From Practical Data Analysis with JMP, Second Edition. Full book available for purchase here. Contents About This Book... xiii About The Author... xxiii Chapter 1 Getting Started: Data Analysis with JMP... 1 Overview... 1 Goals of Data Analysis: Description and Inference... 2 Types of Data... 3 Starting JMP... 4 A Simple Data Table... 5 Graph Builder: An Interactive Tool to Explore Data... 9 Using an Analysis Platform... 12 Row States... 14 Exporting JMP Results to a Word-Processor Document... 17 Saving Your Work... 18 Leaving JMP... 19 Chapter 2 Data Sources and Structures... 21 Overview... 21 Populations, Processes, and Samples... 22 Representativeness and Sampling... 23 Simple Random Sampling... 24 Other Types of Random Sampling... 26 Non-Random Sampling... 26 Big Data... 26 Cross-Sectional and Time Series Sampling... 27 Study Design: Experimentation, Observation, and Surveying... 27
iv Experimental Data An Example... 28 Observational Data An Example... 31 Survey Data An Example... 31 Creating a Data Table... 34 Raw Case Data and Summary Data... 34 Application... 36 Chapter 3 Describing a Single Variable... 39 Overview... 39 The Concept of a Distribution... 40 Variable Types and Their Distributions... 40 Distribution of a Categorical Variable... 41 Using the Data Filter to Temporarily Narrow the Focus... 43 Using the Chart Command to Graph Categorical Data... 44 Using the Graph Builder to Explore Categorical Data... 46 Distribution of a Quantitative Variable... 47 Using the Distribution Platform for Continuous Data... 48 Taking Advantage of Linked Graphs and Tables to Explore Data... 51 Customizing Bars and Axes in a Histogram... 52 Exploring Further with the Graph Builder... 54 Summary Statistics for a Single Variable... 55 Outlier Box Plots... 56 Application... 57 Chapter 4 Describing Two Variables at a Time... 63 Overview... 63 Two-by-Two: Bivariate Data... 63 Describing Covariation: Two Categorical Variables... 65 Describing Covariation: One Continuous, One Categorical Variable... 71 Describing Covariation: Two Continuous Variables... 73 More Informative Scatter Plots... 78 Application... 79
v Chapter 5 Review of Descriptive Statistics... 85 Overview... 85 The World Development Indicators... 86 Millennium Development Goals... 86 Questions for Analysis... 87 Applying an Analytic Framework... 88 Data Source and Structure... 88 Observational Units... 89 Variable Definitions and Data Types... 89 Preparation for Analysis... 90 Univariate Descriptions... 90 Explore Relationships with Graph Builder... 93 Further Analysis with the Multivariate Platform... 96 Further Analysis with Fit Y by X... 97 Summing Up: Interpretation and Conclusions... 99 Visualizing Multiple Relationships... 100 Chapter 6 Elementary Probability and Discrete Distributions... 103 Overview... 103 The Role of Probability in Data Analysis... 104 Elements of Probability Theory... 104 Probability of an Event... 105 Rules for Two Events... 106 Assigning Probability Values... 107 Contingency Tables and Probability... 108 Discrete Random Variables: From Events to Numbers... 111 Three Common Discrete Distributions... 111 Integer Distribution... 112 Binomial... 113 Poisson... 115 Simulating Random Variation with JMP... 116 Discrete Distributions as Models of Real Processes... 118 Application... 120
vi Chapter 7 The Normal Model... 125 Overview... 125 Continuous Data and Probability... 125 Density Functions... 126 The Normal Model... 128 Normal Calculations... 129 Solving Cumulative Probability Problems... 130 Solving Inverse Cumulative Problems... 134 Checking Data for the Suitability of a Normal Model... 136 Normal Quantile Plots... 136 Generating Pseudo-Random Normal Data... 140 Application... 141 Chapter 8 Sampling and Sampling Distributions... 145 Overview... 145 Why Sample?... 145 Methods of Sampling... 146 Using JMP to Select a Simple Random Sample... 147 Variability Across Samples: Sampling Distributions... 150 Sampling Distribution of the Sample Proportion... 150 From Simulation to Generalization... 154 Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean... 156 The Central Limit Theorem... 158 Stratification, Clustering, and Complex Sampling (optional)... 161 Application... 164 Chapter 9 Review of Probability and Probabilistic Sampling... 169 Overview... 169 Probability Distributions and Density Functions... 170 The Normal and t Distributions... 170 The Usefulness of Theoretical Models... 172 When Samples Surprise: Ordinary and Extraordinary Sampling Variability... 174 Case 1: Sample Observations of a Categorical Variable... 175 Case 2: Sample Observations of a Continuous Variable... 176 Conclusion... 179
