DAILY MARKET REPORT 24 JANUARY 2018 Unigrain (Pty) Ltd Tel. No. : +27 11 692 4400 Fax. No. : +27 11 412 1183 Economic Indicators Quote at 12h00 previous day Current quote Change % Change Rand/Dollar 12.06 12.02-0.04-0.33 Euro/Dollar 1.2243 1.2318 0.0075 0.61 Gold 1336.59 1340.91 4.32 0.32 Platinum 988.7 1003.85 15.15 1.53 Brent Crude 69.44 69.85 0.41 0.59 JSE Top 40 54165 54521 356.00 0.66 Dow Jones Indus Avg 26214 26210-4.00-0.02 The changes in the table above is from previous Safex close (12h00) The rand posted some gains and is quoted at R12.02/$ this morning with the weaker dollar supporting the rand. Earlier this week the rand did manage to get some support at R12.00/$. South African equities posted some more gains yesterday with the JSE Top40 ending 0.66% higher. In the US the dollar is under pressure with the dollar trading at 1.2318 to the euro this morning. Optimism with regard to the European economy is supporting the Euro putting pressure on the dollar. US equities ended mostly flat in the daytime session and this morning the US equity futures are also flat. Commodity prices are higher across the board with the weaker dollar supporting commodity prices. Gold and platinum prices arte 0.32% and 1.53% higher than the levels seen yesterday while crude oil prices are 0.59% higher this morning. US Dollar/South African Rand Key data releases: Weekly South African producer deliveries South African December CPI European Union manufacturing PMI US existing home sales US manufacturing PMI
International Market Quote at 12h00 previous day Current quote Change % Change CME Mar maize 351 351.75 0.75 0.21 CME Jul maize 368 368.5 0.50 0.14 CME Mar wheat 423 421.75-1.25-0.30 KCBT Mar wheat 426.5 423-3.50-0.82 KCBT May wheat 440.25 437.5-2.75-0.62 Matif Mar wheat (Euro/ton) 155.25 155.5 0.25 0.16 CME Mar soybeans 985.25 984.25-1.00-0.10 Mar CME maize R/ton 1666 1664-1.98-0.12 Jul CME maize R/ton 1747 1744-3.43-0.20 Mar CME wheat R/ton 1874 1863-11.74-0.63 Mar KCBT wheat R/ton 1890 1868-21.73-1.15 May KCBT wheat R/ton 1951 1932-18.62-0.95 Mar CME soybeans R/ton 4366 4347-18.90-0.43 The changes in the table above is from Safex close (12h00) Corn US maize prices ended slightly lower on some technical selling and the spillover weakness from the lower US wheat prices. However the market is still slightly higher than the levels seen at Safex close yesterday. This morning the electronic maize prices are slightly higher. The weather conditions in Argentina limited some of the losses in the market. The warm and dry weather conditions could lower maize and soybean yields in Argentina in the season ahead. Dry weather is forecasted for the remainder of January. In the US maize export market the USDA announced a private export sale of 256 096 tons of US maize that was sold to an unknown destination. The private forecaster Informa Economics estimated the 2018 US maize area planted at 89.197 million acres which is down from their previous estimate seen at 89.675 million acres. Soybeans CME soybean contracts posted some gains in the daytime session yesterday with the weather conditions in Argentina providing some support to the market. This morning the electronic soybean prices are slightly lower. Warm and dry weather conditions are forecasted for some of the key areas in Argentina for the rest of January and early February which could lower Argentine soybean crop prospects going forward. The private forecaster Informa Economics estimated the 2018 US soybean area planted at 90.197 million acres which should be a new record high but down from their previous estimate seen at 91.387 million acres. Wheat US CME and KCBT wheat prices came under some more pressure in the daytime session yesterday on some technical selling that was seen while the global wheat supplies also limited the buying interest. This morning the electronic wheat prices are lower. European wheat prices also came under pressure in the session yesterday with US and European wheat battling to compete with lower priced Black Sea wheat in the export market. On the technical chart for March KCBT wheat we see that the market did break below the 40-day average and sold off after that ending the day close to the session low. Support is seen in the $4.20-$4.10 area which was also the lows seen in early December. 2
US cumulative rainfall forecast for week ahead (inches) US temperature forecast for week ahead South American weather forecast 3
