Activities of RSMC, New Delhi B.K.BANDYOPADHYAY

Activities of RSMC, New Delhi B.K.BANDYOPADHYAY

Layout Functions of RSMC, New Delhi Climatology of NIO Observational network Telecommunication network Cyclone monitoring Cyclone forecasting Bulletins/Advisories New Initiatives Future Prospects System during 2008 Winds compared with JTWC

Functions of RSMC - New Delhi Monitoring Cyclonic Disturbances over the North Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) Issue of Tropical weather outlook/ Cyclone Advisories to the Panel Countries. Issue of Tropical Cyclone Advisories for Aviation as per the guidelines of ICAO Collection, processing and archival of all data pertaining to cyclonic disturbances and preparation of best track data over the north Indian Ocean, RSMC, New Delhi also exchanges the same data with WMO/ESCAP Panel member countries.

Functions of RSMC - New Delhi Preparation of Annual Review, RSMC reports and updating of Cyclone operational cyclone operational plan Running Numerical Models for Cyclone Track prediction (QLM) and Storm Surge prediction models (IIT Delhi) Implementation of Regional Cyclone Operation Plan of WMO/ESCAP Panel Research on Storm Surge, Track & Intensity Prediction Techniques

WMO /ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones Established in 1973 Members Bangladesh India (RSMC tropical cyclones New-Delhi) Maldives Myanmar Oman Pakistan Sri Lanka Thailand

Special features of the North Indian Ocean Bay of Bengal is a vast warm pool adjoining the warm pool of the western North Pacific. Several of the precursors of the Bay of Bengal cyclones emerge from the neighbouring Pacific basin as remnant of typhoons and re-intensify over the Bay after passing over rather narrow strip of SE Asian countries The ocean currents in the Bay of Bengal are quite complex. The bathymetry of this coast is also very complex due to a number of rivers, deltaic regions and orography

Frequency of Cyclonic disturbances over north Indian Ocean during 1891-2007 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 151 124 109 113 92 83 62 49 57 35 10 6 2 JAN 311 232 91317 FEB MAR APR Depression 24 43 37 29 20 8 51 34 32 20 27 25 3 MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEP Cyclonic Storms 59 OCT NOV DEC Severe cyclonic storms 68% of disturbances over Bay of Bengal have landfall over east coast 30% of disturbances over Arabian Sea have landfall over west coast of India.

Out of 80 forming over the globe, five form over north Indian Ocean Ratio of TCs between Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea 4:1 Year to year variation - Quite large

SOME FACTS ABOUT CYCLONES OF NORTH INDIAN SEAS Minimum No. of cyclones in a year - One (1949) Maximum No. of cyclones in a year Ten (1893,1926,1930,1976) Out of total disturbances - 35% intensify to Cyclones 16 % intensify to SCS 7% intensify to VSCS Peak activity November followed by May Most vulnerable coast in the West Coast - South Gujarat coast. Most vulnerable coast in the East Coast - West Bengal followed by Krishna & Nellore districts of AP. Life period of a Tropical Cyclone is 5-6 days. It will have hurricane intensity for 2-4 days as against 6 days of global average.

Cont d Life period of the longest lived Tropical Cyclone in Indian seas is 14 days (2-15th Nov, 1886 & 16-29th Nov, 1964). Size of a Tropical Cyclone over Indian seas is 50-100 km radius to 2000 km radius 3º to 5º (300 600km). Categorisation of Tropical Cyclones: Speed : 10-14kmph (Slow), 15-25kmph (Moderate) and >25 kmph (Fast)

Variation of Cyclonic disturbances over Bay of Bengal ( Five years runnig Average) during 1891-2000 8 F re q u e n c y 6 4 2 0 1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Year y = -0.0007x + 4.9601 Cyclonic Disturbances including Depressions and monsoon systems have not registered any long term trend even till recent times indicating that the genesis factor over the Indian Seas may not have undergone major changes

Death in Tropical Cyclones YEAR 1970 1737 1886 1923 1876 1897 1991 2008 1833 1864 1822 1780 1965 1999 1963 1961 1985 1971 1977 1966 1900 1960 1960 1972 COUNTRIES Bangladesh India China Japan Bangladesh Bangladesh Bangladesh Myanmar India India Bangladesh Antilles(West Indies) Bangladesh India Bangladesh Bangladesh Bangladesh India India Cuba USA Bangladesh Japan India DEATHS 500,000 300,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 175,000 140,000 138,000 50,000 50,000 40,000 22,000 19,279 10,000 11,520 11,466 11,069 10,000 10,000 7,196 6,000 5,149 5,000 5,000

