CONTINUITY AND CHANGE IN TOURISM DR. GEOFFREY WALL DISTINGUISHED PROFESSOR EMERITUS DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT UNIVERSITY OF WATERLOO WATERLOO, ONTARIO N2L 5X4, CANADA Email: gwall@uwaterloo.ca 10th UNWTO/PATA FORUM TOURISM TRENDS AND OUTLOOK GUILIN, CHINA, 20-22 OCTOBER 2016
PERSONAL EXPERIENCES OF CHANGE LIVED IN SOUTHEAST ENGLAND NO CAR, NO PHONE, TV (TWO CHANNELS) COMPUTER PHD - MAINFRAME RUN BY CARDS IBM XT CAN$6,000 LOCAL TOURISM ANNUAL HOLIDAYS LONDON DOVER ROAD (ROMAN RD, A1, M2) COASTAL RESORTS AND INTERNATIONAL COMPETITION RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINA
TEMPORAL CHANGE PAST EVOLUTION OF TOURISM EVOLUTION OF TOURISM STUDIES / RESEARCH PRESENT DAILY AND WEEKLY CHANGES SEASONALITY CYCLES AND TRENDS FUTURE SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM WEATHER AND CLIMATE
TYPES OF CHANGE EVOLUTIONARY CONTINUOUS, GRADUAL MORE OF THE SAME REVOLUTIONARY SUDDEN, DISLOCATING NOVEL SITUATIONS BOTH OCCURRING FORMER EASIER TO DEAL WITH THAN LATTER SPEED AND SCALE OF CHANGE MAKES PLANNING DIFFICULT
REASONS FOR INTEREST IN THE PAST CURIOSITY HISTORY VERSUS EVOLUTION ESSENTIAL FOR UNDERSTAND PRESENT (AND FUTURE)? NEEDS AND DESIRES ACTIVITIES LANDSCAPES PROCESSES PLACE PRESENT PROBLEMS AND SOLUTIONS IN PERSPECTIVE (FUTURE OPTIONS DEPEND ON PAST DECISIONS) HEIGHTEN SENSE OF PLACE HERITAGE AND INTERPRETATION CORRECTIVE TO STATEMENTS CONCERNING RAPIDITY OF CHANGE
PAST AS GUIDE TO FUTURE HOW GOOD A GUIDE? PROJECTION (SHORT-TERM SUCCESSES) PREDICTION (LONG-TERM CHALLENGES) ARE THERE ALTERNATIVES? DELPHI, SCENARIOS, VISIONING etc. NOTE: MODELS CAN STILL BE USEFUL EVEN IF SPECIFIC OUTPUTS ULTIMATELY NEGATED
IMPORTANT THEMES HEALTH RELIGION CONTINUITY versus CHANGE (Traditio versus Fashio) TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE TRANSPORT AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES RECREATION AND TOURISM TECHNOLOGIES OTHER ACTIVITIES Coflicts amog uses ad users SOCIO-ECONOMIC INFLUENCES SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES MASS FOLLOWS CLASS PROMINENT INDIVIDUALS SOCIAL CONTROL CULTURAL TRANSFER ad HISTORY OF IDEAS LANDSCAPE CHANGE AND LANDSCAPE EVOLUTION WEATHER AND CLIMATE
WEATHER AND CLIMATE No attempt to defie terms No attempt to discuss attributes of climate chage How much, how fast, what parameters, what locatios? Great sigificace! Evidece climate chage is occurrig: eed to cosider implicatios Weather ad climate variable o multiple time ad spatial scales with far-reachig implicatios for tourism
UNCERTAINTY AND RISK Ucertaity v. risk What risks do tourism busiess face from climate chage ad variability? What ca be doe to reduce risks? Are there opportuities? Ucertaities of huma systems greater tha physical systems Climate chage oly oe factor i icreasigly turbulet eviromet (NOT most importat for all scales ad activities) May forms of global chage (climate just oe) Most critical where forms of global chage superimposed
VULNERABILITY OF TOURISM TO CLIMATE CHANGE Vulerability = extet to which a system (tourism) may be (adversely) affected, disrupted or displaced by a exteral force (climate) Depeds o: Distributio ad importace of tourism i.e. locatios whose ecoomies highly depedet o tourism at greatest risk Characteristics of climate chage: extreme evets - magitude, frequecy, duratio Tourism both widely distributed ad highly cocetrated cities, coasts, moutais Cities resiliet diversified ecoomy Coasts ad moutais (high eergy eviromets) more vulerable Log-haul destiatios more vulerable (higher risk) tha those depedig o local markets
MITIGATION ad ADAPTATION MITIGATION (LIMITATION) Cut greehouse gases reduce climate chage ADAPTATION Climate chage likely take steps to restrict adverse impacts ad take advatage of opportuities Early reluctace to cosider adaptatio see as weakeig case for limitatio Adaptatio ow commoly regarded as ecessary Complemetary rather tha competitive strategies Tourism could be vulerable to both climate chage ad limitatio strategies
MITIGATION Tourism as geerator of greehouse gases? Role of travel phase? Is tourism a discretioary activity? For tourists? For busiesses ad resort commuities? Policies to curb travel have major implicatios for destiatios Optios greater for jourey to work compared to jourey to play Role of mitigatio strategies for tourism?
ADAPTATION Ivolves adjustmets to social ad ecoomic activities to reduce vulerability (risk) Both atural ad huma systems already adapted to a ukow extet to variability i curret climate Adaptatios most likely i situatios of itermediate risk Chages i magitude ad frequecy of extreme evets critical
STAKEHOLDERS ADAPTABILITY 1. TOURISTS Mobile Exercise choice Substitute activity, locatio, timig Niche markets more at risk High potetial to adapt 2. BUSINESSES Lack of mobility fixed capital Flexibility of participats a problem Ability to adapt varies Seasoality, frequecy of good/bad seasos Both wiers ad losers 3. INSTITUTIONS High potetial but much coservatism SUMMARY All but most specialized tourists will adapt but their flexibility may exacerbate challeges of mobile operators who rely o short seasos
RESEARCH NEEDS Both tourism / recreatio data rich but iformatio poor Difficult to combie available recreatio ad climate iformatio Better GCM iformatio but by itself isufficiet Curret climate data could be better used Viability of curret ivestmets? Uderstadig of curret sesitivities? Weather costig Relative importace of climate ad other factors? Substitutability (activity, locatio, timig) Parks ad protected areas desigatio, use, maagemet etc. Others? Diversificatio strategies Extreme evets Isurace Lad use zoig.
QUESTIONS AND IMPLICATIONS Are some types of tourism more vulerable tha others? Is tourism more or less vulerable tha other sectors? Ca tourism adapt more or less easily tha other sectors? Role of comparative studies? Appropriate mix of limitatio ad adaptatio strategies? Policy implicatios? Coasts sigificace for tourism ad recreatio ad importace of chagig water levels Moutais ski areas upgrade sow-makig ad diversify (makes sese ow) Summer activities i mid ad high latitudes exteded seasos if water available ad coastal processes ot disrupted Ecological implicatios?
CONCLUDING COMMENTS EVOLUTIONARY AND REVOLUTIONARY CHANGE RELEVANCE OF PAST TO PRESENT AND FUTURE PERSISTENT THEMES IN TEMPRAL CHANGE IN TOURISM WEATHER AND CLIMATE MANAGING CHANGE