Global Urbanization Today: Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Global Urbanization Today: Low- and Middle-Income Countries Mark R. Montgomery Stony Brook University and Population Council, NY May 25, 2015 Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 1 / 36

Urban Challenges in the 21st Century: Urbanization in Poor Countries Large increases in world population lie ahead; almost all growth to occur in the cities and towns of poor countries. Today s urban dwellers, and those of the future, will live mainly in small and medium-sized cities. Decentralization National governments transferring responsibilities into hands of state and municipal governments, which typically lack resources and all manner of bureaucratic expertise. Governance and the Urban Poor As urbanization proceeds, the poor will increasingly be found in developing-country cities and towns; success in poverty alleviation will become a test of urban governance. Extreme-event risks As global warming takes hold, the consequences (floods, droughts) will be borne by city and town dwellers of poor countries, as well as rural dwellers. But national adaptation plans typically ignore urban areas and the urban poor. Post 2015 Sustainable Development Goals How will such urban concerns be recognized, measured, and monitored? Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 2 / 36

Emergence of New National Governmental Systems: Decentralization National governments are passing to lower-level tiers of government important functions, responsibilities, revenue-raising authority, and (sometimes) revenues. Powerful notion of moving government closer to the people, in theory improving responsiveness Highly variable implementation Municipal and state governments increasingly important in setting policies and programs but often poorly resourced and under-staffed Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 3 / 36

Data and Governance in Poor Countries Almost all poor countries collect spatially-specific population and socioeconomic data via population censuses But unlike the high-income countries of Europe and North America, poor countries do not systematically analyze and distribute spatially-specific data to their local governments and civil society Latin American countries the prominent exception: Detailed, easily accessible data seen as essential to good governance. Mexico, Brazil, Uruguay and other examples. This view gaining adherents (e.g., India for its 2011 census) But elsewhere, national statistical offices do not view data analysis and distribution as part of their work Smaller-city governments especially disadvantaged. Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 4 / 36

How Can International Research Help? Development assistance for analysis as well as collection of population census data Publication of jurisdictional boundary shapefiles, and summaries of socioeconomic data by jurisdiction (as in Latin America) Move the development and scientific conversation away from rural urban to a focus on places: specific cities and towns Emphasize the need to link population data to spatial data and population researchers to remote-sensing and other spatially-informed researchers. Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 5 / 36

Time to Jettison Urban Sector and Rural Sector? We think that the term urban aids understanding of development, and helps to guide programs and development policies in a constructive way. But does it? Can we not substitute rural urban continuum or connectedness for the increasingly stale conception of an urban rural dichotomy? Rural villagers participate (directly or indirectly) in urban economic, social, governance and health systems. Two-way connections via migration, remittances, and multiple input and output markets. Spatial data illuminate these connections Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 6 / 36

For Climate Adaptation, Focus on Places: Cities and Towns Urban is an abstraction, not really an actionable concept. But cities and towns are specific places, overseen by municipal and other governments. This shift of perspective brings gaps and deficiencies of national statistical systems into plain view. Most countries collect very little reliable demographic, economic, health, and social data at the level of individual cities and towns. How will the post-2015 statistical systems monitor cities and towns? Population censuses are the major exception. They must in my view be assigned a major role in the post-2015 measurement and monitoring agenda. Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 7 / 36

The Demography The Urban Demography of Poor Countries: Who lives where today? Forecasts of size and location of population growth Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 8 / 36

The Demography UN Projects Enormous Growth in Urban Populations Development Level (Dashed Line shows Rural Growth): Developed Developing 300 Total Population Growth in Previous 5 Years (millions) 200 100 0-100 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 Year Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 9 / 36

The Demography Urban Population Size by Region, Low- and Middle-Income Countries Urban Population, in Billions 0 1 2 3 4 Africa Latin America Asia Oceania 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 Year Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 10 / 36

The Demography What s Distinctive About Today s Urban Transition? Let s correct some common misunderstandings: Urban population growth rates are higher than in comparable periods in the West lower urban mortality, stubbornly high urban fertility in some cases, urban population momentum from past growth But the pace of urban growth that is, the change in percentage urban over time is not historically unusual. It is not correct to say that urbanization is proceeding faster than in the history of the West. Although information is limited, it is not obvious that rural-to-urban migration rates for today s poor countries are distinctively higher or lower than in the past. Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 11 / 36

The Demography Clearly Unprecedented: Number of Cities of 1 Million+ 431 Total Number of Cities 0 100 200 300 400 36 3 2 97 6 5 102 12 5 33 2 0 238 22 12 38 21 1950 2000 2025 1950 2000 2025 More developed regions Less developed regions Cities 1 5 Million Cities 5 10 Million Cities 10 Million+ Preston (1980) termed this urban gigantism. ontgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 12 / 36

