PRECIS: Facilitating capacity building and climate vulnerability studies and applications in Africa Richard Jones Presentation to Met Africa group, Reading University 15.10.2007 Crown copyright Page 1
What is PRECIS and what can it do? Why regional climate modelling and PRECIS? Capacity building and collaborations Climate research and climate scenario development Awareness raising and impacts research Future potential Crown copyright Page 2
Why regional climate modelling and PRECIS?
From global to local climate from a global climate model (GCM) grid to the point of interest. Crown copyright Page 4
Regional climate models (RCMs) simulate high resolution weather Crown copyright Page 5
Winter precipitation over Britain (a) 300km GCM: 1979-83 (b) 50km RCM: 1979-83 300km Global Model 50km Regional Model 1 2 3 5 7 10 (c) 25km RCM: 1979-83 1 2 3 5 7 10 (d) CRU observations: 1961-90 25km Regional Model Observed 10km 1 2 3 5 7 10 1 2 3 5 7 10 Crown copyright Page 6
RCMs simulate extreme events e.g. tropical cyclones Global climate model Regional climate model Crown copyright Page 7
The PRECIS programme PC version of latest Hadley Centre RCM User interface to set up RCM experiments Data processing and display software Boundary conditions Workshops and training materials Support Crown copyright Page 8
Outputs from the PRECIS modelling system PRECIS can provide: climate scenarios for any region an estimate of uncertainty due to different emissions an estimate of uncertainty due to different GCMs an estimate of uncertainty due to climate variability Data available from PRECIS comprehensive for atmosphere and land-surface grid-scale box average quantities maximum time resolution one hour Crown copyright Page 9
Current outputs from the PRECIS programme Detailed climate scenarios using the UKCIP02 methodology for the main developing country regions Detailed simulation of the recent climate (up to the last 50 years) for many developing country regions Basic capacity building and technology transfer enabling mitigation and adaptation activities via: scientific and technical support for applying PRECIS to scenario development and climate research ad hoc advice on using scenarios in impacts assessments, developing collaborations and research proposals Crown copyright Page 10
Status of PRECIS in Africa Institutes with PRECIS University of Cape Town Climate Systems Analysis Group (UCT-CSAG), South Africa ACMAD (African Centre for Meteorological Applications to Development), Niger Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMA) and universities in Ghana Makere University, Uganda Nigerian Meteorological Service and universities in Nigeria ICPAC, Nairobi Countries where PRECIS (data) is available Madagascar (UCT) Ivory Coast, Burkina Faso, Togo (GMA) Morocco and Algeria Ethiopia, Eritrea Cameroon Zambia, Zimbabwe PRECIS user network Crown copyright Page 11
Capacity building and collaborations
Activities are initiated via PRECIS workshops PRECIS workshops focus on: Background science including uncertainties Interpretation of PRECIS results by regional experts Construction of regional climate change scenarios Building capacity in countries/regions using PRECIS PRECIS is supplied with: a handbook covering the background science, system description and the uses and limitations of PRECIS a technical manual explaining technical details about the system and how install and to use it Crown copyright Page 13
Current user/network/project status Over 200 trained users from over 60 countries from workshops in S Africa, UK (x5), Cuba (Belize), Bhutan (India), Brazil (Argentina), Turkey, Ghana, Malaysia, Kenya Developing country regional networks across the globe Projects and focal points: Belize/Cuba CCCCC/INSMENT, India IITM, China CAAS, Brazil/Argentina CPTEC/CIMA, S Africa/Kenya U Cape Town/ICPAC, SE Asia MMD/START Links with international agencies (UNFCCC, UNDP-NCSP) Strengthened scientific capacities in developing countries for participation in international projects (AMMA, WAMME) Crown copyright Page 14
Climate research and climate scenario development
925hPa winds over N/central Africa PRECIS 1961-1990 NCEP reanalysis 10 10 Crown copyright Page 16
May and August precipitation climatology a PRECIS 1961-1990 CRU observations Crown copyright Page 17
DJF daily min temperature DJF daily max temperature Subtropical Subtropical Change in mean minimum Tropical SRES A2: RCM 2080s vs. present-day Tropical Change in mean maximum Equatorial Equatorial Crown copyright Page 18
Rainfall projections over Southern Africa Change in mean summer (DJF) precipitation over southern Africa for the 2080s relative to baseline for the A2 emission scenario. Summer rainfall return periods for the 2080s, under the A2 emissions scenario w.r.t present-day 20-year rainfall return values. Crown copyright Page 19
Precipitation estimates over Eastern Africa NCEP-Reanalysis PRECIS Current climates (1961-1999) Captures the regional rainfall pattern along the East African steep topography and Red Sea area July rainfall 2080 -B2 July rainfall 2080 -A2 Future climates (2080) Increased rainfall (1.5mm/day) over the domain for both A2 & B2 More areas in A2 would experience higher rainfall increases Crown copyright Page 20
WAMME - http://wamme.geog.ucla.edu/ WAMME - West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation WAMME Experimental design: A series of 50km RCM simulations driven by NCEP-R2 reanalysis and HadISST. Simulations from April 1, 2, 3, and 4 to October 31 for 2000, 2003, 2004, and 2005. RCM simulations driven by HadAM3 C20C AGCM, provide by the Hadley Centre for climate change Crown copyright Page 21