TCAC NEW DELHI METHODS AND PROCEDURES USED FOR PREDICTION DR RAJENDRA KUMAR JENAMANI Director In-Charge Meteorological Watch Office (MWO) INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT New ATS Building (Room No.-211, 2nd Floor), Indira Gandhi International (IGI) Airport, New Delhi-110037 E-MAIL ID-rjenamani1@yahoo.co.in/ rjenamani@hotmail.com
INTRODUCTION OBSERVING SYSTEMS AND TRACKING OVER SEA FROM INSAT PREDICTION TECHNIQUES COMMUNICATIONS ISSUE OF TCAC ADVISORIES AS PER ICAO NORMS RECENT DEVELOPMENT CONCLUSIONS
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 11 18 33 GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DISTRIBUTION 20 11 5.5 1.5 BAY ARABIAN SEA SIO SW PACIFIC AREA NW PACIFIC NE PACIFIC NW ATLANTIC % OF GLOBAL FREQUENCY
ICAO TCACs TCAC Area of Responsibility Tropical Cyclone Season DARWIN - South-East Indian November-April Ocean HONOLULU - Central Pacific May - November MIAMI - Eastern Pacific May November NADI - Southern Pacific November - April NEW DELHI- 1) Bay of Bengal April - June 2) Arabian Sea October - December TOKYO - Western Pacific January - December (including South China Sea)
Brief History ICAO, Met Div., Montreal, Canada, Meet, 09-26 Sept., 2002 recommended TCAs for International Civil Aviation in specified format. IMD agreed to recommendation on 12-08 08-03. IMD HQ asked RSMC, CWD located at the HQ to take the additional work of TCAC w.e.f. 25-08 08-0303 for ensuing cyclone season. It also issued order to all RMC s, MWO s and DDGM(WF) regarding issuance of TCA for ICAO Completing seven years
CLASSIFICATION OF CYCLONE IN NIO Types of Disturbances 1. Low Pressure Area 2. Depression 3. Deep Depression 4. Cyclonic Storm 5. Severe Cyclonic Storm 6. Very Severe Cyclonic Storm 7. Super Cyclonic Storm Associated wind speed in the Circulation Less than 17 knots ( < 31 kmph) 17 to 27 knots ( 31 to 49 kmph) 28 to 33 knots ( 50 to 61 kmph) 34 to 47 knots ( 62 to 88 kmph) 48 to 63 knots ( 89 to 118 kmph) 64 to 119 knots ( 119 to 221 kmph) 120 knots and above ( 222 kmph and above)
CYCLONIC STORMS OVER BAY AND ARABIAN SEA 100 98 90 Series1 Series2 80 79 70 60 FREQUENCY 50 40 51 38 41 39 41 30 30 26 29 20 21 19 19 10 0 6 6 7 6 4 2 3 3 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 MONTHS
20 18 16 14 Annual Frequency 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Cyclonic Storms and above Depressions and above 1891 95 99 3 7 11 15 19 23 27 31 35 39 43 47 51 55 59 63 67 71 75 1979 83 87 Years 91 95 99 2003 Figure 4.5 11-Years running means of Annual frequency of disturbances with the minimum intensity of Depressions and above formed over the Indian region (1891-2003)
3.5 3 May October November 2.5 Frequency 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1891 96 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 2001 Years Figure 4.6 11-Years running means of frequency of disturbances with the intensity of depressions and above formed in the month of May, October & November (1891-2003)
Analyzing the past damages and inventorying the population and property at risk INDIA-55-74% B DESH-10-21%(HIGHEST FOR SEVERE CS) S LANKA-2-4% M MAR-3-13%
4 3.5 3.4 % 3 2.5 2 1.5 % SHARES OF GLOBAL FREQUENCY IN THE LITTORAL COUNTRIES OF THE BAY OF BENGAL ONLY 3.4 % CROSSED INDIA AND 0.9 CROSSED BANGALADESH WHILE IT CAUSED 53% AND 23 % OF HUMAN DEATHS RESPECTIVELY (TOTAL 76%) 1 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.5 0 INDIA BGDSH MYNAMAR SRILANKA IN THE SEA COUNTRY
FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO DISASTROUS SURGES IN BANGLADESH SHALLOW COASTAL WATER CONVERGENCE OF THE BAY LOW AND FLAT TOPOGRAPHY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES THICKLY POPULATED LOW LYING ISLNADS FAVOURABLE CYCLONE TRACKS CORIOLIS EFFECTS INNUMERABLE NUMBER OF INLETS INCLUDING WORLD LARGEST RIVER SYSTEMS(GANGA-BRAHMAPUTRA-MEGHNA SOCIO-ECONMIC FACTOR