The Demography Cities of 1 Million+ in 2000, by Region 160 Total Number of Cities 0 50 100 150 44 34 17 2 1 3 4 Africa LAC Asia 7 Cities 1 5 Million Cities 5 10 Million Cities 10 Million+ Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 13 / 36

The Demography Urban Population by City Size: Smaller Places Matter! 0/100 75 9.6% 8.6% 21.2% 10.4% 50 50.2% 25 CitySize Fewer than 500,000 500,000 to 1 million 1 million to 5 million 5 million to 10 million 10 million or more However, among all urban dwellers, fewer than 1 in 10 live in so-called mega-cities. Far larger percentages in smaller cities and towns. ontgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 14 / 36

The Demography Sources of City and Urban Population Growth Natural increase Multiple credible estimates indicate that the share of urban growth due to natural increase is about 60 percent. The exact figure varies across countries (depending on fertility levels) and over time for given cities but 60 percent is a passable rule of thumb. City growth is only partly due to migration. Origin of urban in-migrants Today, even in relatively low-urbanized countries, more urban in-migrants come from other urban areas than from rural villages! Are in-migrants disadvantaged? Do they live in slums? Some are disadvantaged and live in slums; others aren t and don t. The common perception needs critical examination. Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 15 / 36

The Demography The 60/40 Rule The United Nations rule-of-thumb: In developing countries, about 60 percent of the urban growth rate is due to natural growth, the difference between urban fertility and mortality rates. The remaining 40 percent is due to migration and spatial expansion. Similar rule applies to countries followed over time: 60 percent figure cited in Handbook of Indian Urbanization (2005:32) for four decades from 1961 to 2001. China the great exception to the 60/40 rule low fertility, migration tightly controlled, then unleashed. Population of floating migrants estimated at 150 million. Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 16 / 36

The Demography Keep Urban Natural Increase in Mind! Many countries are nervous about city growth and have forcefully discouraged migration often via punitive, brutal, welfare-reducing and (ultimately) ineffective actions such as forced evictions. More enlightened regional development policies are promising, but seldom produce rapid change in pace and spatial distribution of population growth. But voluntary urban family planning programs have proven effectiveness against a major component of city growth. This simple point is almost universally ignored. Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 17 / 36

The Demography Cities and Towns: Linking Population to Spatial Extents Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 18 / 36

Change Over Time: The UN Cities Database UN Population Division: City Population Time-Series Longitudinal data: Population counts for individual cities over time, reported at irregular intervals. Long time-series, in many cases (5+ observations) The UN monitors all cities of 100,000 population and above; when a given city crosses this threshold, the UN attempts to reconstruct its history. Since 1970s, UN asks for data on urban agglomerations but countries often supply counts for the city proper, the metropolitan area, or in unspecified types. No boundaries as such only the type of boundary. Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 19 / 36

Change Over Time: The UN Cities Database Improving the UN Cities Database 1 Bring spatial content to a currently aspatial database. Short-term goal: Vigorously clean and update the city data, include basic spatial identifiers, and explore spatial factors influencing growth. Longer-term goal: Need to assemble a geographic database using the smallest available geographic building blocks to which population data can be attached. Need to add meaningful jurisdictional boundaries 2 Need better coverage of smaller cities and towns, where a large percentage of urban residents live, and to areas on the peripheries of large cities or lying between cities that are likely to fuse with these urban populations. 3 Need to incorporate land cover rasters Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 20 / 36

Change Over Time: The UN Cities Database Heterogeneous City Histories: Luanda, Angola 4000 3000 Population (000s) 2000 1000 BoundaryType City Proper Unknown Urban Agglomeration 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 21 / 36

Change Over Time: The UN Cities Database Spatial Expressions of Population Growth: GHSL Percent_1975 Percent_1990 100 80 60 Percent_2000 Percent_2014 40 20 0 Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 22 / 36

Change Over Time: The UN Cities Database Heterogeneity across Cities and Time 4000 3000 Population (000s) 2000 BoundaryType City Proper Unknown Urban Agglomeration 1000 0 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 23 / 36

Change Over Time: The UN Cities Database Forecasting City Size and Growth The Science Behind the UN s City and Urban Forecasts Since the early 1980s, forecasts based on a simple extrapolation method that produces substantial, well-documented forecast errors. A high-priority area for research new work would be welcomed by the UN. Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 24 / 36

