Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update Participating Agencies 255 255 255 237 237 237 0 0 0 217 217 217 163 163 163 200 200 200 131 132 122 239 65 53 80 119 27 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 110 135 120 252 174.59 112 92 56 62 102 130 102 56 48 130 120 111 June 6, 2017 Teleconference #: 888 204 5984 Access #: 3052336 Security Code: 0606 Webinar address: https://www.webmeeting.att.com Webmeeting #: 8882045984 The views, opinions and findings contained in this report are those of the authors(s) and should not be construed as an official Department of the Army position, policy or decision, unless so designated by other official documentation.
WEATHER / CLIMATE Mr. Doug Kluck Climatologist, Central Region Climate Services Director National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Kansas City, MO 2
Conditions Last 30 days http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/index.php 3
Conditions Since January 1 st http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/index.php 4
Mountain Snowpack (snow water equivalent % of normal) https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/west_swepctnormal_update.pdf 5
Total Precipitation Next 7 Days June 6 th 13 th 6
Week 2: Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities June 13 19 Temperature http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/ 7 Precipitation
Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities For June 2017 Temperature http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/ 8 Precipitation
3 Month Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities (June July August) Temperature 9 Precipitation http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1
Drought Update 10 https://www.drought.gov/drought/
Current Conditions Current ENSO condition continued neutral Mountain snowpack much above normal* mainly WY & CO MT mountain snowpack varies from below to above Near normal temperatures for the most part over the last 30 days Somewhat wet from eastern CO, western KS into NE last 30 days Drought conditions developing over Dakotas Predictions Key Points Neutral ENSO next 3 months Temperatures: For June enhanced chances of below normal temps in the Lower MO Basin Equal chances of above, below and near normal for the rest of the summer (June August) Precipitation: For June, slightly better chances of above normal from MO west and north to MT For June through August, enhanced chances of above normal precip across the entire basin Drought: There is concern of drought continuing short term across the Dakotas but no long term prediction of worsening through the summer. 11
BASIN CONDITIONS / FLOOD OUTLOOK Kevin Low Hydrologist, Missouri Basin River Forecast Center National Weather Service Pleasant Hill, MO 12
UPPER MISSOURI RIVER BASIN WATER MANAGEMENT UPDATE FOR 2017 Jody Farhat, P.E., Chief U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Missouri River Basin Water Management 13 12
UPPER BASIN RUNOFF FOR 2017 Kevin Stamm, P.E. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Missouri River Basin Water Management 14 12
Inches of Water Equivalent 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Total above Fort Peck Peaked at 99% of Normal 25% of Peak Remaining Missouri River Basin Mountain Snowpack Water Content June 5, 2017 OND J FMAMJ J AS Inches of Water Equivalent 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Total Fort Peck to Garrison Peaked at 148% of Normal 35% of Peak Remaining OND J FMAMJ J AS 2016-2017 1981-2010 Ave 1997 2011 2016-2017 1981-2010 Ave 1997 2011 The Missouri River Basin mountain snowpack normally peaks near April 15. 15
7 6 5 4 Missouri River Runoff above Sioux City, IA 2017 Forecast 2017 Calendar Year Forecast = 29.9 MAF 3 2 1 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Observed 2017 Forecast Average 16
RESERVOIR SYSTEM REGULATION Joel Knofczynski, P.E. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Missouri River Basin Water Management 17
MISSOURI RIVER MAINSTEM SYSTEM STORAGE ZONES AND ALLOCATIONS Exclusive Flood Control 6% Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use 16% Current Storage Historic max - 2011 Jun 6, 2017 72.8 60.5 Storage In MAF* 72.4 67.7 56.1 Carryover Multiple Use 53% Historic min - 2007 33.9 *Storages updated in August 2013 based on reservoir surveys. Permanent Pool 25% 17.6 18 0
CURRENT RESERVOIR LEVELS JUNE 6, 2017 Fort Peck Exclusive Flood Control Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use Elevation in feet msl Garrison 2250 Exclusive Flood Control 2246 2239.3 Annual Flood Control & 1843.4 Multiple Use 2234 2220.1 2220.1 Elevation in feet msl 1854 1850 1837.5 Carryover Multiple Use Carryover Multiple Use Exclusive Flood Control Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use Permanent Pool 5.3 feet above base of Flood Control zone Oahe 2220.1 2160 2030 Permanent Pool 5.9 feet above base of Flood Control zone Elevation in feet msl Fort Randall 1620 Exclusive Flood Control 1617 1610.1 Annual Flood Control & 1354.7 Multiple Use 1607.5 2220.1 1775 1673 Elevation in feet msl 1375 1365 1350 Carryover Multiple Use Carryover Multiple Use Permanent Pool 2.6 feet above base of Flood Control zone 19 1540 1415 Permanent Pool 4.7 feet above base of Flood Control zone 1320 1240
KEY POINTS Currently, 11.9 MAF of 16.3 MAF of flood storage space is available. Full navigation season. Full service flow support for season. Annual power production of 10.5 BKWhrs (average is 9.3 BKWhrs) Good service to all authorized purposes. 20
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JULY S UPDATE Thursday, July 6, 2017 1:00 pm CDT 22
CONTACT INFORMATION Name Office Email Address Phone Number Eileen Williamson Doug Kluck Kevin Low Jody Farhat Kevin Stamm Joel Knofczynski USACE, NWD Public Affairs Office NOAA, Kansas City, Climatologist National Weather Service, Hydrologist USACE, Chief, Missouri River Basin Water Management USACE, MRBWM, Hydraulic Engineer USACE, MRBWM, Hydraulic Engineer Eileen.L.Williamson@usace.army.mil 402-996-3802 Doug.Kluck@noaa.gov 816-994-3008 Kevin.Low@noaa.gov Jody.S.Farhat@usace.army.mil 402-996-3840 Kevin.D.Stamm@usace.army.mil 402-996-3874 Joel.D.Knofczynski@usace.army.mil 402-996-3852 23