T-storm Weather Summary T-storms affect all growing areas of South America at one time or another over the next two weeks, but abovenormal rainfall is only likely for corn and soybeans in southern Brazil and Paraguay. Instead, limited rainfall over the next week leaves northern areas of Brazil drier than normal for the period, and near- and below-normal rainfall in Argentina maintains a scenario in which more rains may still be needed in January. Otherwise, cattle and HRW wheat in the U.S. turn cold from late-week forward, but a major winter storm is not imminent; some burnback and / or winterkill remain probable in South Dakota early next week. T-storm Weather Highlights Slightly drier: 1.00 to 2.00 of rain in northern Argentina contrasts with 0.50 to 1.00 elsewhere through Sat. No change: scattered t-storms return to Argentina next weekend (Dec. 29 - Jan. 3); 0.50 to 1.50 probable. Slightly wetter: 2.50 to 5.00 of rain affects southern Brazil and Paraguay over the next two weeks. No change: northern areas of Brazil will be considerably drier than normal over the next week. No change: a stormier pattern returns to northern areas of Brazil from late next week forward. The threat of a winter storm exists (but is low) within next Tue.-Fri. across the central U.S. Model Notes None. Page 2 3 4 5+ Description South America Discussion United States Discussion Today's Normal Crop Phase Table Supporting Pages 1
SOUTH AMERICA DISCUSSION Weather Outlook In Argentina, scattered t-storms occur over the next few days, especially Friday when a strong cool front sweeps northward. That said, the forecast is drier than previously due to limited humidity, which should keep 1.00 to 2.00 totals limited to northern areas with 0.50 to 1.00 elsewhere. Five to seven days of dry and seasonable weather follow as surface-level high pressure passes, causing topsoil and / or subsoil dryness to continue or increase. That said, another storm system remains likely to pass next weekend and / or the early the following week (within Dec. 29 - Jan. 3), triggering scattered t-storms with 0.50 to 1.50 most probable. ~2.00 is normal of the next two weeks, which is approximately expected north, but less-so in central and southern areas (driest in much of Buenos Aires and La Pampa). Southern Brazil and Paraguay will be the primary beneficiary of the weather pattern as numerous cool fronts sweep northward and dissipate over the next 10 to 14 days, continuing to produce pockets of t- storms most days, and resulting in generalized rainfall of 3.00 to 5.00. Normal rainfall is ~2.25 for the period, indicating that both topsoil and subsoil dryness will improve through early January. Northern areas of Brazil will be considerably drier than normal over the next week as upper-level high pressure only allows widely-scattered t-storms to form, most notably leaving Bahia and Minas Gerais very dry for this time of year. However, a stormy period most likely follows from late next week forward as the upper-level high relaxes and allows cool fronts to sweep further north and trigger t-storms, ultimately producing 2.00 to 4.00 of rain over Dec. 28 - Jan. 3, but still leaving crops drier than normal for the upcoming two-week period because ~4.50 is normal through then. Recent Weather Scattered t-storms focused on South Brazil and Paraguay yesterday, while most other areas were dry. Temperatures were very cool in Argentina where cloudiness kept maximums in the 70s. Crop and Soil Moisture Discussion Heavy rainfall last weekend aided ~50% of first-crop corn and soybeans in Argentina, but considerably more was needed (as of Mon. morning) because 30-day dryness barely diminished, leaving 88% and 86% drier