Change Over Time: The UN Cities Database Urban Population Forecast Errors for the Year 2000 Source: Cities Transformed, 2003 Mean Percentage Forecast Errors 1980 2000 1990 2000 1995 2000 Region East Asia and Pacific 3.9 26.7-2.8 EAP excluding China 18.4 9.8-0.4 Latin America and Carib. 19.8 5.4-0.9 Middle East and North Africa 13.3 6.8 8.5 South Asia 27.2 19.7 2.7 Sub-Saharan Africa 21.8 23.4 5.5 Level of Development Low 23.1 18.3 3.2 Lower Middle 6.9 26.1-1.3 Lower Middle excluding China 25.6 9.9 3.7 Upper Middle 12.8 8.9 0.8 Figures show population-weighted averages of ( Ut,2000/U f 2000 1 ) 100 with Ut,2000 f the UN forecast made in year t = 1980, 1990, 1995 of a country s total urban population in the year 2000, and U 2000 the actual population in 2000. Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 25 / 36

Urban Poverty and Governance Urban Poverty and Governance Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 26 / 36

Urban Poverty and Governance Urban Poverty in the Millennium Development Goals Target 11 The United Nations Millennium Declaration specified a target of achieving by 2020 significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers. UN-HABITAT estimates that there are already nearly 1 billion slum dwellers in developing countries. Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 27 / 36

Urban Poverty and Governance Recent Estimates of Slum Dwellers Slum Population in Millions 0 50 100 150 200 250 Southern Asia Sub Saharan Africa South Eastern Asia North Africa Eastern Asia Latin America Western Asia Oceania Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 28 / 36

Urban Poverty and Governance Poverty Rates Higher in Secondary Cities: Côte d Ivoire 60 Abidjan Other Cities Proportion Under US$2 Per Day 40 20 0 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 Year Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 29 / 36

Urban Poverty and Governance Is Urban Poverty Spatially Concentrated? Major unanswered questions: What exactly are slums? And where are they? (Officially recognized?) What proportion of the urban poor live in slums? What proportion of slum residents are poor? How long do slum residents stay in those neighborhoods? Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 30 / 36

Urban Poverty and Governance Important Limitations UN-Habitat estimates the number of urban dwellers with inadequate housing, access to drinking water, and sanitation, from a careful analysis of over one hundred DHS and MICS surveys. Despite slum-dwellers label, no consideration of spatial concentration Spatial concentration difficult to measure from survey data alone Should be interpreted as estimates of the number of urban poor, not slum-dwellers as such. Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 31 / 36

Urban Poverty and Governance Are Most of the Urban Poor Slum-Dwellers? We don t know. For India, however, Chandrasekhar and Montgomery (2009) found: Poor Urban Households Non-Poor Urban Households Unlisted Slums Listed Slums Non-Slums Total 6.7 11.4 81.2 100.0% 2.2 5.0 92.4 100.0% Siddharth Agarwal (Urban Health Resource Centre, New Delhi) shows that official records of unlisted slums are woefully incomplete in several cities, number understated by half. Even with this adjustment, slum-dwellers would not represent the majority of the urban poor. Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 32 / 36

The Post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals What s Being Considered for the Post 2015 SDGs? A Sustainable Urbanization Goal Appears all but certain to be adopted in September 2015: Goal 11. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable Targets and Indicators The upcoming tasks: Frame goals in terms of sub-national, disaggregated targets and indicators Where possible, localize these to city regions, with roles for local urban governments? Must overlay statistical monitoring systems and governmental systems to know what is feasible in the near term. Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 33 / 36

The Post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals Proposed Targets for the Urbanization Goal Include: Adequate, safe and affordable housing and basic services and upgrade slums Significantly reduce the number of deaths and the number of people affected and decrease by [x] per cent the economic losses... disasters, including water-related disasters, with a focus on protecting the poor and people in vulnerable situations Reduce per capita environmental impact of cities (air quality and municipal and other waste management) Integrated policies for mitigation and adaptation to climate change, resilience to disasters, in line with the forthcoming Hyogo Framework Participatory, integrated and sustainable human settlement planning Support positive economic, social and environmental links between urban, peri-urban and rural areas by strengthening national and regional development planning Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 34 / 36

The Post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals Other SDG Goals Relevant to Cities and Towns Include: Reduce extreme poverty and poverty as nationally defined Reduce hunger and malnutrition (recognizes internal markets) Reduce maternal, child mortality and mortality from both communicable and non-communicable disease. (Road traffic accidents specifically mentioned.) Universal access to family planning. Reductions in air, water, and soil pollution Adequate access to drinking water, sanitation; reductions of water pollution Effective climate change-related planning and management in least developed countries, focusing on women, youth and local and marginalized communities Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 35 / 36

The Post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals New Space is Opening for International Research The proposed SDGs recognize (implicitly) the value of spatially-refined estimates and forecasts, at the subnational and even city levels Much work remains to construct national monitoring systems adequate to the task ahead Population censuses are still under-exploited! Vast array of spatially-explicit remotely-sensed and other data an enormously valuable, unprecedented set of assets for the SDGs. Countries and international agencies will need assistance to make the most of these new assets. Montgomery (Stony Brook UniversityandPopulation Council, NY)Urban May 25, 2015 36 / 36