South African Market 23 January 2018 Maize South African maize prices opened the day lower with some follow through weakness that was seen at the start of the session. March white maize opened the day at R1852 and traded to a low of R1842 before some buying/short covering was seen. Both March and July white maize contracts gained back some ground with March white maize erasing all of the early losses that was seen and traded to an intraday high of R1895 with the market ending the day slightly off the session highs. The buying/short covering that was seen could be supportive for the market in the sessions ahead but the indicators and averages remain under some pressure. This morning the US maize prices are unchanged to slightly higher but the stronger rand is still weighing on the market. We did see some late buying interest in our market yesterday but the overnight rainfall and weather forecast could limit the buying interest in our market in the session today. Wheat South African wheat prices opened the day mostly flat with some more buying that was seen after the opening. The slightly weaker rand provided some support. March wheat contracts opened the day at R3743 which was also the intraday low of the session with our market gaining back some ground after that. The market traded to an intraday high of R3763 finding some resistance just short of the 9-day average and the market ended the day slightly off the session highs. This morning the US CME and KCBT wheat prices are lower than the levels seen at Safex close yesterday and adding to this the rand is also stronger putting additional pressure on parity prices. The strength of the rand could weigh on our wheat market in the session today. Oilseeds White Maize MTM Change High Low Mar-18 1880.00 18.00 1895.00 1842.00 May-18 1926.00 20.00 1941.00 1903.00 Jul-18 1984.00 23.00 1997.00 1945.00 Yellow Maize Mar-18 1968.00 12.00 1982.00 1941.00 May-18 2015.00 20.00 2023.80 1987.00 Jul-18 2022.00 15.00 2033.80 1996.00 Wheat Mar-18 3752.00 10.00 3763.00 3742.00 May-18 3828.00 8.00 3838.20 3820.00 Jul-18 3867.00 18.00 3872.00 3855.00 Sunflower Mar-18 4755.00 96.00 4765.00 4670.00 May-18 4680.00 95.00 4693.00 4585.00 Soybeans Mar-18 4500.00 30.00 4600.00 4480.00 May-18 4531.00 21.00 4635.00 4510.00 CME Corn Mar-18 1679.00-9.00 1687.00 1676.00 Jul-18 1789.00-9.00 1800.60 1785.80 South African soybean contracts opened the day slightly higher with some more buying that was seen after the opening with the higher parity prices providing some support. March soybean contracts opened the day at R4485 and posted some strong gains after that trading to an intraday high of R4600 but quickly pulled off that level ending the day well off that level. On the technical chart for March soybeans we see that the moving averages and indicators remain under pressure but there could be some divergence between the RSI and prices. 4
South African sunflower seed contracts opened the day higher with some more buying/short covering that was seen after the opening. March sunflower seed contracts opened the day at R4670 which was also the intraday low of the session with our market gaining some more ground after that. Sunflower seed contracts surged to a high of R4765 breaking above the 100-day average and ending the day at the session high which could be supportive for our market in the sessions ahead. This morning the US soybean contracts are lower than the levels seen at Safex close yesterday which together with the stronger rand is putting pressure on parity prices this morning. The stronger rand and weather forecast could limit some of the buying interest in our market. Weather conditions Rainfall forecast for week ahead Temperature forecast for week ahead Technical Graphs Safex March WM prices CME March corn prices 5
Daily MAWH8 Cndl, MAWH8, Trade Price 2018/01/23, 1 852.00, 1 895.00, 1 842.00, 1 880.00N/A, N/A SMA, MAWH8, Trade Price(Last), 100 2018/01/23, 1 978.38 SMA, MAWH8, Trade Price(Last), 40 2018/01/23, 1 949.30 SMA, MAWH8, Trade Price(Last), 9 2018/01/23, 1 977.11 SMA, MAWH8, Trade Price(Last), 200 2018/01/23, 1 983.90 2017/04/06-2018/02/07 (JHB) Price ZAR T 2 160 2 130 2 100 2 070 2 040 2 010 1 980 1 950 1 920 1 890 MACD, MAWH8, Trade Price(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential 2018/01/23, -9.52, 5.96 Value ZAR T RSI, MAWH8, Trade Price(Last), 14, Wilder Smoothing 2018/01/23, 39.633 Value ZAR T 30 1 860 1 830 10 18 24 02 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 26 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 27 02 08 15 22 29 05 April 2017 May 2017 June 2017 July 2017 August 2017 September 2017 October 2017 November 2017 December 2017 January 2018 6
Daily CH8 Cndl, CH8, Trade Price, 2018/01/24, 351 1 / 4, 352, 351, 351 3 / 4, +0 1 / 2, (+0.14%), SMA, CH8, Trade Price(Last), 40, 2018/01/24, 351+, SMA, CH8, Trade Price(Last), 9, 2018/01/24, 350 1 / 2+, SMA, CH8, Trade Price(Last), 100, 2018/01/24, 357 7 / 8+ 2017/04/11-2018/02/07 (CHG) Price USc Bsh 415 410 405 400 395 390 385 380 375 370 365 360 357 7 / 8+ 355 MACD, CH8, Trade Price(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential, 2018/01/24, -0 1 / 8+, -0 1 / 2+ RSI, CH8, Trade Price(Last), 14, Exponential, 2018/01/24, 54.848 17 24 01 08 15 22 30 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 26 02 08 16 22 29 05 April 2017 May 2017 June 2017 July 2017 August 2017 September 2017 October 2017 November 2017 December 2017 January 2018 351 3 / 4 351+ 350 350 1 / 2+ 1/8 Value -0 USc 1 / 8+ -0 Bsh 1 / 2+ 1/8 Value USc 54.848 Bsh 7