Alliance Regulatory and Legislative Forum August, 2015 TexNet and CISR Integrated Seismicity Monitoring and Research in Texas Scott W. Tinker Bureau of Economic Geology University of Texas at Austin
Energy and the Environment Environmental Risks & Perceived Impacts of Unconventionals Traffic/noise/light Surface Groundwater Quakes Health Local and atmospheric emissions Energy Security and Energy Benefits Available Affordable Reliable Jobs, Taxes, Education, Clean Water, Clothing, Housing, Electricity
Environmental Issues Regulatory Considerations Minimize fresh water use on the front end Handle flowback and produced water Minimize methane emissions and flaring Minimize surface impact Mandatory baseline data Cement gas producing zones Full disclosure of chemicals Manage potential induced seismicity after Rao, 2012
U.T. Research Team M.H. Young 1,, E.M. Rathje 2, J.W. Gale 1, P. Eichhubl 1, C. Frohlich 3, J. Walter 3, J.E. Olson 4, H.C. Olson 4, A.B. Markman 5 and S.W. Tinker 1 1 Bureau of Economic Geology 2 Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering 3 U.T. Institute for Geophysics 4 Department of Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering 5 Department of Psychology
Historical Earthquakes in Texas 1978 Snyder M4.6 2013-2015 Azle M3.6 Irving M3.6 Venus M4.0 >M 3.0 2012 Timpson M4.8 1992 Andrews M4.6 1995 Marathon M5.7 2011 Fashing M4.8 Source: earthquake.usgs.gov
Disposal Wells In & Around Texas ~35,000 permitted injection wells in Texas ~7500 permitted disposal wells (UIC Class II) Seismometers for Texas Source: Data from IHS database, 2014
Injection Volumes Barnett Play ~977K bbl/day (~46 kaf/yr) in 2011 of flowback and produced water injected thru ~150 wells Most activity is in a few counties ~4% of total volume injected in TX 2011-12 Azle Parker County Johnson County Montague County Irving DFW Venus Source: Nicot et al, 2014
Magnitude Activity in DFW Area (since 1/13) 4.5 4 3.5 Azle/Reno Venus/Midlothian 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 N=78 Irving 0 1/1/2013 6/30/2013 12/27/2013 6/25/2014 12/22/2014 6/20/2015 Date Data source: IRIS
Legislative Hearings on Seismic Activity
Public/Media Response
Public/Media Response Experts looking for middle ground in earthquake-fracking debate Texas does have a seismic network in the works. Included in a 2016-17 state budget proposal is nearly $2.5 million in funding for TexNet, which includes an additional 22 permanent seismic monitors, plus 36 portable stations that could be deployed if scientists suspect that human activities are inducing tremors. The new stations would enable Texas geologists to detect quakes down to magnitude 2.0 and would double location accuracy, said Scott Tinker, state geologist of Texas and director of the University of Texas at Austin s Bureau of Economic Geology, which would manage the project. February, 2015
Irving Texas 2015 Events Source: DeShon, Stump, et.al, SMU, 2015
Irving Texas 2015 Events Source: DeShon, Stump, et.al, SMU, 2015
Legislative Action on Seismicity
What Does HB2 Authorize/Require? Create monitoring program (TexNet) that includes purchase and deployment of seismic equipment and maintenance of seismic network Analyze seismometer responses to locate earthquakes Model reservoir behavior for systems of wells in the vicinity of faults Establish a technical advisory committee Collaborate with other universities (e.g., TAMU, SMU, Stanford) File a report to Governor s office and legislative committees on spending, activities, and findings
Overarching Goal To determine risk from seismic events to the people and infrastructure of Texas Use data from the TexNet program Use our knowledge of geology, engineering, communications and psychology to develop information of use to stakeholders Build and train the future workforce
TexNet Management TexNet will be managed by the Bureau of Economic Geology, the State Geological Survey of Texas at UT-Austin TexNet Technical Advisory Board, appointed by the Governor of Texas, will be formed, including industry, state, federal and university representatives. TexNet personnel and collaborators will design the permanent array configuration, including phasing the deployment and modifying locations for better source determination.
