Solar irradiance modelling over Belgium using WRF-ARW :

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Solar irradiance modelling over Belgium Sensitivity analysis of Mellor-Yamada- Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) boundary layer scheme parameters Beaumet J., Fettweis X., Doutreloup S. & Erpicum M. Meteoclim, PhD Symposium Antwerpen, 06/06/2014

Overview Context Simulation set-up Results Focus : modelling of different weather/clouds types - Low clouds (St, Sc) - Convective clouds (Cu) - Clear skies and thermal inversions A Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) / WRF-ARW comparison Conclusions 2 J.Beaumet (ULg)

I. Context PREMASOL project : - Photovoltaic production day-ahead Solar Incident Irradiances (SWD) forecasting (+ 2m Wind and T ) using WRF-ARW forced by GFS - Global and diffuse irradiance measurement at Centre Spatial de Liège (CSL) PhD : Regional Climate Model version calibrated for solar irradiance, wind and temperature modelling over Belgium forecasting and future changes 3 J.Beaumet (ULg)

II. Simulations set-up WRF-ARW v3.6 (released April 2014) Surface schemes : 6 microphysic schemes : 16 Short-wave schemes : 7 boundary layer schemes : 10 Cumulus schemes : 9 surface layer schemes : 7 Inner domain : 5 km Time-scale : 15 minutes Observations : SWD measured at Liège (Sart-Tilman) Validation : Two periods November December 2013 March April 2014 Relative BIAS and RMSE (in %) 4 J.Beaumet (ULg)

III. Results Huge number of possible set-ups Lot of them tested at our laboratory NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES In spring : significant positive (dry) BIAS (+20%) and RMSE ~ 40 % In winter : slight negative BIAS (-10%) but very large relative RMSE (~70%) Get inside scheme codes for further calibration Surface scheme : Noah lsm Microphysics scheme : Thompson SW scheme : Dudhia Surface layer scheme : Monin-Obukhov Cumulus scheme : Kain-Fritsch Boundary layer scheme : MYNN 2.5 5 J.Beaumet (ULg)

III. Solar irradiance modelling over Belgium Results Over a «long» period : no significant changes/improvements But for some days, changes can be important November December 2013 March April 2014 rbias(%) rrmse(%) rbias(%) rrmse(%) Alp5 = 0.5-9,4 76,3 Alp5 = 1.0-11,8 77 Alp5 = 5.0-5,8 68,9 Alp5 = 10.0 0 71,6 Alp5 = 0.5 22,7 41,4 Alp5 = 1.0 22,2 41,5 Alp5 = 5.0 23 42,2 Alp5 = 10.0 21,1 42,6 Relative (in %) BIAS and RMSE for the modelling of solar irradiance (SWD) using different WRF versions at Liège (Sart-Tilman) Alp5 : in winter reduced negative BIAS for increasing values increase mixing length fastest cloud clearance 6 J.Beaumet (ULg)

IV. Focus : modelling of low clouds (St, Sc) Modelled vs Observed SWD at Liège (Sart-Tilman) 7 J.Beaumet (ULg) WRF versions : alp5 = 0.5,1,5,10

IV. Focus : modelling of low clouds (St, Sc) Modelled cloud water content over Liège (Sart-Tilman) 8 J.Beaumet (ULg) WRF versions : alp5 = 1,5

IV. Focus : modelling of low clouds (St, Sc) Modelled cloud water content over Liège (Sart-Tilman) Obs: Am. 5,6/8 St Pm. 8/8 Sc 9 J.Beaumet (ULg) WRF versions : alp5 = 1,5

IV. Focus : modelling of convective clouds (Cu) Modelled vs Observed SWD at Liège (Sart-Tilman) 10 J.Beaumet (ULg) WRF versions : alp5 = 0.5,1,5,10

IV. Focus : modelling of convective clouds (Cu) Modelled cloud water content over Liège (Sart-Tilman) 11 J.Beaumet (ULg) WRF versions : alp5 = 1,5

IV. Focus : clear skies and pollution peak? Modelled vs Observed SWD at Liège (Sart-Tilman) 12 J.Beaumet (ULg)

V. MAR (ULg) / WRF comparison (2013) Modelled vs Observed SWD at Liège (Sart-Tilman) 13 J.Beaumet (ULg)

VI. Conclusions I. Boundary layer scheme parameters modifications : - No significant improvement considering long periods - Lack of convective clouds in WRF simulations unchanged - Possible strategy for ensembles forecasts II. Encouraging results for MAR model 14 J.Beaumet (ULg)

Reference Nakanishi M. and Niino H., 2004. An improved Mellor Yamada Level-3 model with Condensation physics : its design and verification. Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 112, 1-31. Mellor G. and Yamada T., 1982. Development of a turbulence closure model for geophysical fluid problems. Reviews of Geophysics, 20/4, 851-875. Kitamura Y., 2010. Modifications of the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) model for the stable stratification case. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 88-5, 857-864. Lopez-Coto I., Bosch J., Mathiensen P. and Kleissl J., 2012. Comparison between several parameterization schemes in WRF for solar forecasting in coastal zones. UCAR technical notes. Questions? 15 J.Beaumet (ULg)

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