RBSN Bangladesh India Maldives Myanmar Pakistan Sri lanka Thailand 35 75 4 27 47 10 35

TELECOMMUNICATION NETWORK The automated centre of Regional Telecommunication Hub (RTH), New Delhi Principal Meteorological Telecommunication Centres in South Asia zone of responsibility extends roughly from Saudi Arabia in the west to Thailand in the East and the adjoining sea areas it maintains maintainstelecommunication Circuits with Moscow, Tokyo, Cairo, Jeddah, Bangkok, Colombo, Dhaka, Tehran, Karachi, Male, Yangon and Kathmandu. The circuit with Moscow and Beijing operates on 128 kbps speed, Dhaka, Pakistan, Jeddah, Cairo operates on 64 kbps, Melbourne, Male, Srilanka, Yangoon operates through Internet.

Telecommunication network

Cyclone Monitoring Recently, IMD has acquired the monitoring and prediction capabilities for these high impact weather events due to i. Installation of DWR ii. Augmentation of surface data due to AWS network iii. Availability of hourly AWS data iv. Increase in satellite derived products v. Installation and operationalisation of WRF model

DWR at VSK

Met. Satellites of special relavance to TC analysis over NIO NOAA METEOSAT TRMM VIS and IR images from polar orbiting satellites have been in use in IMD since 1960s for TC analysis Dvorak s technique for intensity classification is used for north Indian Ocean since 1974. INSAT and Kalpana

Location of Centre: (a) Synoptic position: (b) Satellite: (1) INSAT/METSAT position (2) NOAA SSD: (c) Radar position : (d) Centre determined by other warning centres (e) Finally agreed official position (f) Confidence

Intensity estimation: (a) Satellite: (1)INSAT/METSAT (2)Intensity from NOAA SSD: (b) Radar (c) Synoptic analysis (d) Model analysis (e) Intensity determined by other warning centres (e) Finally agreed official intensity (f) Confidence

TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECASTING Track forecasting : i) Methods based on climatology (Analogs) ii) Methods based on Persistence & Climatology iii) Synoptic Techniques Empirical Techniques iv) Satellite Techniques v) Statistical Techniques (Chaos theory and Generic Algorithm method developed by SAC, Ahmedabad) vi) Analogue Techniques vii) NWP Models viii) Operational (Consensus) forecast

TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY FORECASTING Subjective techniques like Climatology & Synoptic and Satellite (Dvorak) techniques are used. Dynamical statistical model NWP models have limitations

Existing NWP models for cyclone forecasting Models run in IMD/NCMRWF Global model of NCMRWF (T254 and T80) Regional Model (LAM and QLM) Meso-scale Model (MM5 and WRF) Model support from other Institutes IIT Delhi IAF Andhra University

Quasi-Lagrangian Model (QLM) A multilevel fine-mesh primitive equation model Resolution of 40 km and 16 sigma levels Merging of an idealized vortex into the initial Imposition of a steering current over the vortex area with the use of a dipole. The initial fields and lateral boundary conditions are derived based on global T254 forecasts ( NCMRWF, India). Run twice a day based on 00 UTC and 12 UTC initial conditions to provide 6 hourly track forecasts valid up to 72 hours.

Meso-scale Model MM-5 Daily once based on 00 UTC initial conditions for forecast upto 72 hours. Resolution 45 km with 23 sigma levels. Area between lat. 25.0o S to 45.0o N and long. 30o E to 120.0o E. NCEP analysis and six hourly forecasts are used as initial and boundary conditions During cyclone situations, the model is run by including Holland vortex scheme

Existing NWP models for cyclone forecasting International models used in IMD ECMWF UKMO JMA COLA

Bulletins issued by RSMC, New Delhi Tropical weather outlook : Once a day based on 0300 UTC observation Special tropical Weather Outlook : Twice a day based on 0300 and 1200 UTC observation during depression stage Tropical Cyclone Advisories : Every three hourly during cyclone period Issue of Tropical Cyclone Advisories for Aviation as per the guidelines of ICAO every six hourly during cyclone period

