Effects of Business-as-usual anthropogenic emissions on air quality

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Effects of Business-as-usual anthropogenic emissions on air quality A. Pozzer 1,2, P. Zimmermann 2 U.M. Doering 3,, J. van Aardenne 3,, H. Tost 4, F. Dentener 3 G. Janssens-Maenhout 3, J. Lelieveld 2,5,6 1 The Abdus Salam International center for Theoretical Physics, Earth System Physics, Trieste, Italy 2 Atmospheric Chemistry Department, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany 3 European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy 4 Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Johannes - Gutenberg Universität Mainz, Mainz, Germany 5 The Cyprus Institute, Energy, Environment and Water Research Center, Nicosia, Cyprus 6 King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia Now at: Öko-Institut e.v., Berlin, Germany now at: Air and climate change-mitigation, European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark andrea.pozzer@mpic.de This is the electronic supplement of the article Effects of Business-as-usual anthropogenic emissions on air quality in Atmos. Chem. Phys. (2012), available at: http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net Date: 07/02/2012

2 electronic supplement Table 1: Emissions source and projection from 2005 to 2050 under the assumptions of a business as usual (BaU) scenario. Emissions source sector activity data emission factor power industry CIRCE(2005) scaled with POLES(power) CIRCE(2005) constant manufacturing industry CIRCE(2005) scaled with POLES(industry) CIRCE(2005) constant fuel production & transformation CIRCE(2005) scaled with POLES(fuel production) CIRCE(2005) constant road transport CIRCE(2005) scaled with POLES(road transport) CIRCE(2005) constant aviation CIRCE(2005) scaled with POLES(aviation) CIRCE(2005) constant shipping CIRCE(2005) scaled with POLES(shipping) CIRCE(2005) constant other transport CIRCE(2005) scaled with POLES(other) CIRCE(2005) constant residential combustion CIRCE(2005) scaled with POLES(residential) CIRCE(2005) constant non-metallic mineral production CIRCE(2005) scaled with POLES(cement ind.) CIRCE(2005) constant metal production CIRCE(2005) scaled with POLES(metal industry) CIRCE(2005) constant production of chemicals CIRCE(2005) scaled with POLES(chemical ind.) CIRCE(2005) constant solvents CIRCE(2005) constant CIRCE(2005) scaled with population agricultural soils CIRCE(2005) constant CIRCE(2005) scaled with IMAGE(baseline) manure management CIRCE(2005) constant CIRCE(2005) scaled with IMAGE(baseline) enteric fermentation CIRCE(2005) constant CIRCE(2005) scaled with IMAGE(baseline) agricultural waste burning CIRCE(2005) constant CIRCE(2005) scaled with IMAGE(baseline) waste treatment CIRCE(2005) constant CIRCE(2005) scaled with IMAGE(baseline) Table 2: Sectoral breakdown of the CIRCE emissions for 2005. power industry 30.94 63.29 11.73 2.57 0.10 0.05 manufacturing industry 6.67 16.21 52.16 0.71 0.10 0.09 fuel production & transformation 2.26 7.19 18.26 39.82 0.03 0.00 road transport 24.25 2.07 133.98 21.06 1.37 0.68 other transport (incl. air & sea) 7.00 0.42 14.85 2.77 0.10 0.08 residential combustion 8.42 8.77 262.27 17.52 3.89 10.57 production of non-metallic minerals 5.76 3.98 0.72 0.88 0.00 0.00 metal production 2.65 27.07 42.53 0.20 0.00 0.00 production of chemicals 0.00 2.63 0.00 1.31 0.00 0.00 solvents 0.00 0.00 0.00 24.10 0.00 0.00 agricultural soils 2.