T-storm Weather Summary A small but key corn and soybean area in western Argentina was wetter than expected overnight. T-storms affect varying areas of South America at varying times into January, but above-normal rainfall is only likely in southern Brazil (and Paraguay); near- or below-normal rainfall probable elsewhere. Southern Brazil needs this rain because it accounts for the primary reason that 66% and 51% of Brazil's first-crop corn and soybean production were drier than normal over the last two weeks (as of Tuesday). Otherwise, U.S. cattle and HRW wheat turn sharply colder, and the low potential for a winter storm persists in the central U.S. next week. T-storm Weather Highlights A small but heavy overnight t-storm cluster affected key corn and soybean area in Cordoba and Santa Fe. No change: scattered t-storms dot Argentina through Fri.-Sat., followed by five to seven days of dry weather. No change: scattered t-storms return to Argentina late next week or weekend (within Dec. 29 - Jan. 3). No change: frequent t-storms produce above-normal rainfall in driest areas of southern Brazil and Paraguay. NO change: northern areas of Brazil will be drier than normal over the next week, then turn wetter. No change: some burnback or winterkill remain plausible in South Dakota Monday morning. Model Notes None. Page 2 3 4 5+ Description South America Discussion United States Discussion Today's Normal Crop Phase Table Supporting Pages 1
SOUTH AMERICA DISCUSSION Weather Outlook In Argentina, scattered t-storms continue through Fri.-Sat. as a cool front approaches and dissipates. Except for a small but important pocket of heavy rain from ongoing t-storms in parts of Cordoba and Santa Fe, only scattered 0.50 to 1.00 amounts are likely due to limited humidity. Five to seven days of dry and seasonable weather follow as surface-level high pressure passes. Thereafter, another system is likely to pass next weekend and / or the early the following week (within Dec. 29 - Jan. 3), triggering scattered t-storms with 0.50 to 1.50 most probable. ~2.00 is normal of the next two weeks, indicating additional rainfall may be needed in early January especially in Buenos Aires. Southern Brazil and Paraguay will be the primary beneficiary of the weather pattern as numerous cool fronts sweep northward and dissipate over the next 10 to 14 days, triggering t-storms and resulting in generalized rainfall of 3.00 to 5.00 ; best chances are each day through Sat.-Sun., then at varying times from next week forward. Normal rainfall is ~2.25 for the period, indicating topsoil and subsoil dryness will improve through early January. Northern areas of Brazil will be considerably drier than normal over the next week as upper-level high pressure only allows widely-scattered t-storms to form, most notably leaving Bahia and / or Minas Gerais fairly dry for this time of year. That said, a stormy period follows from late next week forward as the upper-level high relaxes and allows cool fronts to sweep into the region and trigger t-storms, ultimately producing 2.00 to 4.00 of rain over Dec. 28 - Jan. 4, but likely leaving some crops drier than normal for the upcoming two-week period because ~4.50 is normal through then. Recent Weather A heavy t-storm cluster developed in southwest Arg. overnight, bringing more rain than was expected to La Pampa and southwest Cordoba (~1.00 to ~2.00 ), which includes a concentrated grain and oilseed area. Some t-storms also dotted southern Brazil where temperatures were unseasonably cool. Crop and Soil Moisture Discussion T-storms having been improving topsoil moisture in Argentina in recent days, but more were needed as of Tue. morning (and some occurred) because ~60% of first-crop