than normal over the period. Brazil was not as nearly as dry over the last 30 days, but 68% and 53% of each crop were drier than normal over the last 14 days from a lack of rain in southern areas (and Paraguay), leaving 50% and 42% drier than normal over the last 30 days. Argentina Brazil Proportion of National Production By Region Argentina Corn (1 st ) Corn (2 nd ) Soy. Sunflower Wheat Central 54% 56% 13% 36% North 13% 8% 13% 4% South 31% 36% 74% 59% Brazil Region Center-West 13% 66% 49% 2% Northeast 11% 4% 8% 0% South 43% 23% 33% 95% Southeast 30% 5% 6% 4% Data sources: Argentina Ministry of Ag., Livestock and Fish. (2010/11-2014/15), Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (2012-14) Click here to review detailed crop production maps for Argentina and Brazil. 2
UNITED STATES DISCUSSION Central U.S. Weather Outlook Unseasonable mildness continues today, then breaks Thu.-Fri. in the Plains and northwest Corn Belt, and Fri.-Sat. elsewhere as the first in a series of Arctic cold fronts blast southward. A cold pattern follows and lasts through at least early January as reinforcing shots of Arctic air pass every few days, ultimately leaving most areas 10 F to 20 F colder than normal with maximums in the 10s-20s and minimums in the 0s-10s in key cattle and HRW wheat areas from Nebraska and points south. Notably, intense coldness is probable in the northern Plains at times next week, dropping minimums into -0s and -10s in snow-free areas of the Dakotas, introducing the probability for some burnback and winterkill (especially in South Dakota where ~6% of U.S. HRW wheat is produced). Two rounds of heavy rain affect the Delta through Saturday when systems pass in the transition to the cold weather pattern, producing unseasonably heavy totals of 2.00 to 4.00 within SRW wheat areas. Some rain and snow also affect SRW wheat in the southeast third of the Corn Belt Fri.-Sat., but outside of a swath of snow through tomorrow in Montana and North Dakota, dry weather prevails, and a swath of light snow from Nebraska through the Corn Belt Sat.-Sun., mainly dry weather prevails through the weekend. The exact setup next week is highly uncertain, as it is unclear how a system in the West will interact with Arctic air. A low chance for a winter storm exists within next Tue.-Fri. across a large area (including driest cattle and HRW wheat areas of the central and southern Plains), but the exact setup will take many days to resolve. Recent Weather Heavy rain affected SRW wheat within the southern half of the Delta yesterday, but missed most HRW wheat in Oklahoma and Texas. Temperatures were mild across a wide area, leaving HRW wheat and SRW wheat +10 F and +12 F from normal. Crop and Soil Moisture Overview The central and southern Plains were unusually dry over the last 60 days with little or no precipitation having fallen, leaving 85% of HRW wheat drier than normal. Central and Eastern United States Proportion of National Production By Region Region Corn Soy. HRW Wheat SRW Wheat Spring Wheat Corn Belt 63% 61% 2% 47% 13% Delta 5% 11% 0% 25% 0% Plains Central 17% 12% 56% 0% 0% North 8% 18% 0% 73% South 2% 0% 22% 0% 0% East / Southeast 5% 5% 0% 28% 0% Other 0% 0% 0% 13% Data source: USDA (2011-2015) Click here to review our county-level corn, soybean, and wheat production maps over 2011-2015. 3
TODAY'S NORMAL CROP PHASE Argentina Brazil United States Crop Normal Crop Normal Crop Normal Crop Crop Crop Phase Phase Phase Corn, Early-Planted Corn, Late-Planted Silking Planting Corn, First Crop Corn, Second Crop Silking / Filling Out of Season Corn Out of Season Soybeans, First Crop Soybeans, Second Crop Vegetative Out of Season Soybeans, Northern Areas Soybeans, Southern Areas Flowering Flowering Soybeans Out of Season Sunflowers Veg. / Rep. / Maturing Spring Wheat Out of Season Winter Wheat Harvesting Winter Wheat Out of Season Source: Various USDA website sources Hard Red Winter Wheat Soft Red Winter Wheat Dormant Dormant 4
