Mike Daly Executive Vice President, Exploration Global trends influencing exploration Seismic vessel in the Ceduna Basin, Australia
Global trends influencing exploration Future resource trends Deepwater: capturing the remaining resource Arctic: unexplored rock volumes of the ice-bound offshore Re-exploration of onshore (and shallow-water) basins: Frontiers, deepening, tight reservoirs in old giants, shale sweet spots Future challenges and technology trends Striving for the perfect seismic image Management of pressures in excess of 20k psi (1) Ice management, spill response, community and environmental impact Transformation of flow rates from unconventionals (1) Thousand pounds per square inch
Global discovered resource and yet-to-find Conventional discovered: 4.5 tnboe Tnboe 5 4 3 2 1 1948: Ghawar 176 bnboe 1936-40: Supergiants in Venezuela, Iran, Kuwait 1927: Kirkuk 26 bnboe 1971: North Field 193 bnboe 1979: Troll 10 bnboe 1992: Qatar Arch 103 bnboe 2004: Yoloten 67 bnboe Deepwater Arctic sub-ice Onshore Shelf Conventional yet-to-find: ~ 1 tnboe 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Onshore North America Middle East (On/Offshore) Onshore Latin America Onshore C.I.S. Onshore Africa Onshore RoW Shelf (ex Middle East) Arctic Deepwater Source: IHS, EIA and CAPP (Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers) for onshore North America data
Material new plays of the past decade all deepwater Material new plays characterised by: Deeper reservoirs in existing provinces The outer margins ( medial and distal fans ) of deltas GoM Palaeogene 5.5 East Mediterranean pre-messinian Angola Congo Fan 9 East India gas 3 Industry deepwater discovered volumes (bnboe) 50 9 22 East Africa gas Source: IHS EDIN South Atlantic pre-salt
Technology unlocking Mad Dog, Gulf of Mexico Application of seismic technology Industry-first WATS (1) survey, contributing to a doubling of resource at Mad Dog through its appraisal programme WATS has since become the industry standard, contributing to Palaeogene success Now being applied beyond the Gulf of Mexico Discovery map and seismic data quality 1998 Current map and seismic data quality 2011 OWC (1) Wide Azimuth Towed Streamer
Project 20K Major technology project to progress 20k psi (1) resources Collaborating with contractors, vendors, regulators and universities Key system defined by end 2013 Front End Engineering Design begins in 2014 (1) Thousand pounds per square inch
Arctic yet-to-find Alaska: Beaufort North Slope Chukchi 74 20 1 0.1 10 127 5 South Kara 3 17 Yet-to-find volume (bnboe) Northeast Greenland 7 62 31 Source: United States Geological Survey, 2008 7 Russian Barents
Challenges for activity in the Arctic Considerations for sustained industry activity Commercial Technological Operational safety Regulatory Ecological Cultural/socio-economical Reputational Security Image courtesy of Per Frejvall, Arctic Marine Solutions Lomonosov Ridge, 2004
Re-exploration of the onshore The remaining unexplored rock volumes onshore Frontier basins with challenging access (e.g. Congo). Re-exploring old basins Deepening: exploring upwards from source rocks to existing shallow pay Tight reservoirs: in and around existing oil and gas giants Shales: achieving economic flow rates from the world s great source rocks BP Lozier Canyon #1 Austin Formation Eagle Ford Formation Buda Formation BP tight gas and shale positions
Challenges for onshore activity Considerations for hydraulic fracturing onshore Management of water and other fluids Seismic activity Air quality and GHG emissions Community impact Land and sensitive ecologies Durango facility, Colorado, USA
Risks presented by future industry activity Deepwater Managing pressures in excess of 20k psi (1) Arctic Ice management Spill response Communities Reputation Onshore Management of water and fluids Communities Industry footprint in sensitive ecologies (1) Thousand pounds per square inch Wamsutter, Wyoming, USA