Tropical weather outlook The tropical weather outlook is prepared once daily. It is being transmitted at 06 UTC every day. The outlook includes only the general information like convection, position of ridge, formation of low pressure area etc An additional outlook is transmitted again over the GTS at 1700 UTC when a depression is located and expected to intensify into a cyclonic storm. When a system reaches the cyclonic storm stage (wind speed 34 kt), RSMC tropical cyclones, New Delhi in addition, issues cyclonic storm advisories.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY When a system reaches the cyclonic storm stage, or is shortly expected to reach that intensity, RSMC tropical cyclones, New Delhi issues tropical cyclone advisories. Advisories are issued at 00, 03, 06, 09, 12, 15, 18 and 21 UTC. Tropical cyclone advisories contains information on the identification name, the present location, intensity and movement (present and past twelve hours) of the storm, and its forecast position, movement, intensity, maximum average surface wind, highest gust speed (upto 72 hrs) and sea conditions (in qualitative terms) and storm surge guidance. Important information obtained from radar observations and any relevant ship reports from the affected areas are repeated at the end of the advisory. Advisory contains physical reasoning on prognosis and diagnosis.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DEMS RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 14-04-2009 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1000 UTC OF 14 APRIL, 2009 BASED ON 0900 UTC OF 14 APRIL, 2009 (.) THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHEAST & ADJOINING CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL CONCENTRATED INTO A DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY, 14TH APRIL 2009 NEAR LAT. 12.5 DEG N AND LONG. 88.0 DEG E, ABOUT 550 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR (43330), 700 KM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM (43185) AND ABOUT 800 KM SOUTHWEST OF PATHEIN (48094) (MYANMAR). SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES GRADUAL ORGANISATION OF CONVECTION DURING PAST TWELVE HOURS. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER AREA BETWEEN LAT. 7.0 DEG N AND 16.0 DEG N AND LONG. 83.0 DEG. E AND 91.0 DEG. E. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -60 DEG C. (CONTD)

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK (contd) SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1000 HPA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS AROUND 10 KNOTS. 24 HOURS SHEAR TENDENCY IS NEGTIVE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 150N. SEA SURFACE TEMPRATURES ARE FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS IT IS 0.50 TO 1.00 C ABOVE NORMAL. CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. (M. MOHAPATRA) DIRECTOR TOO: 141000 HRS IST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY FROM : RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI TO : STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA ( BANGLADESH ) STORM WARNING CENTRE, YANGAON (MYANMAR) STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND) STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA) STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN) METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES) OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH) TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI TROPCAL STORM, BIJLI ADVISORY NO. ONE ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF 15TH APRIL 2009 BASED ON 1200 UTC CHARTS OF 15TH APRIL 2009. THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL & ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS, FURTHER INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM, BIJLI AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 15TH APRIL 2009 NEAR LAT. 15.00 N AND LONG. 86.50 E, ABOUT 470 KM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, 750 KM NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR AND 900 KM SOUTHWEST OF PATHEIN (MYANMAR). THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION FOR SOME MORE TIME. (CONTD)

BASED ON THE LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES, THE ESTIMATED FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW: DATE/TIME(UTC) POSITION (LAT. 0N/LONG. 0E) SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED (KMPH) 15.04.2009/1200 15.0/86.5 65-75 GUSTING TO 85 16.04.2009/0000 16.5/86.0 70-80 GUSTING TO 90 16.04.2009/1200 17.5/86.0 80-90 GUSTING TO 100 17.04.2009/0000 18.5/86.5 90-100 GUSTING TO 110 17.04.2009/1200 20.0/87.5 100-110 GUSTING TO 120 18.04.2009/0000 21.0/89.0 100-110 GUSTING TO 120 18.04.2009/1200 22.0/91.0 100-110 GUSTING TO 120 SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 40 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS VERY ROUGH TO HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 996 HPA. (CONTD)

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CURVED BAND PATTERN OF THE SYSTEM. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LAT. 13.00 N TO 19.00 N AND WEST OF LONGITUDE 900 E. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -600C. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T2.5 RPT T2.5. THE FORECAST INTENSITY DURING NEXT 24 HOURS IS T 3.0 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS. 24 HOURS SHEAR TENDENCY IS NEGATIVE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM LIES CLOSE TO SOUTH OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 170N. CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION FOR SOME MORE TIME.

Storm surge guidance based on IIT Delhi model for WMO/ESCAP panel countries: STORM SURGE WITH HEIGHT OF ABOUT 2-3 METRES ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS LIKELY OVER BANGLADESH COAST NERA LANDFALL POINT AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL.