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CORN (CROP #1) PERIOD (SOIL PROXY) LAST 7 DAYS (HIGH TOPSOIL) LAST 14 DAYS (TOPSOIL) LAST 30 DAYS (SUBSOIL) LAST 60 DAYS (DEEP SUBSOIL) LAST 90 DAYS (AG. DROUGHT) PRECIPITATION (PERCENT OF NORMAL), WEIGHTED BY ARGENTINA CROP PRODUCTION 2014/15-2016/17 COUNTY-LEVEL PRODUCTION WEIGHTED BY A PRECIPITATION GRID, VALID TWO DAYS AGO (12/18/17) AT 6 AM CST (1200 UTC) 42% 66% 68% 88% 14% 44% 29% 30% 5% 1% 1% CORN (CROP #2) LAST 7 DAYS (HIGH TOPSOIL) LAST 14 DAYS (TOPSOIL) LAST 30 DAYS (SUBSOIL) LAST 60 DAYS (DEEP SUBSOIL) LAST 90 DAYS (AG. DROUGHT) 80% 5% 15% 87% 12% 1% 89% 11% 0% 63% 36% 0% SOYBEANS LAST 7 DAYS (HIGH TOPSOIL) LAST 14 DAYS (TOPSOIL) LAST 30 DAYS (SUBSOIL) LAST 60 DAYS (DEEP SUBSOIL) LAST 90 DAYS (AG. DROUGHT) 51% 39% 69% 28% 4% 86% 13% 1% 68% 31% 1% SUNFLOWER WINTER WHEAT LAST 7 DAYS (HIGH TOPSOIL) LAST 14 DAYS (TOPSOIL) LAST 30 DAYS (SUBSOIL) LAST 60 DAYS (DEEP SUBSOIL) LAST 90 DAYS (AG. DROUGHT) LAST 7 DAYS (HIGH TOPSOIL) LAST 14 DAYS (TOPSOIL) LAST 30 DAYS (SUBSOIL) LAST 60 DAYS (DEEP SUBSOIL) LAST 90 DAYS (AG. DROUGHT) 36% 58% 45% DROUG 0.154458284 62% SUBSOI 0.127477536 0.188048366 DRY (less than 75% of average) WET (more than 125% of average) 20% 35% 0.482994685 0.362547031 32% 6% 0.66729315 0.472783898 0.064914897 0.668566525 0.399738566 0.267791952 87% 0.143385109 4% NORMAL (75% to 125% of average) Data is developed with a proprietary geographic information system analysis of Argentina M inistry of Agriculture department-level crop production data weighted by precipitation grids from the Climate Prediction Center and World Ag Weather. Production data is averaged for each county over the last three years to develop weights and includes at least 99% of production each year. Corn Crop #1 is defined as total corn planted prior to December (production data was weighted by approximate planted area via Weekly Grain Reports from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange over the last three years); Corn Crop #2 is total corn planted in December or later. "Dry", "Normal", and "Wet" are crops that received less than 75%, 75% - 125%, and more than 125% of its average precipitation. 63% 90% 56% 13% 54% 27% 40% 30% 1% 9% 4% 6
CORN (CROP #1) PERIOD LAST 7 DAYS LAST 14 DAYS LAST 30 DAYS LAST 60 DAYS LAST 90 DAYS PRECIPITATION (PERCENT OF NORMAL), WEIGHTED BY BRAZIL CROP PRODUCTION 2013/14-2015/16 COUNTY-LEVEL PRODUCTION WEIGHTED BY A PRECIPITATION GRID, 22% VALID TWO DAYS AGO (12/18/17) AT 6 AM CST (1200 UTC) 50% 68% 77% 60% 41% 21% 18% 13% 11% 9% CORN (CROP #2) LAST 7 DAYS LAST 14 DAYS LAST 30 DAYS LAST 60 DAYS LAST 90 DAYS 73% 16% 51% 34% 14% 32% 58% 15% 51% 33% SOYBEANS SUGAR LAST 7 DAYS LAST 14 DAYS LAST 30 DAYS LAST 60 DAYS LAST 90 DAYS LAST 7 DAYS LAST 14 DAYS LAST 30 DAYS LAST 60 DAYS LAST 90 DAYS 70% 12% 18% 53% 32% 15% 42% 49% 9% 21% 55% 25% 89% 3% 9% DROUG 0.154458284 0.482994685 74% 0.362547031 14% 11% 0.127477536 0.66729315 0.188048366 0.472783898 0.064914897 0.668566525 0.399738566 0.267791952 SUBSOI 34% 41% 0.143385109 25% 17% 60% 23% DRY (less than 75% of average) WET (more than 125% of average) NORMAL (75% to 125% of average) Data is developed with a proprietary Geographic Information System analysis of Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics municipality-level crop production data weighted by precipitation grids from the Climate Prediction Center and World Ag Weather. Production data is averaged for each county over the last three years to develop weights and include at least 99%, 98%, and 97% of corn, soybean, and sugar production. "Dry", "Normal", and "Wet" are crops that received less than 75%, 75% - 125%, and more than 125% of its average precipitation. 7
