Atmospheric Processes Atmospheric prognostic variables Wind Temperature Humidity Cloud Water/Ice Atmospheric processes Mixing Radiation Condensation/ Evaporation Precipitation Surface exchanges Friction Sensible heat flux Latent heat flux Surface variables Surface roughness Surface temperature Snow Soil moisture Melting 2
Atmospheric Processes Atmospheric prognostic variables Wind Temperature Humidity Cloud Water/Ice Atmospheric processes Mixing Radiation Condensation/ Evaporation Precipitation Surface exchanges Friction Sensible heat flux Latent heat flux Surface variables Surface roughness Surface temperature Snow Soil moisture Melting 2
Atmospheric Processes Atmospheric prognostic variables Wind Temperature Humidity Cloud Water/Ice Atmospheric processes Mixing Radiation Condensation/ Evaporation Precipitation Surface exchanges Friction Sensible heat flux Latent heat flux Surface variables Surface roughness Surface temperature Snow Soil moisture Melting 2
Supercomputer power and data are limiting factors 3
Modeling dilemma Resolution Complexity 4
0 0 2 4 6 8
0 0 2 4 6 8
0 0 2 4 6 8
0 cumulus 0 2 4 6 8
0 thunderstorms cumulus 0 2 4 6 8
0 sea breeze thunderstorms cumulus 0 2 4 6 8
0 synoptic-scale system sea breeze thunderstorms cumulus 0 2 4 6 8
0 monsoon synoptic-scale system sea breeze thunderstorms cumulus 0 2 4 6 8
0 monsoon synoptic-scale system sea breeze thunderstorms interseasonal vegetation cumulus 0 2 4 6 8
0 monsoon synoptic-scale system soil moisture sea breeze thunderstorms interseasonal vegetation cumulus 0 2 4 6 8
0 monsoon El Niño synoptic-scale system soil moisture sea breeze thunderstorms interseasonal vegetation cumulus 0 2 4 6 8
0 monsoon El Niño synoptic-scale system soil moisture sea breeze soil erosion thunderstorms interseasonal vegetation cumulus 0 2 4 6 8
0 monsoon El Niño synoptic-scale Ocean system circulation soil moisture sea breeze soil erosion thunderstorms interseasonal vegetation cumulus 0 2 4 6 8
0 CO2 variations monsoon El Niño synoptic-scale Ocean system circulation soil moisture sea breeze soil erosion thunderstorms interseasonal vegetation cumulus 0 2 4 6 8
Global climate 0 CO2 variations monsoon El Niño synoptic-scale Ocean system circulation soil moisture sea breeze soil erosion thunderstorms interseasonal vegetation cumulus 0 2 4 6 8
Spatial and Temporal Scales (2) 6
Spatial and Temporal Scales (2) Nowcasting (up to 2 hours) Local/Regional (mesh: 0.5-km) 6
Spatial and Temporal Scales (2) Nowcasting (up to 2 hours) Short-range (6-48 hours) Local/Regional (mesh: 0.5-km) Continental (mesh: 5-50km) 6
Spatial and Temporal Scales (2) Nowcasting (up to 2 hours) Short-range (6-48 hours) Medium-range - days Local/Regional (mesh: 0.5-km) Continental (mesh: 5-50km) Global (mesh: 40-200 km) 6
Spatial and Temporal Scales (2) Nowcasting (up to 2 hours) Short-range (6-48 hours) Medium-range - days Long-range (months,seasonal) Local/Regional (mesh: 0.5-km) Continental (mesh: 5-50km) Global (mesh: 40-200 km) Global (mesh: -400km) Need SST-forecast 6