corn and soybean production had been drier than normal over the last 14 days, and ~85% over the last 30 days. Brazil was not as nearly as dry, but limited rainfall in recent weeks in central and southern areas was increasing dryness with 53% and 46% of each crop having been drier than normal over the period. Argentina Brazil Proportion of National Production By Region Argentina Corn (1 st ) Corn (2 nd ) Soy. Sunflower Wheat Central 54% 56% 13% 36% North 13% 8% 13% 4% South 31% 36% 74% 59% Brazil Region Center-West 13% 66% 49% 2% Northeast 11% 4% 8% 0% South 43% 23% 33% 95% Southeast 30% 5% 6% 4% Data sources: Argentina Ministry of Ag., Livestock and Fish. (2010/11-2014/15), Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (2012-14) Click here to review detailed crop production maps for Argentina and Brazil. 2
UNITED STATES DISCUSSION Central U.S. Weather Outlook Unseasonable mildness breaks from northwest to southeast through Sat. as the first in a series of Arctic cold fronts blast southward. Temperatures turn progressively colder through early next week, leading to the potential for some burnback or winterkill in snow-free areas of the northern Plains as minimums fall into the -0s and -10s, most notably in South Dakota where ~6% of U.S. HRW wheat is produced. The temperature forecast turns complex from the middle of next week forward as Arctic air lingers and a large system interact to the west. The exact setup is unclear, but regardless of exactly how the system unfolds, a change to seasonable and mild weather is least likely; a continuation of below-normal temperatures is most likely across a wide area through the end of the year with maximums mostly in the 10s, 20s, and 30s, and minimums in the -0s, +0s, and +10s. Some pockets of light snow fall as the colder pattern assembles over the next several days, but a winter storm does not affect cattle and HRW wheat with best chances within the northern half of the Plains and northwest two-thirds of the Corn Belt. The atmospheric setup becomes conducive to a large winter storm in the central or eastern U.S. from the middle of next week forward as a large system develops to the west, but dependent on the southern extent of Arctic air. The exact setup will not be resolved for several days, but the highest overall chance for a notable storm is in the Corn Belt, Delta, and / or points east; lowest chances are in cattle and HRW wheat areas of the Plains where precipitation is most likely to remain limited. Recent Weather Mild weather continued in cattle and HRW wheat areas of the central and southern Plains yesterday, while a swath of heavy snow affected North Dakota and Montana. Crop and Soil Moisture Overview The central and southern Plains were unusually dry over the last 60 days with little or no precipitation having fallen, leaving 83% of HRW wheat drier than normal. Central and Eastern United States Proportion of National Production By Region Region Corn Soy. HRW Wheat SRW Wheat Spring Wheat Corn Belt 63% 61% 2% 47% 13% Delta 5% 11% 0% 25% 0% Plains Central 17% 12% 56% 0% 0% North 8% 10% 18% 0% 73% South 2% 0% 22% 0% 0% East / Southeast 5% 5% 0% 28% 0% Other 0% 0% 0% 13% Data source: USDA (2011-2015) Click here to review our county-level corn, soybean, and wheat production maps over 2011-2015. 3
TODAY'S NORMAL CROP PHASE Argentina Brazil United States Crop Normal Crop Normal Crop Normal Crop Crop Crop Phase Phase Phase Corn, Early-Planted Corn, Late-Planted Silking Planting Corn, First Crop Corn, Second Crop Silking / Filling Out of Season Corn Out of Season Soybeans, First Crop Soybeans, Second Crop Vegetative Out of Season Soybeans, Northern Areas Soybeans, Southern Areas Flowering Flowering Soybeans Out of Season Sunflowers Veg. / Rep. / Maturing Spring Wheat Out of Season Winter Wheat Harvesting Winter Wheat Out of Season Source: Various USDA website sources Hard Red Winter Wheat Soft Red Winter Wheat Dormant Dormant 4
