Globalization, Megacities and Waste Management Antonis Mavropoulos CEO EPEM SA, ISWA STC Chair amavrop@epem.gr
Aim and contents Aim To frame megacities within globalization context To outline the challenge of waste management in megacities Contents Notes on globalization Economy Knowledge Governance Understanding Megacities & SWM Globalization Growth Poverty & slums Governance Conclusions
Project: globalization and SWM Overall scope of work: to demonstrate the opportunities as well as the threats that globalization poses to waste management and create a conceptual framework for a more successful adaptation of them in future plans and activities. Modules: Megacities Informal Sector Recycling Markets International Aid
1. Notes on Globalization Economy Knowledge - culture Governance
Economy Global market - Increase in FDI Openness income distribution Global middle class coming Increase in global trade Vs Industrial production
1990-2030: Middle class increase by 4
Trade flows are not significantly higher than they were prior to 1914 if one measures them against GDP, but loom much larger if they are compared against industrial production.
Knowledge - culture Interconnectivity Flows of trends, ideas, practices, cultures Green Economy & Environmental protection as a trend Internet Consumption trends
Interconnectivity
New Era?
The power of all?
Governance A key intervention Global stakeholders increase their influence Local stakeholders are more open to global input Megacities are deeply involved and influenced by governance patterns
Governance & SWM Globalisation increasingly difficult for states to rely only on national regulation e.g. recycling & zero waste Growing demand for global regulation, e.g. waste trafficking, raw materials Globalisation involvement of a growing diversity of participants and their coalitions in addressing SWM Direct increase of international financial flows dedicated to SWM creates a new arena for decision-making
2. Understanding megacities We live in the first urban & overcrowded century By 2050: 2/3 of the world s population will live in cities Megacities are growing both in number and in population
2008 Megacities
Numbers to remember 1950: 2 megacities 2015: 33 megacities 27 of them in developing countries 2003: 283 million people 75% in developing countries 2015: 360 million people 82% in developing countries
3 archetypes Emerging: high growth rates spatial growth high informal growth with huge gaps in municipal services Transitional: slower growth, better municipal services, informal settlements under control Mature: less than 1% growth rates, infrastructure in place, older population
Dynamics and growth Growth rates Population: 2,5 6% Spatial Growth: Bangkok from 67 to 426 km 2 in 40 years Economic Growth: Buenos Aires: 45% of the national GDP, Dhaka: 60% of the national GDP Complexity growth: the mixer never stops Waste growth 44% increase of food waste worldwide between 2005 2025 Asia: from 278 to 416 millions tons per year With current practices: CO 2 emissions will increase from 34 to 48 millions tons per year! Rates 4 9%
Cities growth 2007-2025 Source: Urban World: Mapping the Economic Power of Cities, Mc Kinsey, March 2011
Dwellings in Latin America Source: Urban World: Mapping the Economic Power of Cities, Mc Kinsey, March 2011
Decline of household size Source: Urban World: Mapping the Economic Power of Cities, Mc Kinsey, March 2011
The fluid city Source: Urban World: Design & Research For Qinzhou Masterplan, Feng Xu, 2010
Systems far from equilibrium Drivers of spatial growth: randomness, physical constraints, natural advantage, comparative advantage Spatial growth is not predictable There are physical & managerial limits Growth can be simulated using epidemics or diffusion models Megacities operate in three rather than two dimensions
Consequences to SWM SW quantities increase rapidly Infrastructure comes always too late SWM Master plans are almost meaningless Land required for SWM is not available SWM services are hardly managed from a single center
Poverty and slums Symbiosis of extremes in the same shell extreme inequality Informal areas cover 30-50% of the population and usually more than 20% of the city area 40-70% of the growth is out of any planning OECD: poverty and social exclusion lead to significant but not accounted costs Megacities as patchwork
Source: GlobeScan, MRC McLean Hazel, 2008, Megacities Challenges A stakeholder perspective, Siemens AG, Corporate Communications (CC)
Consequences to SWM Informal sector plays a very important role Collection frequency and coverage in slum areas are very weak or even not delivered usually less than 10% of the slums has a kind of collection service Different city patches, with different municipal services and infrastructure create different SWM practices Uniform or centralized approaches are not suitable
