, hibernation, and foraging Longer exposure times to mold and allergens
Temperature and Ice Trends on Lake Superior From research by J. Austin and S Colman, UMD- Large Lakes Observatory
Summer Climate
Trend in number of days with max temp of 90 F or higher is negative for Twin Cities MSP Days Max Temp => 90 45 40 35 30 da ays 25 20 15 10 5 0 194 45 195 50 195 55 196 60 196 65 197 70 197 75 198 80 198 85 199 90 199 95 200 00 200 05 year
Trend in dewpoints of 70 F or higher in the Twin Cities MSP Dewpoint Days => 70 1945-2004 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 days 10 5 0 2005 1945 1950 19555 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20000 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 year days where 18hr => 70 days where max => 70 linear reg linear reg Annual Hours of Dew Point Temperature => 70 degrees F Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN hours 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 year
Trends in average summer minimum temperatures St Peter, MN Period of Record 1951-1980 1961-1990 1971-2000 1979-2008 1951-1980 1961-1990 1971-2000 1979 9-2008 1951-1980 1961-1990 1971-2000 1979-2008 Ave Min Temp in Deg. F Jun 56.7 Jun 56.6 Jun 56.7 Jun 56.9 Jul 61.1 Jul 61.2 Jul 61.3 Jul 61.9 Aug 58.5 Aug 58.9 Aug 59.0 Aug 59.6
Minnesota Statewide May Through September Mean Temperature Ranking of the past 17 Growing Seasons (1994-2010) Year Percentile Rank for 1895-2006 (mean temp) 1994 66 (62.8 F) 1995 * 79 (63.3 F) 1996 * 40 (61.9 F) 1997 48 (62.1 F) 1998 108 (64.8 F) 1999 * 78 (63.3 F) 2000 53 (62.3 F) 2001 * 93 (63.8 F) 2002 * 80 (63.3 F) 2003 * 73 (63.1 F) 2004 12 (60.3 F) 2005 * 85 (63.6 F) 2006 * 96 (63.9 F) 2007 * 104 (64.66 F) 2008 35 (61.7 F) 2009 27 (61.3 F) 2010 * 82 (63.4 F) * Denotes summer dewpoint of 80 F or higher
Frequencies of July tropical dew points (70 F or higher) and associated Heat Index values for the Twin Cities since 1945. Year Hours with DP of Range of Heat 70 F or greater Index Values (F) 1949 223 98-112 1987 207 98-104 1955 207 98-113 1999 205 98 115 (125*) 1957 193 99 114 2001 163 98-110 1977 159 100-108 1983 156 102-110 1995 108 98-116 2005 94 98 109 (125*) 2010 204 98-108
Historical Minnesota Heat Waves: Red ddenotes dewpoint tdriven 1883, 1894, 1901, 1910, 1917, 1921, 1931, 1933, 1934, 1936, 1937, 1947, 1948, 1949, 1955, 1957, 1959, 1964, 1976, 1977, 1983, 1988, 1995,1999,, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010
Possible Implications of Increased Frequency in Tropical Dew Points? Dynamics of pathogen, insect, and microorganism populations Efficacy and persistence of herbicides (volatility) Elevated water temperatures, algae blooms Increased workload in heat related health care (exposure differentials, MS, COPD, Obesity) Increased stress on livestock (change in ration, water, reduced milk production and reproduction problems) Increased demand for air conditioning
First ever F-5 tornado (winds > 261 mph) in Canada Elie, Manitoba, June 22, 2007
Precipitation Observers all locations including SWCD Design spacing for SWCD gages iis every other township (12 miles)) or better. 1466 observers June 2004
Precipitation it ti ranking of the most recent 30 years across Minnesota relative to the 1890-2009 period
MN Annual Precipitation with 5-yr Tendencies
Precipitation trends based on HCN data
Winter-D,J,F, Spring-M,A,M Seasonality in MN Precipitation Trends Fall-S,O,N Summer-J,J,A
Change in Annual Precipitation Normals at Waseca, MN PERIOD AMOUNT (IN.) 1921-19501950 27.55 1931-1960 1960 27.82 1941-19701970 29.94 1951-19801980 30.62 1961-19901990 32.45 1971-2000 34.69 1978-2007 35.84 30 percent increase since 1921-1950 1950 period
water vapor and clouds are far and away the most important greenhouse substances in the atmosphere [quantity, type, and distribution are important] K. Emanuel Quantity is but one character of precipitation
Historical recurrence interval of 2 inch rains in MN is once per year. Observed 2 inch rainfalls for the period 1991 2008 and maximum single day value for MN communities: Location No. 2 in. rains Maximum Value (date) Zumbrota 30 6.46 (6/27/98) Albert Lea 30 7.50 (6/15/78) Preston 31 6.60 (7/21/51) Red Wing 27 7.78 (7/1/78) Lake City 35 5.60 (5/28/70) Waseca 31 5.40 (8/31/62) Winnebago 36 8.64 (9/25/2005) Bricelyn 30 9.22 (9/14/2004) Amboy 30 4.69 (8/19/2007) Hokah 28 15.10 (8/19/2007)
Historic Droughts (Associated fires) 1829, 1852, 1856 1863-1864, 1871-1872 1894, 1896, 1900, 1910, 1918, 1921-1923 1926, 1929-1934, 1936-1939, 1948, 1954-1956, 1956, 1961, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1987 1988 1997 200 1987, 1988, 1997, 200 5-2007 2008 2009
Climate Singularity = 24 counties included in USDA drought disaster declaration of August 7, 2007 Note: adjacent 32 counties were also eligible for assistance = Counties included in federal flood disaster declaration of August 20, 2007 and eligible for FEMA assistance
Attributes of this storm: Observers in 28 counties reported 4 or more Observers in 3 counties (Winona, Fillmore, Houston) reported 14 or more Dewpoints 60-65 degrees F Diffuse, weak jet stream
Possible Implications of Changes in Precipitation it ti Quantity and Character Altered irrigation, drainage, runoff, sediment, and shoreline management Change in storm sewer runoff design Modified fisheries management Mitigation of soil erosion Mitigation of flooding potential Better management of blowing snow and spring snowmelt runoff
IPCC model projections based on scenarios
Glossary - acronyms BC Bias Correction CA Constructed Analogues CDF Cumulative Distribution Function CF Climate and Forecast (metadata conventions) CMIP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ESG Earth System Grid GCM General Circulation Model, global climate model IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change NARCCAP North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Project NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research NCDC National Climatic Data Center netcdf network Common Data Form (ALL GCM data in this format) PCDMI Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison SD/SDS Statistical Downscaling SRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC)» A/B: business-as usual (growth)/ green, 1/2: one world / to each his own WCRP World Climate Research Program