HErZ TB4 Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics

HErZ TB4 Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Retrospective Analysis of Regional Climate Christian Ohlwein, Petra Friederichs, Andreas Hense, Ieda Pscheidt, Christoph Wosnitza, David Willms Meteorologisches Institut, Universität Bonn Susanne Crewell, Stefan Kneifel, Stephanie Redl, Sandra Steinke Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln Jan Keller Deutscher Wetterdienst http://www.herz.uni-bonn.de/ Evalua&on of the Hans- Ertel- Centre for Weather Research 19 November 2012, DWD, Offenbach

Outline 1) Research Objectives 2) Project Status 3) Scientific Highlights 4) Establishment of the Branch 5) Summary and Outlook 2

Outline 1) Research Objectives 2) Project Status 3) Scientific Highlights 4) Establishment of the Branch 5) Summary and Outlook 3

Topic 4 Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Funding guideline è Perform a retrospective and future-oriented analysis of regional climate for the coupled system of atmosphere, ocean, and land surface è Perform process-oriented climate monitoring with optimised monitoring networks including its synergetic use è Incorporate satellite data 4

Topic 4 Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Objectives è Provide a high resolution regional reanalysis for Europe and Germany è Develop methods for the assimilation of rain gauge measurements è Incorporate satellite and GOP data for verification è Provide diagnostics of the energy, water, and momentum cycles 5

WP1: Regional reanalysis WP2: Assimilation of precipitation data WP3: Satellite and GOP data WP5: Verification and data publication WP4: Reforecasts 6

Team and Work Packages 7

Outline 1) Research Objectives 2) Project Status 3) Scientific Highlights 4) Establishment of the Branch 5) Summary and Outlook 8

Project Status 2011 2012 2013 2014 WP1: Regional reanalysis WP2: Assimilation of precipitation WP3: Satellite- and GOP data WP4: Reforecasts WP5: Verification and data publication 9

Outline 1) Research Objectives 2) Project Status 3) Scientific Highlights Regional reanalysis Assimilation of precipitation Microwave forward operator Verification 4) Establishment of the Branch 5) Summary and Outlook 10

WP1 - Regional Reanalysis è Provide regional reanalysis data for Germany 5 years (30 years) Based on the operational NWP system COSMO-EU originally as dynamical downscaling è Implementation Technically more complicated Reanalysis operational analysis More effort had to be made to set up the system European domain now as a full reanalysis 11

WP1 - Regional Reanalysis ERA-Interim (T255) COSMO-CORDEX (6.2 km) Soil moisture analysis (SMA, daily) Continuous nudging SST analysis (daily) Snow analysis (6-hourly) COSMO-DE (2.8 km) Latent heat nudging (LHN) 12

WP1 - Regional Reanalysis è Current state System is set up and running at ECMWF Reanalysis production for over 2 weeks 1 year CORDEX reanalysis will be finished by mid-december (milestone) 14 month (12 + 2 month spin-up period) Available as of this morning: 1 November 2010-15 March 2011 13

WP2 - Assimilation of Precipitation è Provide tempo-spatial fields of precipitation Radar observations not available before 2005 Substitute for radar in LHN è Implementation Spatial Generalized Linear Model (SGLM) Currently driven by data from rain gauges, IR brightness temperatures 15

WP2 Assimilation of Precipitation è Example Probability of precipitation (y/n) Estimated radar precipitation è Data used Rain gauges Meteosat TB 3 August 2007 02 to 03 UTC 16

Regional Reanalysis and Assimilation of Precipitation 17

WP3 Microwave Forward Operator è Development of a microwave forward operator COSMO output Verification using MW sensors è Implementation Passive / Active Microwave TRAnsfer operator (PAMTRA) Simulation of arbitrary MW sensors Available as a verification tool for COSMO data HErZ DWD 18

WP3 Microwave Forward Operator è Example CloudSat 16 June 2007-00 UTC 19

Verification with the MW Forward Operator PAMTRA 20

WP5 Verification è Verification of the regional reanalysis Implement tools and develop new methods for verifying reanalyses Use independent observations Compare to global reanalyses è Implementation Development and tests performed on test month Verification from different perspectives Effect of LHN on the reanalysis 21

WP5 Verification LHN 1.00 LHN 0.25 LHN 0.00 22

Verification of the COSMO-DE reanalysis 23

Outline 1) Research Objectives 2) Project Status 3) Scientific Highlights 4) Establishment of the Branch Teaching Cooperation Visibility External funding 5) Summary and Outlook 24

Teaching è Supervision of theses 6 PhD students 3 Master students (+3 finished) 1 Bachelor student è Lectures Standard lectures Data assimilation (J. Keller) Joint seminar on research topics in HErZ (TB1, TB4) è Training events HErZ Training Event on Verification, Spring 2013 (TB4, TB5) 25

Cooperation è Internal Project Advisory Board (PAB) 6 permanent members from DWD Continuous advise and support è External European partners in the FP7-SPACE Call NCAR (GSP, DAReS, RAL), NOAA (NCDC) CMA/CAS (China) 26

Visibility è Publications Three journal articles, directly related to HErZ First synthesis of all WP still in preparation (poster) è Presentations Conference contributions Public lecture events è External funding proposals Especially reanalysis activities on the European domain 27

External funding proposals è FP7-SPACE Call: UERRA Ensemble system of regional re-analyses, 12 European partners 340,000 (6 ) è FP7 CORE-CLIMAX Coordination-action for regional reanalyses and their verification 190.000 ( ) è KLIWAS Coupled atmosphere-ocean-reanalysis for North Sea/Baltic Sea 385,000 (6 ) è SFB/TR Initiative Terrestrial Water and Energy Cycle Regional reanalysis for Africa ( ) 28

Outline 1) Research Objectives 2) Project Status 3) Scientific Highlights 4) Establishment of the Branch 5) Summary and Outlook 29

Summary and Outlook è Scientifically Development of a high-resolution regional reanalysis Verification and validation from different perspectives, e.g., PAMTRA Reanalysis operational analysis è Structurally 30

Summary and Outlook è Scientifically è Structurally Increased impact through an additional CORDEX/EU reanalysis Framework for the participation in international activities on climate monitoring Learnt from global reanalyses 1. End-to-end programme 2. Sustained and with long-term perspective 3. Adequate evaluation of products 4. Dissemination beyond the research domain Hans-Ertel-Centre 31