Regarding Governance Governance of the unpredicted, non planned, high and complex growth Usually authorities are outgrown by city s expansion Urban planning tends to be reactive at best Fragmentation of administrative jurisdiction is a real barrier Lack of any systematic approach to decision making
Priorities Source: GlobeScan, MRC McLean Hazel, 2008, Megacities Challenges A stakeholder perspective, Siemens AG, Corporate Communications (CC)
SWM budget 3-15%, roughly 80-90% for collection Asia spends about 25 $ billions/ year it is going to 50 until 2025 Lack of reliable information and monitoring a systematic problem
SWM and governance Waste Management and Cleanliness of the city are indicators of good governance Suitability and effectiveness of the services provided to slums and poorer areas is a measure of the successful management of urban poverty reduction of health risks by inappropriate waste collection
Megacities and globalization They are the interface of their countries with global economy & culture They are parts of the waste trafficking and the resource management global network They are Global Risk Areas due to their: High population density High integration and interconnection with the rest of the world High vulnerability to natural disasters
Why global risk areas? First, their scale and complexity make it difficult to provide the lifeline and transportation infrastructure necessary for risk reduction Second, their massive environmental footprint can act as both a trigger and an indirect effect of a disaster situation. In other words, mega-cities urban ecologies can exacerbate a natural hazard Third, their concentrations of industry also exacerbate mega-cities disaster vulnerability.
Fourth, many mega-cities are usually located in geographically hazardous locations such as coastal areas or seismically active zones, making them susceptible to floods, windstorms, wild fires, earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanoes Fifth, mega-cities contain incredible social diversity, the greatest disparities in wealth, and large-scale illegal immigrants and squatter settlements, leaving marginalized groups particularly vulnerable
Only 10% of the planet is considered remote!
Issues to be considered The role of informal sector Technologies and systems applied Stereotypic thinking is not capable to provide solutions forget the usual dilemmas It is absolutely necessary to control waste generation as soon as possible
and some tips Strategic Urban SWM plan instead of Master Plans priorities according vulnerability inclusivity as a way to handle the complexity Patchwork of solution for patchwork of conditions not one solution fits all Analyze successes and failures Plan for gradual improvements is more efficient than waiting for substantial infrastructure delivery
Study the informal sector dynamics Occupy land as soon as possible even in small pieces Check the possibility of underground developments to reduce logisitcs Emergency response for SWM crises is more than necessary
But above all Create the core of the human capital required to deal the problem Use coaching instead of typical consulting projects Invest in training and capacity building in order to prepare local understanding with global principles
The other side of megacities Resources concentration Innovation Human creativity Megacities are ideal places for social, Earth, environmental and medical scientists to investigate the impact of socio-economic and political activities on environmental change and vice versa, and to identify solutions to the worst problems. For these reasons, megacity research has the potential to contribute substantially to global justice and peace and thereby prosperity.
amavrop@epem.gr THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION
Suggested readings 1. Solid Waste Management in the World s Cities, UN HABITAT Book, 2010 2. Urban World: Mapping the Economic Power of Cities, Mc Kinsey, March 2011 3. GlobeScan, MRC McLean Hazel, 2008, Megacities Challenges A stakeholder perspective, Siemens AG, Corporate Communications (CC) 4. Waste Management 2030+, Antonis Mavropoulos, Waste Management World, December 2010 5. Megacities and waste management in transition countries, Antonis Mavropoulos, ISWA World Congress 2010, Hamburg 6. Bijaya K. Adhikari, Suzelle Barrington, 2006, Predicted growth of world urban food waste and methane production, Waste Management & Research 2006: 24: 421 433 7. Theo Kötter, 2004, Risks and Opportunities of Urbanization and Megacities, Proceedings of FIG Working Week 2004 in Athens, FIG, Copenhagen. 8. Frauke Kraas, 2003, Megacities as Global Risk Areas, Petermanns Geographische Mitteilungen, 147, 2003/4 9. Panayotou Theodore, July 2000, Globalization and Environment, CID Working Paper No. 53, Environment and Development Paper No.1. 10. Sachs Jeffrey, 2008, Common Wealth: Economics for a crowded planet, Penguin Books.