The South America section begins on the next page 5
CORN (CROP #1) PERIOD (SOIL PROXY) LAST 7 DAYS (HIGH TOPSOIL) LAST 14 DAYS (TOPSOIL) LAST 30 DAYS (SUBSOIL) LAST 60 DAYS (DEEP SUBSOIL) LAST 90 DAYS (AG. DROUGHT) PRECIPITATION (PERCENT OF NORMAL), WEIGHTED BY ARGENTINA CROP PRODUCTION 2014/15-2016/17 COUNTY-LEVEL PRODUCTION WEIGHTED BY A PRECIPITATION GRID, 33% VALID TWO DAYS AGO (12/19/17) AT 6 AM CST (1200 UTC) 60% 68% 15% 86% 52% 35% 30% 13% 5% 1% 1% CORN (CROP #2) LAST 7 DAYS (HIGH TOPSOIL) LAST 14 DAYS (TOPSOIL) LAST 30 DAYS (SUBSOIL) LAST 60 DAYS (DEEP SUBSOIL) LAST 90 DAYS (AG. DROUGHT) 78% 7% 16% 88% 11% 1% 89% 11% 0% 64% 36% 0% SOYBEANS LAST 7 DAYS (HIGH TOPSOIL) LAST 14 DAYS (TOPSOIL) LAST 30 DAYS (SUBSOIL) LAST 60 DAYS (DEEP SUBSOIL) LAST 90 DAYS (AG. DROUGHT) 44% 13% 43% 64% 33% 4% 83% 16% 1% 68% 31% 1% SUNFLOWER WINTER WHEAT LAST 7 DAYS (HIGH TOPSOIL) LAST 14 DAYS (TOPSOIL) LAST 30 DAYS (SUBSOIL) LAST 60 DAYS (DEEP SUBSOIL) LAST 90 DAYS (AG. DROUGHT) LAST 7 DAYS (HIGH TOPSOIL) LAST 14 DAYS (TOPSOIL) LAST 30 DAYS (SUBSOIL) LAST 60 DAYS (DEEP SUBSOIL) LAST 90 DAYS (AG. DROUGHT) 36% 56% 41% DROUG 0.154458284 59% SUBSOI 0.127477536 0.188048366 DRY (less than 75% of average) WET (more than 125% of average) 21% 39% 0.482994685 0.362547031 35% 6% 0.66729315 0.472783898 0.064914897 0.668566525 0.399738566 0.267791952 85% 0.143385109 11% 4% NORMAL (75% to 125% of average) Data is developed with a proprietary geographic information system analysis of Argentina M inistry of Agriculture department-level crop production data weighted by precipitation grids from the Climate Prediction Center and World Ag Weather. Production data is averaged for each county over the last three years to develop weights and includes at least 99% of production each year. Corn Crop #1 is defined as total corn planted prior to December (production data was weighted by approximate planted area via Weekly Grain Reports from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange over the last three years); Corn Crop #2 is total corn planted in December or later. "Dry", "Normal", and "Wet" are crops that received less than 75%, 75% - 125%, and more than 125% of its average precipitation. 63% 90% 56% 14% 54% 27% 40% 30% 1% 10% 9% 10% 4% 6
CORN (CROP #1) PERIOD LAST 7 DAYS LAST 14 DAYS LAST 30 DAYS LAST 60 DAYS LAST 90 DAYS PRECIPITATION (PERCENT OF NORMAL), WEIGHTED BY BRAZIL CROP PRODUCTION 2013/14-2015/16 COUNTY-LEVEL PRODUCTION WEIGHTED BY A PRECIPITATION GRID, 22% VALID TWO DAYS AGO (12/19/17) AT 6 AM CST (1200 UTC) 53% 66% 77% 60% 40% 25% 11% 17% 12% 10% 7% CORN (CROP #2) LAST 7 DAYS LAST 14 DAYS LAST 30 DAYS LAST 60 DAYS LAST 90 DAYS 66% 20% 14% 50% 36% 14% 40% 54% 6% 15% 56% 29% SOYBEANS SUGAR LAST 7 DAYS LAST 14 DAYS LAST 30 DAYS LAST 60 DAYS LAST 90 DAYS LAST 7 DAYS LAST 14 DAYS LAST 30 DAYS LAST 60 DAYS LAST 90 DAYS 65% 21% 13% 51% 35% 14% 46% 48% 6% 21% 57% 22% 88% 5% 8% DROUG 0.154458284 0.482994685 72% 0.362547031 17% 11% 0.127477536 0.66729315 0.188048366 0.472783898 0.064914897 0.668566525 0.399738566 0.267791952 SUBSOI 45% 31% 0.143385109 23% 17% 60% 23% DRY (less than 75% of average) WET (more than 125% of average) NORMAL (75% to 125% of average) Data is developed with a proprietary Geographic Information System analysis of Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics municipality-level crop production data weighted by precipitation grids from the Climate Prediction Center and World Ag Weather. Production data is averaged for each county over the last three years to develop weights and include at least 99%, 98%, and 97% of corn, soybean, and sugar production. "Dry", "Normal", and "Wet" are crops that received less than 75%, 75% - 125%, and more than 125% of its average precipitation. 7