FROM: TROPICAL CYCLONE AVIATION CENTRE (TCAC), NEW DELHI TO : INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS VIZ MUSCAT, KARACHI, ISLAMABAD, COLOMBO, YANGOON, DHAKA, SINGAPORE, KOLKATA, CHENNAI, MUMBAI, NEW DELHI. DTG : TCAC: TC: NR: PSN: MOV: C: Max Wind: FCST PSN +06Hrs: Max Wind + 06hrs: FCST PSN +12Hrs: Max Wind + 12hrs: FCST PSN +18Hrs: Max Wind + 18hrs: FCST PSN +24Hrs: Max Wind + 24hrs: NEXT MSG: 20090415/1200Z NEW DELHI BIJLI 01 N1500 E08630 NNW12KT 996HPA 40KT GUSTING TO 50KT 151800 N 1600 E08600 40KT GUSTING TO 50KT 160000 N 1630 E08600 45KT GUSTING TO 55KT 160600 N 1700 E 08600 45KT GUSTING TO 55KT 161200 N 1730 E 08600 45KT GUSTING TO 55KT 20090415/1800Z

New Initiatives in Cyclone Forecasting Timeliness of cyclone warnings All the bulletins/warnings is being issued within 2 hours of observations, which is an improvement in lead time available to disaster management agencies. Change in Format of Cyclone Warning Bulletin The format of bulletins has been changed with inclusion of forecast track and intensity at +6, +12, +18, +24, +36, +48, +60 and +72 hours. The cyclone warning bulletins containing the above information is being issued for the first time in the history of IMD since December 2008. The Sample copies of bulletins issued during AILA are enclosed (Appendix A).

Contd Inclusion of diagnosis and prognosis. The physical reasoning describing the diagnosis and prognosis of cyclonic disturbances over the north Indian Ocean is being mentioned in the RSMC bulletin. Prediction of Storm surge IIT Delhi Storm surge prediction model has been introduced operationally since 2002. RSMC, New Delhi is issuing storm surge guidance in its advisory bulletin to member countries with effect from 2009. Introduction of new cyclone forecasting system Improvement in forecast and research with respect to cyclones are likely with upgradation of forecasting activity through Modernisation of Indian Meteorological Observational Systems and Applications (MIMOSA)/ VARSAMANA Project.

Mean Forecast Error The mean forecast errors of RSMC, New Delhi based on data of last five years are given below. 12 hrs track forecast error 24 hrs track forecast error 87 km 139 km 12 hrs landfall point forecast error 24 hrs landfall point forecast error 72 km 81 km 12 hrs landfall time forecast error 24 hrs landfall time forecast error 24 hrs Intensity forecast error classification) 4 hrs 4 hrs T 0.5 (as per Dvorak

Upgradation of cyclone page of IMD website The present cyclone page includes following: Static information Frequently asked questions (FAQ ) Terminology Report of Cyclone disturbances over north India Ocean during 2008. Reports on latest Cyclone. TCP-21 2008 edition Dynamic information Bulletin for Indian Coast RSMC Bulletin Observed and forecast track QLM Track Satellite imagery Ocean state forecast

Cyclone Electronic Atlas 12 hourly data in cyclone electronic Atlas during 1891-2008 has been published. Incorporates 3 Basins viz. Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea and Land (India & Neighbouring countries) and 16 pre defined Coastal belts Can be installed in a personal desktop computer with Windows The eatlas generates three different types of output viz: Display of Tracks of C&Ds Statistical data of C&Ds in map form Tables / Bar diagrams Tracks can be saved and printed

Statistical Dynamical model for Cyclone genesis and intensity Prediction A statistical-dynamical model has been implemented for real time forecasting of cyclone genesis and intensity. The approach consists of (a) Analysis of Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP) and (b) 12 hourly Intensity Prediction for forecasts up to 72 hours. The model parameters are calibrated based on model analysis fields of past cyclones. For the real-time forecasting, model parameters are derived based on the forecast fields of MM5 model. The method is found to be promising for the operational use.