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 agricultural waste burning 2.08 0.22 50.43 3.84 0.38 1.81 waste treatment 0.00 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.00 0.00 total anthropogenic 92.33 131.92 587.01 114.85 5.96 13.29 Table 3: Sectoral breakdown of the CIRCE emissions, BaU scenario projection for 2010. power industry 37.41 84.17 14.72 3.25 0.12 0.06 manufacturing industry 7.01 17.65 60.87 0.74 0.11 0.10 fuel production & transformation 2.52 8.00 23.07 37.47 0.04 0.00 road transport 24.09 2.07 135.39 21.48 1.35 0.69 other transport (incl. air & sea) 6.13 0.43 15.73 3.02 0.10 0.08 residential combustion 8.39 8.56 262.66 17.45 3.89 10.58 production of non-metallic minerals 6.02 4.12 0.73 0.89 0.00 0.00 metal production 2.92 28.91 48.41 0.23 0.00 0.00 production of chemicals 0.00 2.75 0.00 1.34 0.00 0.00 solvents 0.00 0.00 0.00 24.93 0.00 0.00 agricultural soils 2.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 agricultural waste burning 2.24 0.24 54.13 4.12 0.41 1.94 waste treatment 0.00 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.00 0.00 total anthropogenic 99.11 156.94 615.78 114.99 6.02 13.46

electronic supplement 3 Table 4: Sectoral breakdown of the CIRCE emissions, BaU scenario projection for 2025. power industry 51.47 110.64 24.45 4.97 0.16 0.07 manufacturing industry 9.42 23.70 96.64 1.04 0.17 0.17 fuel production & transformation 3.41 10.07 34.69 42.87 0.06 0.00 road transport 29.09 2.67 171.23 27.38 1.59 0.89 other transport (incl. air & sea) 8.39 0.55 22.37 4.55 0.13 0.11 residential combustion 10.83 9.60 296.04 19.63 4.32 12.22 production of non-metallic minerals 5.89 4.05 0.73 0.88 0.00 0.00 metal production 2.70 27.91 42.84 0.20 0.00 0.00 production of chemicals 0.00 2.69 0.00 1.32 0.00 0.00 solvents 0.00 0.00 0.00 27.01 0.00 0.00 agricultural soils 2.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 agricultural waste burning 2.39 0.25 57.75 4.39 0.43 2.07 waste treatment 0.00 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.00 0.00 total anthropogenic 126.25 192.19 746.82 134.33 6.85 15.53 Table 5: Sectoral breakdown of the CIRCE emissions, BaU scenario projection for 2050. power industry 85.29 178.94 45.02 9.20 0.27 0.14 manufacturing industry 11.33 27.22 117.73 1.30 0.20 0.28 fuel production & transformation 2.79 8.01 28.36 41.18 0.04 0.00 road transport 27.95 2.60 178.08 28.75 1.40 0.94 other transport (incl. air & sea) 10.75 0.69 29.56 6.24 0.16 0.13 residential combustion 15.56 12.16 363.59 22.76 5.15 15.89 production of non-metallic minerals 5.79 3.99 0.72 0.88 0.00 0.00 metal production 2.63 27.34 41.35 0.20 0.00 0.00 production of chemicals 0.00 2.64 0.00 1.31 0.00 0.00 solvents 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.69 0.00 0.00 agricultural soils 3.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 agricultural waste burning 1.87 0.20 45.18 3.44 0.34 1.62 waste treatment 0.00 3 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.00 0.00 total anthropogenic 167.23 263.86 849.66 144.01 7.56 19.00

