COMPREHENSIVE NUCLEAR-TEST-BAN TREATY: TEN YEARS AFTER Amb. Tibor Tóth Executive Secretary Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization Provisional Technical Secretariat Vienna International Centre P.O. Box 1200 A-1400 Vienna AUSTRIA Provisional Technical Secretariat December 2006 Page 1
Signatures and Ratifications of CTBT - 22 Jan 2007 Provisional Technical Secretariat Page 2
Data from Remote Station, to Vienna, to State Signatory Provisional Technical Secretariat Page 3
Components of Verification Regime International Monitoring System 321 stations: seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasound, radionuclide International Data Centre collect, analyse, distribute data & products On-Site Inspection prepare for conduct of on-site inspection Provisional Technical Secretariat Page 4
International Monitoring System - Prospective 321 Stations, 16 Radionuclide Laboratories Infrasound Station Seismic Primary Array Seismic Primary 3-comp Station Seismic Auxiliary Array Seismic Auxiliary 3-comp Station Hydroacoustic (hydrophone) Station Hydroacoustic (T-phase) Station Radionuclide Station Radionuclide Lab Provisional Technical Secretariat Page 5
IMS Stations in IDC Operations - at 30 September 2006 (193 Stations) Infrasound Station Seismic Primary Array Seismic Primary 3-comp Station Seismic Auxiliary Array Seismic Auxiliary 3-comp Station Hydroacoustic (hydrophone) Station Hydroacoustic (T-phase) Station Radionuclide Station Radionuclide Lab Provisional Technical Secretariat Page 6
Events Located by PTS - 21 February 2000 to 30 June 2006 152,416 Events ~25k/year Provisional Technical Secretariat Page 7
Pipeline of the International Data Centre Data Processing, Analysis, Screening, Fusion, Review, Access Inputs: (accessible as soon as it arrives) Raw Data Auxiliary Seismic Seismic Hydroacoustic Infrasound Analyst Review Radionuclide Event Screening Analyst Review Fission Product Screening Final Quality Review (done for all reviewed products) All raw data (cont.) Outputs: Standard Event List 1 Standard Event List 2 Standard Reviewed Standard Event List & Standard Screened 3 Event Bulletins Event Bulletin Logarithmic Time Scale AutomaticReviewedStandard Radnuc. Radnuc. Screened Report Report Radnuc. Event Bulletin 1 hr 2 hrs 4 hrs 6 hrs 10 hrs 1 day 2 days 1 wk 2 wks Fused Products & Executive Summaries (daily) Provisional Technical Secretariat Page 8
Civil and Scientific Applications of CTBT Verification Technologies Potential civil and scientific applications were identified and examined during three scientific experts discussions held in: 2002 (London, UK), 2003 (Sopron, Hungary), 2004 (Berlin, Germany): Seismic Hydroacoustic Infrasound Radionuclide - Research on earthquake/volcanic eruption prediction - Studies on the structure of the earth - Location of underwater volcanic events - Monitoring of sea temperature and signs of global warming - Detection of volcanic eruptions (possible effects on aviation) - Oceanic swell research - Atmospheric and meteorological studies - Detection of meteor impacts in the atmosphere - Radiation monitoring on possible radioactive releases - Studies on natural radioactivity - Atmospheric monitoring and biological research Provisional Technical Secretariat Page 9
Indian Ocean Tsunamigenic Earthquake - Main Shock and Aftershocks 26 Dec. 2004 to 02 Jan. 2005 Main shock from the Reviewed Event Bulletin Main Shock Origin Time: 00:58:48.87 UTC Location: 3.33 North 95.78 East Magnitudes: mb = 5.7 (body-wave) Ms = 8.3 (surface wave) Over 800 aftershocks (black dots) recorded Provisional Technical Secretariat Page 10
Tsunami Warning Centres Data Supplying Experimental mode via IDC Japan 19 Seismic Stations 1 Hydroacoustic Hawaii 6 Seismic Stations Seismic Primary Array Seismic Primary 3-comp Station Seismic Auxiliary 3-comp Station Hydroacoustic (hydrophone) Station Infrasound Station Tsunami Warning Centre Provisional Technical Secretariat Page 11
Tsunami Warning Centres Data Supplying Experimental mode via IDC Malaysia 2 Tsunami Centers 7 Seismic Stations 2 Hydroacoustic Australia 12 Seismic Stations 1 Hydroacoustic 2 Infrasound Seismic Primary Array Seismic Auxiliary 3-comp Station Infrasound Station Seismic Primary 3-comp Station Hydroacoustic (hydrophone) Station Tsunami Warning Centre Provisional Technical Secretariat Page 12
