Education Days Moscow Opening Session

Education Days Moscow 2013 Basin and Petroleum Systems Modelling: Applications for Conventional and Unconventional Petroleum Exploration Risk and Resource Assessments By Dr Bjorn Wygrala Schlumberger 21-22 November 2013 1. Opening Session

1. Opening Session: Industry Challenges and Opportunities Conventional Petroleum Systems 2. Deepwater and Salt 3. Structural Complexity 4. Reservoir in Petroleum Systems Modeling Theoretical Aspects 5. Temperature and Pressure 6. Petroleum Generation and Migration Unconventional Petroleum Systems 7. Shale Gas/Oil 8. Gas Hydrates 9. Closing Session: Petroleum Systems Modeling in Context 2

World Energy Consumption the role of oil and gas 3

World Energy Consumption Fossil fuels: 81.2% including petroleum (oil and gas >50%) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/world_energy_consumption Benefits of Natural Gas: - no particulate emissions - no sulfur dioxide - no heavy metals (e.g. mercury) - no ash residues - half the CO 2 emissions when compared to coal 4

Global Reserves 5 The reserves of the privately owned companies are grouped together. The oil produced by the "supermajor" companies accounts for less than 15% of the total world supply. Over 80% of the world's reserves of oil and natural gas are controlled by national oil companies. Of the world's 20 largest companies, 15 are state-owned companies. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/oil_industry

Oil and Gas Generation temperature and time! 6

7 Temperature and Time!

Temperature and Time! General scheme of evolution of organic matter from the freshly deposited sediment to the metamorphic zone. CH: carbohydrates AA: amino acids FA: fulvic acids HA: humic acids L: lipids HC: hydrocarbons N, S, O: NSO compounds (nonhydrocarbons) from: TISSOT & WELTE (1984) 8

From Organic Matter to Petroleum 10 6 g 0.1% biosphere 10 3 g 2.0% sedimentary rocks 20 g 0.5% generated petroleum 0.1 g 9 petroleum within reservoir rocks

Only a Fraction of the Generated Petroleum is Trapped Water Depth 2417 m 2531 m 2318 m 2210 m 10

11 Only a Fraction of the Generated Petroleum is Trapped

12 Only a Fraction of the Generated Petroleum is Trapped

Conventional Petroleum Systems and Processes In conventional petroleum systems, we are interested in the hydrocarbons that have been expelled from the source rocks Reservoir System loss Carrier System loss Source System source unit carrier source unit Basic processes: - generation - expulsion - migration - containment (accumulation/loss) 13

Current Challenges in Exploration US$100 million to drill an offshore well US$1 million per day to operate an offshore drilling platform If all goes well (example Statoil*): - 66 wells drilled - 35 discoveries - 2.5 Billion barrels discovered - x US$100 per barrel * 18 month period from 2011 to mid 2012 14

Current Challenges in Exploration $80 120M $110 120M $100 125M $150 200M $100 200M $75 100M $10 15M $100+M and indicative well costs 15

Unconventional Petroleum Systems and Processes In unconventional petroleum systems, we are interested in the hydrocarbons that have been retained in the source rocks Source/Reservoir System source unit source unit Basic processes: - generation - retention - secondary cracking of oil to gas - containment (accumulation/loss) 16

Unconventional Oil and Gas - Production Technology A combination of proven methods: - directional drilling (horizontal) - hydraulic fracturing ('fracking') Source/ Carrier/ Reservoir http://dolphinresourcesllc.com/fracking/ 17

Unconventional Oil and Gas - Production Technology www.wintershall.com Source/ Carrier/ Reservoir http://dolphinresourcesllc.com/fracking/ 18

Unconventional Oil and Gas Production - Geomechanical Properties Containment 'Seals' lower brittleness/ fracability due to lower quartz/ carbonate content Source/ Carrier/ Reservoir higher brittleness/ fracability due to higher quartz/ carbonate content Hydraulic fracturing is only economically viable and is often only technically possible if it is 'contained' within the reservoir 19

Rapid Developments in Unconventionals! The Bakken Shale in Williston Basin: the world's largest unconventional oil field 2011 2000 Antrim Lower Huron Barnett Schlumberger Oilfield Review Autumn 2011 20

An Energy 'Revolution' http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/ 21

22 It's Not Just Shale Gas Williston/Bakken Shale Oil

Rapid Developments in Unconventionals! The Bakken Shale in the Williston Basin Expected 1 million Barrels of Oil per Day in 2014 23

Rapid Developments in Unconventionals! The Bakken Shale in the Williston Basin Image: National Geographic magazine 24

Rapid Technical Development and Production Efficiencies Industrialization of Unconventional Production MEGA PAD LOCATIONS 52 wells on 4.6 acres of land (18,500 m 2 ) 50 m x 370 m 25 Source: EnCana

Bazhenov Shale, Russia 27 The Bazhenov shale covers 2.3 million km 2, which is 80 times the area of the Bakken shale (28,750 km 2 )

Petroleum Systems Modeling: Definitions A Petroleum System is defined as a natural system that encompasses a pod of active source rock and all related oil and gas and which includes all of the geologic elements and processes that are essential if a hydrocarbon accumulation is to exist. Leslie B. Magoon and Wallace G. Dow, AAPG Memoir 60, 1994 A Petroleum Systems Model is a digital data model of an entire petroleum system in which the interrelated processes and their results can be simulated in order to understand and predict them. The model is dynamic, i.e. it provides a complete record through geologic time. 28

From Megaregional to Reservoir Scales Typical Model Size in Exploration: Regional Scale with about 10 million cells 1000-2000 km MEGA-REGIONAL SCALE Total Hydrocarbon HC Resource Resource Assessment: Assessment Total Entire Mexican Golf of Part Mexico, of GoM, PEMEX RESERVOIR SCALE Middle-East Oil Field KOC Kuwait 100-200 km REGIONAL SCALE Exploration Risk Assessment: Campos Basin, Eastern Brasil, Wintershall AG 10-20 km 29