4 electronic supplement NO x SO 2 CO BC Figure 1: Anthropogenic emissions in gr/m 2 yr for selected species.

electronic supplement 5 Table 6: PCMPI values for different counties (ranked according to the PCMPI in SC 2005 ). country SC natural SC 2005 SC 2010 SC 2025 SC 2050 country SC natural SC 2005 SC 2010 SC 2025 SC 2050 Niger 1.38 1.51 1.52 1.55 1.57 Yemen -0.41-0.23-0.22-0.19-0.12 Mauritania 1.21 1.30 1.29 1.30 1.33 Uzbekistan -0.50-0.26-0.24-0.21-0.16 Chad 1.12 1.21 1.21 1.23 1.25 Eritrea -0.40-0.26-0.25-0.22-0.17 Egypt 0.67 0.94 0.95 1.01 1.11 Netherlands -0.83-0.27-0.27-0.25-0.21 Iraq 0.44 0.70 0.70 0.73 0.82 Ivory Coast -0.35-0.28-0.28-0.26-0.24 Mali 0.54 0.62 0.61 0.63 0.65 Mongolia -0.43-0.30-0.30-0.27-0.23 Libyan Arab Jamahiriya 0.42 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.67 Myanmar -0.70-0.34-0.32-0.24-0.15 Kuwait 0.21 0.57 0.57 0.60 0.72 Greece -0.66-0.35-0.34-0.33-0.27 Saudi Arabia 0.34 0.56 0.56 0.59 0.66 Bulgaria -0.73-0.35-0.32-0.33-0.24 Nigeria 0.20 0.52 0.52 0.58 0.59 Congo, Democratic Republic -0.45-0.36-0.36-0.35-0.34 Sudan 0.35 0.46 0.46 0.48 0.52 Chile -0.79-0.38-0.35-0.32-0.29 United Arab Emirates 0.16 0.44 0.44 0.49 0.59 Tajikistan -0.60-0.38-0.37-0.34-0.29 Bahrain 0.04 0.40 0.40 0.44 0.56 Cambodia -0.68-0.38-0.37-0.32-0.30 Burkina Faso 0.30 0.40 0.41 0.43 0.45 Kyrgyz Republic -0.56-0.38-0.37-0.34-0.29 Senegal 0.29 0.39 0.39 0.42 0.45 Cyprus -0.62-0.38-0.37-0.32-0.25 China -0.69 0.37 0.47 0.71 0.92 Czech Republic -0.83-0.39-0.38-0.37-0.34 Qatar 0.01 0.36 0.35 0.40 0.51 Italy -0.74-0.39-0.38-0.37-0.33 Pakistan -0.28 0.29 0.29 0.40 0.53 Gibraltar -0.67-0.40-0.39-0.36-0.31 Gambia 0.16 0.25 0.25 0.27 0.30 Turkey -0.67-0.40-0.38-0.32-0.24 Syrian Arab Republic -0.05 0.19 0.21 0.27 0.37 Albania -0.69-0.40-0.38-0.38-0.32 Jordan -0.15 0.18 0.20 0.30 0.47 Poland -0.84-0.40-0.38-0.38-0.36 Guinea-Bissau 0.08 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.21 Indonesia -0.75-0.40-0.40-0.32-0.28 Cameroon 0.04 0.16 0.16 0.19 0.20 San Marino -0.77-0.40-0.39-0.38-0.34 Palestinian Terr. -0.20 0.13 0.16 0.27 0.46 Liberia -0.48-0.42-0.41-0.39-0.38 Korea -0.76 0.11 0.18 0.33 0.46 Taiwan -0.80-0.42-0.37-0.27-0.17 Turkmenistan -0.05 0.08 0.09 0.11 0.15 Azerbaijan -0.61-0.42-0.42-0.38-0.32 Macao -0.79 0.07 0.15 0.35 0.55 Slovenia -0.79-0.42-0.40-0.39-0.35 Israel -0.29 0.05 0.07 0.19 0.38 Macedonia -0.72-0.42-0.40-0.40-0.34 Hong Kong -0.79 0.02 0.10 0.28 0.45 Germany -0.84-0.42-0.42-0.40-0.37 Algeria -0.19 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.09 Thailand -0.76-0.42-0.41-0.32-0.26 Guinea -0.06 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 Japan -0.79-0.42-0.41-0.38-0.35 Benin -0.15-0.01-0.00 0.01 0.03 Slovakia -0.81-0.43-0.40-0.39-0.36 Cape Verde -0.13-0.01-0.00 0.01 0.04 Kazakhstan -0.62-0.43-0.41-0.38-0.33 Togo -0.13-0.02-0.02 0.00 0.02 Spain -0.75-0.43-0.43-0.41-0.37 Oman -0.23-0.03-0.03 0.00 0.07 Croatia -0.77-0.44-0.42-0.41-0.36 Central African Republic -0.11-0.06-0.06-0.05-0.03 Hungary -0.81-0.45-0.42-0.41-0.37 Bangladesh -0.75-0.08-0.05 0.14 0.64 Lao People Democratic Republic -0.74-0.45-0.43-0.36-0.29 Iran -0.30-0.08-0.07-0.04 0.05 Austria -0.82-0.45-0.44-0.42-0.39 India -0.67-0.08-0.04 0.15 0.79 Serbia and Montenegro -0.75-0.45-0.40-0.40-0.34 Lebanon -0.39-0.09-0.08-0.01 0.11 France -0.82-0.45-0.45-0.43-0.39 Tunisia -0.37-0.10-0.09-0.06-0.02 Bhutan -0.76-0.45-0.44-0.35-0.11 Ghana -0.22-0.12-0.12-0.09-0.07 Jersey -0.78-0.46-0.45-0.42-0.37 Dem. Peop. Rep. of Korea -0.74-0.12-0.07 0.06 0.20 Angola -0.52-0.46-0.46-0.44-0.44 Sierra Leone -0.24-0.16-0.16-0.14-0.12 Guernsey -0.77-0.46-0.45-0.42-0.38 Viet Nam -0.80-0.17-0.15-0.00 0.08 Romania -0.78-0.46-0.43-0.43-0.35 Belgium -0.84-0.19-0.18-0.16-0.12 Uganda -0.65-0.46-0.46-0.43-0.39 Nepal -0.70-0.20-0.18-0.05 0.27 Bosnia-Herzegovina -0.75-0.46-0.44-0.43-0.38 Malta -0.49-0.22-0.21-0.19-0.14 Andorra -0.79-0.46-0.46-0.44-0.40 Afghanistan -0.41-0.22-0.22-0.18-0.15 Luxembourg -0.85-0.47-0.47-0.45-0.42 Marocco -0.43-0.22-0.22-0.18-0.12 Armenia -0.67-0.47-0.47-0.44-0.38 Portugal -0.74-0.48-0.48-0.46-0.43 Saint Lucia -0.74-0.65-0.65-0.63-0.61 Ukraine -0.79-0.49-0.45-0.44-0.39 Netherland Antilles -0.74-0.65-0.65-0.63-0.61 Georgia -0.70-0.50-0.49-0.46-0.41 Norway -0.82-0.65-0.65-0.63-0.61 Republic of Moldova -0.79-0.50-0.47-0.46-0.41 Martinique -0.74-0.65-0.65-0.63-0.61 Rwanda -0.73-0.50-0.50-0.46-0.44 Dominican Republic -0.79-0.66-0.65-0.62-0.59 Switzerland -0.82-0.50-0.51-0.49-0.46 Commonwealth of Dominica -0.75-0.66-0.66-0.64-0.61 United States of America -0.81-0.51-0.49-0.47-0.44 French Guiana -0.72-0.66-0.66-0.64-0.62 Zambia -0.62-0.51-0.51-0.49-0.48 Suriname -0.72-0.66-0.66-0.64-0.62 United Kingdom -0.81-0.51-0.51-0.49-0.45 Jamaica -0.79-0.66-0.66-0.63-0.60 Denmark -0.81-0.51-0.50-0.48-0.45 Bermuda -0.80-0.66-0.66-0.63-0.61 Burundi -0.70-0.52-0.51-0.49-0.46 El Salvador -0.81-0.66-0.65-0.63-0.60 Liechtenstein -0.82-0.52-0.52-0.50-0.47 Guadeloupe -0.76-0.66-0.66-0.64-0.62 Singapore -0.73-0.52-0.52-0.47-0.44 Mozambique -0.74-0.66-0.66-0.64-0.63 Russia -0.77-0.52-0.49-0.48-0.43 Kenya -0.82-0.66-0.66-0.63-0.57 Equatorial Guinea -0.60-0.53-0.53-0.51-0.51 Montserrat -0.76-0.66-0.66-0.64-0.62 Ethiopia -0.69-0.53-0.53-0.50-0.46 Paraguay -0.75-0.67-0.66-0.64-0.63 Djibouti -0.68-0.54-0.53-0.50-0.44 Cayman Islands -0.80-0.67-0.66-0.64-0.61 South Africa -0.77-0.55-0.53-0.48-0.40 Antigua and Barbuda -0.76-0.67-0.66-0.64-0.62 Congo -0.64-0.55-0.55-0.54-0.53 Cuba -0.81-0.67-0.66-0.64-0.61 Sri Lanka -0.80-0.56-0.55-0.49-0.42 Saint Kitts and Nevis -0.77-0.67-0.67-0.64-0.62 Isle of Man -0.78-0.56-0.55-0.54-0.51 Puerto Rico -0.78-0.67-0.67-0.64-0.62 Malaysia -0.77-0.57-0.56-0.51-0.47 Belize -0.78-0.67-0.67-0.65-0.62 Mexico -0.81-0.57-0.56-0.52-0.49 Bahamas -0.81-0.67-0.67-0.64-0.61 Belarus -0.83-0.58-0.56-0.54-0.50 Anguilla -0.77-0.67-0.67-0.65-0.63 Peru -0.82-0.58-0.57-0.56-0.54 United States Virgin Islands -0.77-0.67-0.67-0.65-0.63 Lesotho -0.79-0.58-0.57-0.52-0.41 British Virgin Islands -0.78-0.68-0.67-0.65-0.63 Ireland -0.79-0.59-0.58-0.56-0.53 Brunei Darussalam -0.80-0.68-0.68-0.65-0.63 Lithuania -0.84-0.59-0.58-0.56-0.51 United Rep. of Tanzania -0.77-0.68-0.67-0.65-0.62 Malawi -0.70-0.59-0.59-0.57-0.56 Zimbabwe -0.76-0.68-0.67-0.66-0.64 Australia -0.76-0.59-0.59-0.57-0.56 Turks and Caicos Islands -0.80-0.68-0.67-0.65-0.62 Estonia -0.82-0.60-0.59-0.57-0.53 Botswana -0.78-0.68-0.67-0.65-0.60 Canada -0.84-0.60-0.59-0.56-0.53 Guyana -0.74-0.68-0.68-0.66-0.65 Sweden -0.82-0.60-0.59-0.58-0.55 Argentina -0.77-0.68-0.67-0.65-0.64 Latvia -0.83-0.60-0.59-0.56-0.52 Iceland -0.79-0.69-0.68-0.67-0.65 Finland -0.81-0.61-0.60-0.59-0.56 Falkland Islands -0.73-0.69-0.69-0.68-0.67

6 electronic supplement Table 6: Continued. country SC natural SC 2005 SC 2010 SC 2025 SC 2050 country SC natural SC 2005 SC 2010 SC 2025 SC 2050 Faeroe Islands -0.74-0.62-0.62-0.60-0.58 Brazil -0.80-0.70-0.69-0.66-0.64 Guatemala -0.79-0.62-0.62-0.58-0.55 Bolivia -0.76-0.70-0.69-0.68-0.67 Saint Pierre and Miquelon -0.77-0.62-0.62-0.60-0.58 Honduras -0.81-0.70-0.70-0.68-0.65 Namibia -0.68-0.63-0.63-0.61-0.60 Nicaragua -0.81-0.71-0.70-0.68-0.66 Sao Tome and Principe -0.68-0.63-0.63-0.61-0.60 Somalia -0.79-0.71-0.71-0.69-0.65 Swaziland -0.79-0.63-0.62-0.59-0.52 East Timor -0.79-0.72-0.71-0.70-0.68 Venezuela -0.76-0.64-0.64-0.62-0.60 Madagascar -0.79-0.73-0.73-0.71-0.70 Barbados -0.73-0.64-0.64-0.62-0.60 Greenland -0.82-0.73-0.73-0.71-0.69 Gabon -0.70-0.65-0.64-0.63-0.62 Maldives -0.84-0.73-0.73-0.69-0.64 Trinidad and Tobago -0.73-0.65-0.64-0.62-0.60 Panama -0.83-0.73-0.73-0.71-0.68 Saint Vincent -0.73-0.65-0.64-0.62-0.60 Uruguay -0.81-0.73-0.73-0.71-0.70 Philippines -0.84-0.65-0.64-0.60-0.57 Colombia -0.83-0.73-0.73-0.71-0.70 Aruba -0.74-0.65-0.64-0.62-0.60 Norfolk Island -0.79-0.74-0.74-0.72-0.71 Haiti -0.79-0.65-0.64-0.61-0.58 Saint Helena -0.79-0.74-0.74-0.73-0.71 Grenada -0.73-0.65-0.64-0.63-0.60 Svalbard -0.83-0.74-0.74-0.72-0.71 New Zealand -0.80-0.74-0.74-0.72-0.71 Niue -0.85-0.81-0.81-0.80-0.79 Costa Rica -0.84-0.74-0.74-0.72-0.70 Fiji -0.85-0.81-0.81-0.80-0.79 Mauritius -0.80-0.75-0.75-0.74-0.72 Papua New Guinea -0.86-0.82-0.82-0.80-0.79 Reunion -0.81-0.76-0.76-0.74-0.73 French Polynesia -0.86-0.82-0.82-0.81-0.80 Ecuador -0.86-0.76-0.76-0.74-0.73 Marshall Islands -0.88-0.83-0.83-0.82-0.81 New Caledonia -0.81-0.77-0.76-0.75-0.74 Palau -0.90-0.84-0.83-0.82-0.80 Comoros -0.83-0.78-0.78-0.76-0.74 American Samoa -0.88-0.85-0.85-0.84-0.83 Mayotte -0.83-0.78-0.78-0.77-0.75 Federated State of Micronesia -0.90-0.85-0.85-0.83-0.82 Pitcairn -0.83-0.79-0.79-0.78-0.77 Wallis and Futuna -0.88-0.85-0.85-0.84-0.83 Tonga -0.83-0.79-0.79-0.78-0.77 Western Samoa -0.88-0.85-0.85-0.84-0.83 Northern Mariana Islands -0.87-0.79-0.79-0.77-0.74 Solomon Islands -0.89-0.85-0.85-0.84-0.83 Vanuatu -0.83-0.79-0.79-0.78-0.77 Tokelau -0.89-0.85-0.85-0.84-0.83 Seychelles -0.85-0.80-0.79-0.78-0.76 Kiribati -0.90-0.87-0.86-0.86-0.85 Guam -0.88-0.80-0.80-0.78-0.76 Tuvalu -0.90-0.87-0.87-0.86-0.85 Cook Islands -0.85-0.81-0.81-0.79-0.78 Nauru -0.91-0.88-0.88-0.87-0.86

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