Map of the Region with the REB Events since the beginning of IDC Operations Provisional Technical Secretariat Page 13
INGE stations planned to be operating by end 2006 (coordinates are PrepCom II recommendations) ARX01 AUX09 CAX05 CAX16 CAX17 Buenos Aires Darwin Ottawa Yellowknife St. John s CNX20 DEX33 FRX27 JPX38 Beijing Schauinsland Papeete Takasaki MNX45 NOX49 PAX50 RUX61 SEX63 Ulaanbaatar Spitsbergen Panama City Dubna Stockholm ARIX SAUNA SPALAX Provisional Technical Secretariat Page 14 Active in INGE
Noble gases: the smoking gun of an underground nuclear explosion An underground nuclear test creates seismic waves, possibly hydro-acoustic /infra-sound coupling Radionuclide monitoring provides the only direct method with the potential to establish whether a nuclear explosion has occurred A contained underground nuclear explosion may emit radioactive noble gases into the atmosphere How? 3 Scenarios Early venting due to high pressure of the explosion and other dynamic effects (pushes gas through cracks and fissures in the bedrock) Venting due to opening of tunnels or drilling of holes etc. for measurements of the test can happen days till weeks after the event Sucking of gases (among others, radioxenon) from deposits in the walls of cracks and fissures by low pressure weather systems Provisional Technical Secretariat Page 15
Source of meteorological data utilized in all ATM European Meteorological Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ECMWF is accepted as the best provider of global meteorological data sets Number of observations used daily exceeds 6 million These include 29 different types of satellite observation Provisional Technical Secretariat Page 16
INGE stations planned to be operating by end 2006 (coordinates are PrepCom II recommendations) ARX01 AUX09 CAX05 CAX16 CAX17 Buenos Aires Darwin Ottawa Yellowknife St. John s CNX20 DEX33 FRX27 JPX38 Beijing Schauinsland Papeete Takasaki MNX45 NOX49 PAX50 RUX61 SEX63 Ulaanbaatar Spitsbergen Panama City Dubna Stockholm ARIX SAUNA SPALAX Provisional Technical Secretariat Page 17 Active in INGE
IMS Stations in IDC Operations - at 30 September 2006 (193 Stations) Infrasound Station Seismic Primary Array Seismic Primary 3-comp Station Seismic Auxiliary Array Seismic Auxiliary 3-comp Station Hydroacoustic (hydrophone) Station Hydroacoustic (T-phase) Station Radionuclide Station Radionuclide Lab Provisional Technical Secretariat Page 18
Average Detection Capability of the IMS Network during the hour of the event Provisional Technical Secretariat Page 19
International Monitoring System - Prospective 321 Stations, 16 Radionuclide Laboratories Infrasound Station Seismic Primary Array Seismic Primary 3-comp Station Seismic Auxiliary Array Seismic Auxiliary 3-comp Station Hydroacoustic (hydrophone) Station Hydroacoustic (T-phase) Station Radionuclide Station Radionuclide Lab Provisional Technical Secretariat Page 20
Summary on IDC Secure Website IDC Secure Webpage Documents Information related to Provisional Technical Secretariat Page 21
Secure Signatory Accounts as of 12 October 2006 Africa Middle East and South Asia Algeria Libya Nigeria Bangladesh Kyrgyzstan Botswana Madagascar South Africa Iran (Islamic Republic of) Oman Burkina Faso Malawi Tunisia Israel Sri Lanka Egypt Mali Uganda Jordan Tajikistan Ethiopia Morocco Zambia Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Kenya Namibia Zimbabwe Kuwait Eastern Europe North America and Western Europe Albania Hungary Austria France Spain Armenia Lithuania Belgium Germany Sweden Azerbaijan Poland Canada Greece Switzerland Belarus Romania Cyprus Iceland Turkey Bulgaria Russian Federation Denmark Italy UK Czech Republic Slovakia Finland Netherlands USA Estonia Slovenia Norway Georgia Ukraine Latin America and the Caribbean South-East Asia, the Pacific and the Far East Argentina Honduras Australia New Zealand Thailand Belize Jamaica China Papua New Guinea Viet Nam Bolivia Mexico Indonesia Philippines Brazil Panama Japan Republic of Korea Chile Paraguay Malaysia Solomon Islands Costa Rica Peru Ecuador Uruguay El Salvador Venezuela TOTAL: 93 States with 780 Users (Principal Users - 504, Guatemala Regular Users - 200 and Station Operators - 76) Provisional Technical Secretariat Page 22
Thank you Provisional Technical Secretariat Page 23