Research Forecasting Manual on Cyclone Implementation of WRF Model for cyclone prediction Introduction of MME technique for track prediction Storm surge prediction Cyclone prone districts of India Seasonal prediction of cyclonic disturbances over the north Indian Ocean Modulation of genesis and intensity of cyclonic disturbances by Madden Julian Oscillation Meteorological Monographs on characteristics of specific cyclones Individual research papers published in reviewed journals and proceedings of seminar/symposium Damage Potential

Publications 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Annual Report on Cyclonic Disturbances over the North Indian Ocean Annual cyclone review report Input for Panel News published by TSU, Pakistan Publication of best track digital data Meteorological Monographs Preliminary reports on Cyclones Cyclones over the north Indian Ocean have been individually documented and made available to public and research communities with effect from cyclone, Nargis

Training On cyclone warning to the WMO sponsored forecasters of various WMO/ESCAP Panel member countries since 2005 Conducts lecture series on cyclone warning during April and September, 2008 every year as a part of pre-cyclone exercise. A special lecture series was conducted during October 2008 for the benefit of the forecasters and researchers in HQ. Refresher courses are also conducted for the cyclone forecasters in regular intervals, especially for interpretation of satellite, radar and NWP products. A new forecasting system is being introduced in IMD with the collaboration of Meteo France International. The cyclone forecasters have undergone training this year in France on cyclone forecasting.

Role of RSMC New Delhi for storm surge prediction over the WMO/ESCAP Panel region. Till 2008, RSMC, New Delhi was issuing storm surge prediction for Indian coast only. Based on the recommendations of WMO Expert Team to Myanmar after Nargis and subsequent recommendation of WMO TCP, it has been decided to issue storm surge guidance to member countries based on IITD model. It has been implemented since 2009 with effect from cyclone, Bijli in April 2009.

Role of RSMC New Delhi for storm surge prediction over the WMO/ESCAP Panel region. It has further been decided that the IITD model will be installed in IMD, New Delhi and will be operationally run by IMD to issue storm surge guidance on real time basis to all the member countries

WMO Fact Finding Mission to Myanmar Yangoon,9-13 February 2009 Comprising of representatives and experts in tropical cyclone and storm surge forecasting and warning from WMO, ESCAP, India, Pakistan, Thailand familiarization of DMH staff and partners with WMO/ESCAP activities and potential opportunities for capacity development. The following presentations were made by the Indian expert during the Mission. Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (Tropical Cyclone), New Delhi Review of cyclone Nargis Monitoring/tracking and advisory/warning services : RSMC New Delhi Regional services Standard operation procedure for Cyclone Warning Services In India Modernisation of forecasting system and disaster management Cyclone warning system. Cyclone e-atlas developed by IMD was installed and explained its usefulness.

Meteorological Data Dissemination IMD transmits processed imagery, meteorological and facsimile weather facility Through INSAT to the neighbouring countries The bulletins providing description of the cloud organization and coverage as advisory to forecasting offices every synoptic hour. During cyclones these bulletins are sent every hour.

Future prospects Modernisation programme of IMD 1. Forecasting and PWS 2. Satellite products 3. Doppler Weather Radars 4. Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) 5. Automatic Rain gauges (ARG) 6. Airport Modernization 7. Real Time Communication 8. High power computing system 9. Location specific forecast and now-casting

Numerical Models (2009-2010) Global Model : T254/L64 (Resolution 65 km) upto 10 days for medium range forecast (MRF) and for regional model boundary conditions (Daily two runs). Meso-scale nested model for Regional domain at 6 hourly interval Local area nested model at Regional Centres at Res. 15/5 km Cyclone Model for Track Prediction at Res. 10 kms Storm Surge Model.

FORECAST DEMONSTRATION PROJECT ON LANDFALLING CYCLONES OBJECTIVE : COLLECT OBSERVATIONS IN THE TC CORE ENVIRONMENT USING RESEARCH AIRCRAFT AND UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLE (UAV). DEMONSTRATE THE USE OF THE DROP SOUNDINGS AND UAV DATA IN PROVIDING IMPROVED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR GENESIS, TRACK AND INTENSITY PREDICTION OF THE BAY OF BENGAL TROPICAL CYCLONE PROJECT SCHEDULE : PRE-PILOT PHASE : 15 OCT - 30 NOV 2008 PILOT PHASE : 15 OCT - 30 NOV 2009-10 Final PHASE : 15 OCT - 30 NOV 2011-12 REGION OF STUDY : BAY OF BENGAL

Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) on landfalling Tropical Cyclones over the Bay of Bengal (Pre-Pilot phase 2008) Pre-pilot phase (15 Oct-30 Nov 2008) : Several national institutions participated for joint communicational & NWP activities. observational, Three Intense Observation Periods(IOP) were conducted association with the cyclones, Rashmi, Khai Muk and Nisha. in We have already requested all the member countries to participate in the programme. All the countries may participate in the programme

Proposed joint initiatives with IITD Modeling of Coastal area inundation due to cyclone Prediction of total water level (TWL) More specific prediction of storm surge due to cyclone. At present, the forecast is given for minimum unit area of district. Storm surge modeling for deltaic regions like, Sunderbans, Mahanadi delta and Cauvery delta. Preparation of Nomograms based on IITD model for different coastal belts of WMO/ESCAP region Probable maximum storm surge for different coastal belts of WMO/ESCAP region

Conclusion RSMC, New Delhi is well equipped for monitoring and prediction of cyclonic disturbances over the north Indian Ocean and storm surges over the WMO/ESCAP panel region. Improvement in accuracy of meteorological inputs has resulted in more accurate prediction of storm surge. With the completion of ongoing modernization programme, the error is likely to reduce by about 10-15 % in next 2 years. It will further enable better storm surge prediction Further refinement of the storm surge model is essential especially for prediction of coastal area inundation and total water level and location specific storm surge IMD is willing to collaborate with IITD to achieve the objectives laid out by the workshop

Systems during 2008 NARGIS (27 April 3 May 2008) (Name proposed by Pakistan) RASHAMI(25-27 October 2008) (Name proposed by Sri Lanka) KHAI- MUK (13-16 November 2008) (Name proposed by Thailand) NISHA (25-27 November 2008) (Name proposed by Bangladesh)

Tracks of the cyclones during 2008

Accuracy and timeliness of the warnings

NARGIS

Very severe cyclonic storm NARGIS over the Bay of Bengal during 27 April to 3 May, 2008 The system continued to intensify even after the recurvature. The system moved almost in easterly direction from 0600 UTC of 1st May till 1500 UTC of 2nd May. The system maintained the intensity of very severe cyclonic storm for about 12 hrs after the landfall. It was the most devasting cyclone over the Bay of Bengal after Bangladesh cyclone of 1991 in term of loss of life and property as more than 1,38,000 people died due to this cyclone.

3004/03 UTC 0205/03 UTC 0105/03 UTC 0205/10 UTC

Track prediction by NWP models based on 30th April observations

24 HOURS TRACK F/C ERROR OF NARGIS BASED ON 2904/00 UTC 300 240 250 200 150 164 123 110 104 103 100 54 25 50 0 IMD QLM ECMWF UKMO MM5 WRF(IMD) CLIPER MOG 24 HOURS TRACK F/C ERROR OF NARGIS BASED ON 3004/00 UTC 500 430 380 400 300 255 220 200 100 132 120 55 129 54 G M O LI PE R C ) IM D F( W R M M 5 M O K U T2 54 F M W EC LM Q IM D 0

24 HOURS LANDFALL F/C ERROR OF NARGIS 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 400 300 250 110 110 110 50 50 IMD QLM MM5 ECMWF UKMO WRF(IMD) MOG CLIPER 24 HOURS TIME ERROR OF NARGIS 15 12 9 10 5 5 2 1 0 IMD QLM ECMWF -5-10 UKMO -4-7 MM5-1 WRF(IMD) MOG CLIPER

Bulletins issued by RSMC, New Delhi during Nargis Tropical Weather Outlook 3 Tropical Cyclone Advisories 41 Tropical Cyclone Advisories for aviation use 19 The first tropical cyclone advisory indicating landfall over Myanmar coast was issued at 0600 UTC of 1ST May based on observations of 0300 UTC (about 36 hrs in advance). It was indicated in the bulletin that the system would cross Myanmar coast between lat 160 and 180 N around night of 2nd May 2008. On 2nd May morning, it was indicated that the system would cross Myanmar coast near 160N around evening of the same day.

Operational track, intensity and landfall forecast errors of NARGIS According to operational bulletin issued by Cyclone Warning Division/RSMC, New Delhi there is 64 Kms forecast average error in 12 hrs and 112 kms in 24 hrs. In 24 hrs predicted intensity forecast there is about T0.5 average error has noticed. Landfall error Point error Time error 12 hrs 55 kms 1 ½ hrs 24 hrs 110 kms 2 hrs 36 hrs 110 kms 3 ½ hrs

RASHMI(25-27 October 2008) 261200 UTC Cyclonic storm RASHMI crossed Bangladesh coast near long.89.5e about 50 kms west of Khepupara between 2200-2300 UTC of 26th Oct. 2008..