8
9
Yesterday s Minimum Temperature Yesterday s Maximum Temperature 10
The United States section begins on the next page 11
UNITED STATES AND SOUTH AMERICA Email: weather@tstorm.net Chart not available today 12
Yesterday s Minimum Temperature Yesterday s Maximum Temperature 13
WINTER WHEAT (HARD RED) WINTER WHEAT (SOFT RED) PERIOD (SOIL PROXY) LAST 7 DAYS (HIGH TOPSOIL) LAST 14 DAYS (TOPSOIL) LAST 30 DAYS (SUBSOIL) LAST 60 DAYS (DEEP SUBSOIL) LAST 90 DAYS (AG. DROUGHT) LAST 180 DAYS (DROUGHT) LAST 7 DAYS (HIGH TOPSOIL) LAST 14 DAYS (TOPSOIL) LAST 30 DAYS (SUBSOIL) LAST 60 DAYS (DEEP SUBSOIL) LAST 90 DAYS (AG. DROUGHT) LAST 180 DAYS (DROUGHT) PRECIPITATION (PERCENT OF NORMAL), WEIGHTED BY U.S. PRODUCTION 2011-2015 COUNTY-LEVEL PRODUCTION WEIGHTED BY 4-KM 2 PRECIPITATION GRIDS, AS OF YESTERDAY AT 7 AM CDT (1200 UTC) 15% 22% 66% 17% 17% DROUG 0.154458284 85% 0.482994685 0.362547031 14% 1% 0.127477536 0.66729315 0.188048366 0.472783898 0.064914897 0.668566525 0.399738566 0.267791952 SUBSOI 50% 39% 0.143385109 12% DRY (less than 75% of average) WET (more than 125% of average) NORMAL (75% to 125% of average) Data is developed with a proprietary geographic information system analysis of USDA county-level crop production data weighted by 4-km by 4-km precipitation grids. Production data is averaged for each county over the last five years to develop weights and included at least 99% of production each year. HRW wheat is defined as winter wheat in and adjacent the Plains; SRW wheat is defined as winter wheat along and east of the Mississippi River. "Dry", "Normal", and "Wet" are crops that received less than 75%, 75% - 125%, and more than 125% of its average precipitation. 71% 80% 82% 83% 44% 63% 15% 57% 77% TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE ( F), WEIGHTED BY U.S. CROP PRODUCTION FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE COUNTY- AND DISTRICT-LEVEL PRODUCTION WEIGHTED BY THE CONTOURED MEAN OF THE 1) 6-HOUR MINIMUM ENDING AT 7 AM CENTRAL TIME, AND 2) 6-HOUR MAXIMUM ENDING AT 7 PM CENTRAL TIME, COMPARED TO THE CROP-WEIGHTED NORMAL FOR THE DAY 77% 9% 36% 6% 35% 8% 8% 9% 20% 22% 14% 15% 11% 9% 7% 8% --- DEPARTURE FROM 30-YEAR NORMAL --- --- DEPARTURE FROM LAST YEAR --- YESTERDAY +9.4 +5.0 YESTERDAY HRW WHEAT LAST 7 DAYS +8.9 +19.1 LAST 7 DAYS LAST 14 DAYS +8.0 +17.8 LAST 14 DAYS LAST 30 DAYS +8.7 +11.6 LAST 30 DAYS LAST 60 DAYS +3.9 +0.8 LAST 60 DAYS DECEMBER +7.9 +14.8 DECEMBER -5 0 +5 +10 +15-5 0 +5 +10 +15 +20 SRW WHEAT YESTERDAY +9.0 +16.7 YESTERDAY LAST 7 DAYS +3.7 +11.7 LAST 7 DAYS LAST 14 DAYS -0.6 +5.1 LAST 14 DAYS LAST 30 DAYS +1.7 +3.4 LAST 30 DAYS LAST 60 DAYS 0.0-1.3 LAST 60 DAYS DECEMBER +1.4 +5.0 DECEMBER -5 0 +5 +10 +15-5 0 +5 +10 +15 +20 Data is developed with a proprietary geographic information system analysis of United States Department of Agriculture county-level crop production data weighted by contoured daily temperature from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and 1981-2010 maximum and minimum temperature normals from PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, http://prism.oregonstate.edu. Production data is averaged for each U.S. county over the last five years to develop weights and includes at least 99% of production each year. HRW wheat is defined as winter wheat in and adjacent the Plains; PNW wheat is winter wheat in ID, OR, WA; SRW wheat is defined as winter wheat along and east of the M ississippi River. 14
UNITED STATES AND SOUTH AMERICA Email: weather@tstorm.net 15