TexNet Goals The Backbone. Monitor, locate, and catalog seismicity across Texas, capable of detecting and locating earthquakes with magnitudes M2.0 Deployable Array. Improve investigations of ongoing sequences by deploying temporary seismic monitoring stations and conducting site-specific assessments, especially for events >M3.0 in or near urban areas where ongoing human activities may be inducing earthquake activity
TexNet Products Backbone Report accurate earthquake locations When fully operational, TexNet will meet USGS Advanced National Seismic Network standards Raw digital data archived at IRIS Data Management Center National/world archive for seismic data, publicly available) Seismograms at all stations displayed online in near-real time Not for research, but for public outreach. For example, see http://www.ig.utexas.edu/eqdisplay/
TexNet Backbone Operations 38 total permanent seismic monitoring stations locations across Texas Backbone - 22 new stations, added to the 16 existing Final backbone monitoring locations are to be determined based on broad input and discussions (locations shown in graphic are selected sites from USArray Transportable Array) Image courtesy: C. Frohlich
TexNet Products Deployable Array TexNet staff will manage and coordinate deployment and operation of temporary networks deployed in response to earthquake activity deployed for experiments in selected area TexNet staff will perform preliminary location analysis Locations will be available online Data will be available publicly Other possible outcomes TexNet staff will be available to answer the phone TexNet will provide trusted data that can be used by multiple stakeholders, including decision-makers, industry, and the public
TexNet Station Small above-ground presence where sensor installed in shallow borehole Autonomous power and communications Rapidly deployable Permanent station different only in sensor components whole network highly modular Image courtesy: J. Walter
TexNet Advanced data products Focal mechanisms for larger events Texas-specific crustal seismic velocity model Delineate fault planes with better microseismicity locations Train young scientists Undergraduate internships and graduate student projects TexNet and CISR TexNet delineates state seismicity, a fundamental component of CISR research mission TexNet data and results will channel directly into and be a springboard for CISR science
CISR Center for Integrated Seismicity Research Industry, government, and foundation participation and support Multi-disciplinary, trans-college research center, managed by the Bureau of Economic Geology, with the Institute for Geophysics, Petroleum Engineering, Civil Engineering, Communications and Psychology Conduct fundamental and applied research to: Better understand natural and induced earthquakes Quantify the risks associated with these earthquakes Identify strategies for communicating with stakeholders about earthquakes Collaborate with other universities, state surveys & agencies, and scientific organizations Focus on six initial research themes
CISR Data Resources Collect/disseminate data that support research on natural and potentially induced earthquakes Seismology Characterize seismic events, swarms and aftershocks using TexNet Analyze waveforms to infer physics of earthquakes in Texas Geologic Characterization and Seismicity analysis Acquire data on faults, in-situ stress, permeability, injection and production Use data to assess potential for seismic events
CISR Geomechanics and Reservoir Engineering Develop geomechanics approaches and tools to evaluate whether earthquakes are likely to be induced by industrial activities Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment Develop database of shaking from potentially induced and natural earthquakes in Texas Use database to evaluate potential to cause damage to infrastructure Seismic Risk Communication Explore the beliefs, values, and emotions of stakeholder groups Explore methods for delivering science in a format that is responsive to stakeholder beliefs/attitudes
Hazard vs. Risk Seismic Hazard: Expected earthquakes and associated ground shaking Seismic Risk: Potential undesirable consequences from earthquakes Loss of life, injuries Economic losses (repair costs, business interruption) Social consequences Quantifying seismic risk helps communicate with public and with response planning From Ellen Rathje
Seismic Risk Assessment Risk = Hazard Measure of ground shaking and its probability x Exposure Characterization of built environment and inhabitants x Fragility Susceptibility of the exposure to damage/undesirable consequences x Consequence $$, number of people adversely affected Must adapt this framework for induced earthquakes From Ellen Rathje
Undesirable Consequences Must consider infrastructure resilience Haiti EQ (M~7) Darfield NZ (M~7) EQ California EQ (M~3) Texas EQ (M~3) and societal resilience From Ellen Rathje
Current Recruitment Principal Investigator CISR Experienced, PhD level scientist to lead CISR, including TexNet; plan and coordinate research; raise funds; oversea outreach. TexNet Project Manager MS/PhD level scientist to supervise and oversee permitting, installation, operations and maintenance of a statewide seismograph network including both permanent and portable seismograph stations; manage data flow; and, lead reporting. TexNet Technician MS level scientist to participate directly in efforts to permit, install, operate and maintain permanent and portable seismograph stations; manage data flow; and, assist in analyzing earthquake data.
Timeline and Activities 2015-2017 Hire talent Spec, purchase and deploy equipment Establish CISR consortium data workflow for TexNet Coordinate technical workshops Implement CISR research Publish
Academia/NGO Government The Radical Middle Industry Source: Tinker, EARTH, 2013
Academia/NGO Government CISR Industry Source: Tinker, EARTH, 2013