Cyclonic Storm RASHMI over the Bay of Bengal during 25-27 October, 2008 It caused loss of life and property in Bangladesh and northeastern states, due to heavy rainfall and gale/squally winds The system intensified with increase in sustained wind speed reaching upto 45 knots just before the landfall. System rapidly weakened over land into a low pressure area (within 12 hrs) Three cyclonic storm (one each during 1905, 1967, 1988) with genesis over the region between 15-200 or and 85-900 have crossed Bangladesh coast during the period 18912007. Storm surge of 6 feet has been reported at the time of landfall

Forecast tracks of NWP models based on 0000 UTC of 25th October 2008

Track predictions by WRF model (IITD)

INITIAL CONDITION: 24 OCT 08 ACTUAL LANDFALL : 21.8 N / 89.5 E at 2230 UTC / 26 OCT 08 GFS DATA T254 DATA Land Fall Error: 107.42km (W) / 1h30m (E) Land Fall Error: 121.60km (W) / 1h30m (D)

INITIAL CONDITION: 25 OCT 08 ACTUAL LANDFALL : 21.8 N / 89.5 E at 2230 UTC / 26 OCT 08 GFS DATA T254 DATA Land Fall Error: 24.60km (E) / 5h30m(E) Land Fall Error: 33.53km (E) / 1h30m (D)

INITIAL CONDITION: 26 OCT 08 ACTUAL LANDFALL : 21.8 N / 89.5 E at 2230 UTC / 26 OCT 08 GFS DATA T254 DATA Land Fall Error: 131.20km(W) / 4h30m(E) Land Fall Error: 130.60km(E) / 1h30m

24 HOURS LANDFALL F/C ERROR OF RASHMI 325 350 300 250 200 151 150 100 50 110 100 100 21 66 68 55 10 0 0 IMD QLM ECMWF T254 UKMO MM5 GFS JMA CLIPER IAF IIT 24 HOURS TIME ERROR OF RASHMI 6 4 2 0-2 2 4 2 0 IMD -4-6 -8-10 -12 3 QLM -2 ECMWF T254 UKMO MM5-2 -6-10 GFS JMA -1 CLIPER IAF -1.5 IIT

Intensity forecast Forecast for intensification into a cyclonic storm was first issued at :260300 UTC Actual time of intensification into cyclonic storm :261200 UTC Forecast of maximum intensity :T3.0 Base time for issue of maximum intensity : 261200 UTC Forecast wind speed at the time of landfall :40-50ktsGust 60kts along and off Bangladesh coast Base time for issue of maximum wind :261200 UTC Qualitatively, the intensification of the system was predicted from :250300UTC.

Warnings/advisories issued by RSMC, New Delhi International bulletins : Special Ttropical Weather Outlook 5 RSMC Bulletin for Panel Member countries 06 Tropical Cyclone Advisories Centre (TCAC) Bulletin 03 National bulletins : Cyclone warning for Indian coast- 14

KHAI- MUK (13-16 November 2008) Cyclonic storm, KHAIMUK crossed Andhra Pradesh coast close to the north of Kavali between 2200 and 2300 UTC of 15th Nov 2008 as deep depression Caused heavy to very heavy rainfall over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema

KHAI MUK 24 HOURS TRACK ERROR (KM) BASED ON 1511/00 UTC 300 250 234 246 194 200 150 150 100 80 57 50 85 65 0 IMD QLM ECMWF T254 MM5 CLIPER MOG IAF KHAIMUK LANDFALL F/C ERROR BASED ON 15/00 UTC 250 201 200 150 171 150 131 113 100 95 56 50 31 31 QLM ECMWF 0 IMD T254 MM5 CLIPER MOG IAF IIT

KHAIMUK TIME F/C ERROR BASED ON 15/00 UTC 15 12 10 6 5 2 1 1 1 QLM ECMWF T254 MM5 0-5 IMD -10-15 -12 CLIPER -3 MOG IAF -1.5 IIT

Warnings/advisories issued by RSMC, New Delhi International bulletins : Special Ttropical Weather Outlook 4 RSMC Bulletin for Panel Member countries 07 Tropical Cyclone Advisories Centre (TCAC) Bulletin 04 National bulletins : Cyclone warning for Indian coast- 21