vii Chapter 10 Inference for a Single Categorical Variable... 181 Overview... 181 Two Inferential Tasks... 182 Statistical Inference is Always Conditional... 182 Using JMP to Conduct a Significance Test... 183 Confidence Intervals... 187 Using JMP to Estimate a Population Proportion... 188 Working with Casewise Data... 188 Working with Summary Data... 190 A Few Words About Error... 191 Application... 191 Chapter 11 Inference for a Single Continuous Variable... 197 Overview... 197 Conditions for Inference... 197 Using JMP to Conduct a Significance Test... 198 More About P-Values... 201 The Power of a Test... 203 What if Conditions Aren t Satisfied?... 205 Using JMP to Estimate a Population Mean... 206 Matched Pairs: One Variable, Two Measurements... 207 Application... 209 Chapter 12 Chi-Square Tests... 215 Overview... 215 Chi-Square Goodness-of-Fit Test... 216 What Are We Assuming?... 218 Inference for Two Categorical Variables... 219 Contingency Tables Revisited... 219 Chi-Square Test of Independence... 221 What Are We Assuming?... 223 Application... 224 Chapter 13 Two-Sample Inference for a Continuous Variable... 227 Overview... 227 Conditions for Inference... 227
viii Using JMP to Compare Two Means... 228 Assuming Normal Distributions or CLT... 228 Using Sampling Weights (optional section)... 231 Equal vs. Unequal Variances... 232 Dealing with Non-Normal Distributions... 233 Using JMP to Compare Two Variances... 235 Application... 237 Chapter 14 Analysis of Variance... 241 Overview... 241 What Are We Assuming?... 241 One-Way ANOVA... 243 Does the Sample Satisfy the Assumptions?... 245 Factorial Analysis for Main Effects... 248 What if Conditions Are Not Satisfied?... 251 Including a Second Factor with Two-Way ANOVA... 252 Evaluating Assumptions... 254 Interaction and Main Effects... 255 Application... 259 Chapter 15 Simple Linear Regression Inference... 265 Overview... 265 Fitting a Line to Bivariate Continuous Data... 266 The Simple Regression Model... 269 Thinking About Linearity... 270 Random Error... 271 What Are We Assuming?... 271 Interpreting Regression Results... 272 Summary of Fit... 272 Lack of Fit... 273 Analysis of Variance... 273 Parameter Estimates and t-tests... 274 Testing for a Slope Other Than Zero... 275 Application... 278
ix Chapter 16 Residuals Analysis and Estimation... 285 Overview... 285 Conditions for Least Squares Estimation... 286 Residuals Analysis... 287 Linearity... 289 Curvature... 289 Influential Observations... 291 Normality... 292 Constant Variance... 292 Independence... 293 Estimation... 295 Confidence Intervals for Parameters... 296 Confidence Intervals for Y X... 297 Prediction Intervals for Y X... 298 Application... 299 Chapter 17 Review of Univariate and Bivariate Inference... 305 Overview... 305 Research Context... 306 One Variable at a Time... 306 Life Expectancy by Income Group... 307 Checking Assumptions... 307 Conducting an ANOVA... 310 Life Expectancy by GDP Per Capita... 312 Summing Up... 314 Chapter 18 Multiple Regression... 315 Overview... 316 The Multiple Regression Model... 316 Visualizing Multiple Regression... 316 Fitting a Model... 319 A More Complex Model... 322 Residuals Analysis in the Fit Model Platform... 324
x Collinearity... 325 An Example Free of Collinearity Problems... 326 An Example of Collinearity... 329 Dealing with Collinearity... 332 Evaluating Alternative Models... 333 Application... 335 Chapter 19 Categorical, Curvilinear, and Non-Linear Regression Models... 339 Overview... 339 Dichotomous Independent Variables... 340 Dichotomous Dependent Variable... 343 Whole Model Test... 346 Parameter Estimates... 346 Effect Likelihood Ratio Tests... 346 Curvilinear and Non-Linear Relationships... 347 Quadratic Models... 347 Logarithmic Models... 352 Application... 356 Chapter 20 Basic Forecasting Techniques... 361 Overview... 361 Detecting Patterns Over Time... 362 Smoothing Methods... 365 Simple Moving Average... 365 Simple Exponential Smoothing... 367 Linear Exponential Smoothing (Holt s Method)... 369 Winters Method... 370 Trend Analysis... 371 Autoregressive Models... 373 Application... 376 Chapter 21 Elements of Experimental Design... 381 Overview... 381 Why Experiment?... 382 Goals of Experimental Design... 382 Factors, Blocks, and Randomization... 383
xi Multi-Factor Experiments and Factorial Designs... 384 Blocking... 391 Fractional Designs... 393 Response Surface Designs... 397 Application... 400 Chapter 22 Quality Improvement... 407 Overview... 407 Processes and Variation... 408 Control Charts... 408 Charts for Individual Observations... 409 Charts for Means... 411 Charts for Proportions... 415 Capability Analysis... 418 Pareto Charts... 421 Application... 423 Appendix A Data Sources... 427 Overview... 427 Data Tables and Sources... 427 Appendix B Data Management... 431 Overview... 431 Entering Data from the Keyboard... 432 Moving Data from Excel Files into a JMP Data Table... 437 Importing an Excel File from JMP... 437 The JMP Add-in for Excel... 439 Importing Data Directly from a Website... 440 Combining Data from Two or More Sources... 441 Bibliography... 445 Index... 449 From Practical Data Analysis with JMP, Second Edition by Robert H. Carver. Copyright 2014, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, North Carolina, USA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.