Meteorological Parameters of Major Cyclones hitting Andhra Pradesh MOST SEVERE RECENTLY-1977 AP & 1999 SUPER CYCLONE Cyclone Landfall Max T MSSW MSLP Strength Eye diameter RMR Storm Date( category) No. (m/s) (hpa) (m/s) (km) (km) surge ( m ) 19 Nov 1977 ( SCSCHW ) 7 64 941-919 26 60 5 12 May 1979 ( SCSCHW ) 6 57 836 21 20 3.5 14 Nov 1984 ( SCSCHW ) 6 49 969 9 20 20 1 8 Nov 1989 ( SCSCHW ) 6.5 65 930-942 8 20-Oct 20 3.5 9 May 1990 ( SCSCHW ) 6.5 69 912-920 21 20 20 3.5 6 Nov 1996( SCSCHW ) 4.5 40 974 17 20-Aug 3-Feb 15 Nov 1998 ( VSCS ) 4.5 ( Cl. No. ) 40 982 20
OBSERVING AND TRACKING SYSTEMS OVER SEA FROM INSAT/RADAR/BUOYS
IMD S OBSERVING NETWORK SURFACE OBSERVATORIES 556 HWSRs 20 UPPER AIR OBSERVATORIES 110 S-BAND CONVENTIONAL RADARS 8 DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS 4 INSAT-2E/METSAT/NOAA/METEOSAT SATELLITES SHIPS OF INDIAN VOLUNTARY OBSERVING FLEET 207 BUOYS 12
Satellite Lunch date Met Payload with Wavelength Bands Major Applications Active/ Inactive Kalpana-1 12th Sept., 2002 Very High Resolution Radiometer(VHRR) Monitoring cyclones & monsoon Active Bands: CMV Winds 0.55-0.75µm OLR 10.5-12.5µm Rainfall Estimation WV Band: 5-7.1µm INSAT-3A April 2003 VHRR(VIS,IR, WV) Monitoring cyclones & monsoon CMV Winds OLR Active Rainfall Estimation Mesoscale features Flood/intense precipitation advisory Snow detection
COMMUNICATIONS
AMSS TCAC-ICAO ASI/PAC RODBs headers BANGKOK -BTBBYPYX BRISBANE- YBBYPYX NADI- NFZZRFXX SNGAPORE- WSZZYPYM TOKYO- RJAAYPYX DELHI AMSS MUMBAI AMSS KOLKATA AMSS CHENNEI With 4 MWOs AMSS NAGPUR AMSS GAUHATI
PREDICTION TECHNIQUES SYNOPTIC CLIPER NWP ISALLOBARIC FIELD
FORECASTING BY NWP TECHNIQUES Limited Area Model Quasi-Lagrangian Model
ISSUE OF WARNING/ADVISORIES
ISSUE OF GENERAL WARNINGS AND SYSTEMS NATIONAL ACWCs (KOLKATA, MUMBAI & CHENNAI) CWCs (BHUBANESWAR, VISAC & AHMEDABAD) NATIONAL CO-ORDINATION (PUNE WEATHER CENTRAL & CWD(NHAC) NEW DELHI) INTERANTIONAL RSMC/TCAC -TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI
ISSUE OF TCAC ADVISORIES AS PER ICAO NORMS 6-hourly Advisories based on 00, 06-------with time of issue HH+3 hours for all system with wind speed> 34 kts P-1---Position, direction of movement, speed and central pressure P-2--Must Include 12, 18, 24 hourly forecast position and maximum wind. SENT TO MWOS/ALL TCAC/ RODB(REGIONAL OPMET DATA BANK) TAKE PART IN ANNUAL ASIA/PAC SIGMET TEST 15 JAN 2007(JUST AN E-MAIL FROM LB SHAH, REGEIONAL DIR, ASIA/PAC)
TCA FORMAT DTG YYYYMMDT / TTTT Z TCAC NEW DELHI TC BOB / ARB 01 NR 01, 02 PSN N LaLalala / E LoLoLo lolo MOV DDD / FF Kt C hpa Max. Wind Mw Mw Mw Kt FCST = PSN +12hrs N LaLalala / E LoLoLo lolo Max. Wind +12hrs Mw Mw Mw Kt FCST = PSN +18hrs Max. Wind +18hrs FCST = PSN +24hrs Max. Wind +24hrs NEXT MESSAGE YYYYMMDD / TTTT Z / NO MSG EXP
TCAC ADVISORY REAL TIME BULLETIN AS PER ICAO(EVERY 6 HOURS) DTG: 20031213/1200Z TCAC: NEW DELHI TC: AGNI NR: 01 PSN: N 0930 /E 08730 MOV: NNW 04 KT C: 998 HPA Max Wind: 40 KT FCST PSN +12hrs: 140000 N1030 / E 08630 Max. Wind +12hrs: 45 KT FCST PSN +18hrs: 140600 N1100 / E 08600 Max. Wind + 18 hrs: 50 KT FCST PSN + 24hrs: 141200 N1130/ E 08530 Max Wind +24hrs: 55 KT NEXT MSG: 200031213/1800 Z
BRIEF OUTLINE ON RECENT ADVISORIES AKASH GONU
IMD- Adding New Technology for further Improving Cyclone Monitoring/FORECASTING Observational Network New Satellite based Automatic Weather Surface Stations Existing S-band S Cyclone Detection Radars to be replaced with Doppler mode radars Strengthening of RS/RW Weather Forecasting IMD plans to procure a state of the art computing system Implementation of High resolution forecast models
* THANKS *