The Integrated Warning Partnership: Opportunities for Improved Community-Level Benefits Dale Morris Oklahoma Climatological Survey April 18, 2006
My Personal Motivation Sunday Evening, September 5, 1992
1996 to Present: Public Safety Outreach, Service, and Support Last Mile Services Informed Users Armed with Modern Data Make Good (Remarkable!) Decisions
Uninformed Users Make Bad Decisions Finding 8c: Even with automated dissemination of forecast and warning information and excellent NWR coverage of the Baltimore area, short-term forecasts of 45 mph gusts, and a Special Marine Warning were not available to mariners before winds exceeded 45 mph in the harbor. A Small Craft Advisory had been in effect since the previous day. Finding 9: Rebroadcast of NWS marine forecast and warning information via local U.S. Coast Guard radio can take up to an hour. Thunderstorm in harbor 40-55 mph wind gusts Water taxi capsized 25 passengers/5 deaths Recommendation 9: Baltimore-Washington WFO staff should work with local Coast Guard officials to develop techniques to improve timely delivery of marine advisory and warning information on USCG radio in the Baltimore Harbor area. What about providing radar data and requisite training to Coast Guard and boat operators???
The Integrated Warning Team National Weather Service Broadcast Media Goal: Consistent Message to Public Public Safety, Emergency Management, Local Officials Partnerships: Public/Private Federal/State/Local Integrated Warning System (Doswell, Moller and Brooks, WAF 1999)
The Integrated Warning Team
Team Players: Characteristics of EM Community in Oklahoma Weak budgetary support for EM compared to fire and law enforcement Varied educational levels few (if any) with degrees in EM wear multiple hats Significant attrition rates Good-ol -boy politics Independent municipal, county, tribal, and state jurisdictions Variable warning systems, plans, and public education one size does not fit all one EM was fired for following his plan! misinterpretation of subsequent siren blasts as all-clear Weather-savvy compared to other states? Personal Observations: OK EM community only recently surveyed formally (CASA)
How Consistent is Our Message? Warning bug not on-screen during live wall to wall coverage. Inconsistency in presentation and colors.
Geography Specification in Warnings: Five Different Methods THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BLAINE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA * UNTIL 1245 AM CDT * AT 1201 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE LEADING EDGE OF A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THOMAS TO WEATHERFORD TO 10 MILES WEST OF ALFALFA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ALBERT...BINGER...BRIDGEPORT... CALUMET...COGAR...EAKLY...FORT COBB RESERVOIR...GEARY... GRACEMONT...GREENFIELD...HINTON...HITCHCOCK...HYDRO...LOOKEBA AND WATONGA THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 87 AND 115. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WINDS OF 65 MPH ARE LIKELY. PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO HIGH WINDS AND MAY BE OVERTURNED. MOVE TO A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... JOHNSON COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS LOGAN COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS * UNTIL 630 AM CDT * AT 546 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF HUNT TO 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHISMVILLE... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. * SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR... RATCLIFF AROUND 555 AM CDT HARTMAN AROUND 600 AM CDT PARIS AROUND 605 AM CDT SUBIACO...SCRANTON...CLARKSVILLE...BOONEVILLE AR LAMAR...MAGAZINE AROUND 615 AM CDT KNOXVILLE AROUND 620 AM CDT LAT...LON 3581 9865 3552 9864 3506 9860 3523 9808 3570 9813 3610 9826
From Local Community Perspectives 1. El Reno: main focus of media image, in county outline, but not in polygon and not mentioned in warning. 2. Watonga: in polygon and specifically mentioned in NWS warning, but not focus of media warning. 3. Okeene: in county warning, not in polygon, not shown in media image, probably no threat. 3 2 1 * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BLAINE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ALBERT...BINGER...BRIDGEPORT... CALUMET...COGAR...EAKLY...FORT COBB RESERVOIR...GEARY... GRACEMONT...GREENFIELD...HINTON...HITCHCOCK...HYDRO...LOOKEBA AND WATONGA
How To Warn A Mobile Population? Many deaths (17 in KC and 40+ in WF) were car-related. The Wichita Falls tornado struck in rushhour with traffic grid-lock Today s population much more mobile Travelers may not be aware of their location on a county map Commercial radio not dependable for weather coverage designed for aural users - Automated stations - OKC radio stations simulcast TV NWR reception not good in many areas 1977: Kansas City Flash Flood 1979: Wichita Falls Tornado Opportunity: Develop an alarm system/device that uses NWR, GPS and/or cell-phone technology that utilizes the device s location and polygon warnings in concert with satellite radio technology