Cyclonic storm NISHA Cyclonic storm NISHA over southwest Bay of Bengal moved very slowly and crossed Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast, close to the north of Karaikal between 0530 and 0630 hrs IST of 27th. Scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls occurred over Tamil Nadu & Puducherry. It led to flood over the districts in delta regions and neighbourhood

Salient features of cyclone, NISHA There was loss of 78 human lives and caused huge crop loss. The salient features of cyclone, NISHA are as follows (i) The cyclogenesis took place over the land region(north Srilanka). (ii) System remained quasi-stationary for about 24 hours very close to the coast causing exceptionally heavy rainfall.

long= lat= fc= endhour=eof DRAW error: Syntax is DRAW WXSYM sym x y NWP models predictions based on 0000 UTC of 25 Nov 2008 siz <color <thick> > Query Error: Syntax is QUERY W2XY Lon Lat DRAW error: Invalid LINE coordinate DRAW error: Syntax is DRAW WXSYM sym x y siz <color <thick> NWP models predictions based on 0000 UTC of 26 Nov 2008

NISHA LANDFALL F/C ERROR BASED ON 26/00 UTC 133 140 120 100 100 77 80 63 60 33 40 20 11 11 T254 UKMO 0 IMD QLM ECMWF MM5 IIT NISHA TIME ERROR BASED ON 26/00 UTC 15 10 10 6 6 MM5 IIT 5 0-5 IMD QLM -10-12 -15-20 -18.5 ECMWF -3 T254 UKMO -1

Forecast error of IMD km Landfall error (km) of NISHA 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 145 100 45 251200 260000 261200 Time(UTC) Time error (hr) of NISHA 18.5 20 hours 15 10 8 8 5 0 251200 260000 Time(UTC) 261200

Warnings/advisories issued by RSMC, New Delhi International bulletins : Special Ttropical Weather Outlook 3 RSMC Bulletin for Panel Member countries 07 Tropical Cyclone Advisories Centre (TCAC) Bulletin 04 National bulletins : Cyclone warning for Indian coast- 18

Bulletins Issued by Cyclone Warning Division during 2008 International Bulletins: Tropical weather outlook : Special weather outlook : Tropical cyclone Advisories : Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centre (TCAC) International civil aviation : 320 36 74 29 National Bulletins: (i) Bulletins for Indian coast (ii) Bulletins issued by DGM : : 152 21

NARGIS Landfall error Point error Time error (i) 12 hrs landfall error 55 kms 1 ½ hrs (ii) 24 hrs landfall error 110 kms 2 hrs (iii) 36 hrs landfall error 110 kms 3 ½ hrs RASHMI Landfall error Point error Time error (i) 12 hrs landfall error 52 kms 2 hrs (ii) 24 hrs landfall error 21 kms 10 hrs KHAI MUK Landfall error Point error Time error (i) 12 hrs landfall error 20 kms 2 hrs (ii) 24 hrs landfall error 150 kms 12 hrs (iii) 36 hrs landfall error 150 kms 18 hrs NISHA Landfall error Point error Time error (i) 12 hrs landfall error 45 kms 8 hrs (ii) 24 hrs landfall error 100 kms 18 ½ hrs (iii) 36 hrs landfall error 150 kms 8 hrs Average Landfall error of cyclonic storms during 2008 Landfall error Point error Time error (i) 12 hrs landfall error 43 kms 3½ hrs (ii) 24 hrs landfall error 95 kms 10 ½ hrs (iii) 36 hrs landfall error 137 kms 10 hrs

AKASH (14-15 MAY 2007)2007) AKASH (14-15 MAY

GONU (02-07 JUN 2007)

TROPICAL STORM 03B (21-26 JUN 2007)

TROPICAL STORM 04B (28-29 JUN 2007)

TROPICAL STORM 05A (28 OCT-02 NOV 2007)

CYCLONE-4 SIDR (11-16 NOV 2007)

CYCLONE-4 NARGIS (27 APR-03 MAY 2008)

TROPICAL STORM TWO(16-16 SEP 2008)

TROPICAL STORM THREE(20-23 OCT 2008)

TROPICAL STORM RASHMI(26-27 OCT 2008)

TROPICAL STORM KHAI_MUK(14-16 NOV 2008)

TROPICAL STORM NISHA(25-27 NOV 2008)

TROPICAL STORM SEVEN (04-07 DEC 2008)

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