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UNITED STATES AND SOUTH AMERICA Email: weather@tstorm.net Chart not available today 12
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WINTER WHEAT (HARD RED) WINTER WHEAT (SOFT RED) PERIOD (SOIL PROXY) LAST 7 DAYS (HIGH TOPSOIL) LAST 14 DAYS (TOPSOIL) LAST 30 DAYS (SUBSOIL) LAST 60 DAYS (DEEP SUBSOIL) LAST 90 DAYS (AG. DROUGHT) LAST 180 DAYS (DROUGHT) LAST 7 DAYS (HIGH TOPSOIL) LAST 14 DAYS (TOPSOIL) LAST 30 DAYS (SUBSOIL) LAST 60 DAYS (DEEP SUBSOIL) LAST 90 DAYS (AG. DROUGHT) LAST 180 DAYS (DROUGHT) PRECIPITATION (PERCENT OF NORMAL), WEIGHTED BY U.S. PRODUCTION 2011-2015 COUNTY-LEVEL PRODUCTION WEIGHTED BY 4-KM 2 PRECIPITATION GRIDS, AS OF YESTERDAY AT 7 AM CDT (1200 UTC) 16% 23% 72% 14% 14% DROUG 0.154458284 0.482994685 91% 0.362547031 9% 0% 0.127477536 0.66729315 0.188048366 0.472783898 0.064914897 0.668566525 0.399738566 0.267791952 SUBSOI 55% 34% 0.143385109 11% DRY (less than 75% of average) WET (more than 125% of average) NORMAL (75% to 125% of average) Data is developed with a proprietary geographic information system analysis of USDA county-level crop production data weighted by 4-km by 4-km precipitation grids. Production data is averaged for each county over the last five years to develop weights and included at least 99% of production each year. HRW wheat is defined as winter wheat in and adjacent the Plains; SRW wheat is defined as winter wheat along and east of the Mississippi River. "Dry", "Normal", and "Wet" are crops that received less than 75%, 75% - 125%, and more than 125% of its average precipitation. 76% 84% 85% 84% 44% 63% 15% 57% 85% 75% TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE ( F), WEIGHTED BY U.S. CROP PRODUCTION FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE COUNTY- AND DISTRICT-LEVEL PRODUCTION WEIGHTED BY THE CONTOURED MEAN OF THE 1) 6-HOUR MINIMUM ENDING AT 7 AM CENTRAL TIME, AND 2) 6-HOUR MAXIMUM ENDING AT 7 PM CENTRAL TIME, COMPARED TO THE CROP-WEIGHTED NORMAL FOR THE DAY 36% 33% 7% 8% 9% 21% 9% 15% 9% 5% 8% 7% 6% --- DEPARTURE FROM 30-YEAR NORMAL --- --- DEPARTURE FROM LAST YEAR --- YESTERDAY +10.3 +20.7 YESTERDAY HRW WHEAT LAST 7 DAYS +9.4 +21.6 LAST 7 DAYS LAST 14 DAYS +7.3 +17.9 LAST 14 DAYS LAST 30 DAYS +8.7 +11.6 LAST 30 DAYS LAST 60 DAYS +3.9 +0.9 LAST 60 DAYS DECEMBER +7.8 +15.3 DECEMBER -5 0 +5 +10 +15-10 0 +10 +20 +30 SRW WHEAT YESTERDAY +12.0 +27.0 YESTERDAY LAST 7 DAYS +1.6 +8.7 LAST 7 DAYS LAST 14 DAYS -1.2 +3.8 LAST 14 DAYS LAST 30 DAYS +1.2 +2.9 LAST 30 DAYS LAST 60 DAYS 0.0-1.4 LAST 60 DAYS DECEMBER +1.0 +4.4 DECEMBER -5 0 +5 +10 +15-10 0 +10 +20 +30 Data is developed with a proprietary geographic information system analysis of United States Department of Agriculture county-level crop production data weighted by contoured daily temperature from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and 1981-2010 maximum and minimum temperature normals from PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, http://prism.oregonstate.edu. Production data is averaged for each U.S. county over the last five years to develop weights and includes at least 99% of production each year. HRW wheat is defined as winter wheat in and adjacent the Plains; PNW wheat is winter wheat in ID, OR, WA; SRW wheat is defined as winter wheat along and east of the M ississippi River. 14
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