National Integrated Drought Information System Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Flint-Chattahoochee River Basin 11 February 2014
Outline Welcome Keith Ingram, Southeast Climate Consortium Current drought status David Zierden, Florida Climate Center, FSU Streamflows and groundwater Tony Gotvald, USGS Seasonal forecasts and outlooks David Zierden, FSU Streamflow forecasts Jeff Dobur, SERFC Summary and Discussion Keith Ingram, SECC
Current drought status from Drought Monitor http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
7-day Rainfall Totals
30-Day Rainfall
90-day Rainfall Departures
January Mean Temperature Rankings
Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages Previous Brief: Current: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows Previous brief: Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with historical streamflow for day shown Current: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Lake Lanier Inflows Chattahoochee near Cornelia (02331600) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov Chestatee near Dahlonega (02333500)
Current Streamflows Chattahoochee at Atlanta (02336000) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov Chattahoochee near Whitesburg (02338000)
Chattahoochee at West Point (02339500) Current Streamflows http://waterwatch.usgs.gov Chattahoochee near Columbus (02341505)
Current Streamflows Flint River near Griffin (02344500) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov Flint River near Carsonville (02347500)
Current Streamflows Flint River at Albany (02352500) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov Flint at Bainbridge (02356000)
Streamflows Apalachicola at Chattahoochee (02358000) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Groundwater Conditions Previous brief Current brief http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov
Groundwater Status Miller County, GA (Upper Floridan Aquifer)
5-Day Precipitation Forecast http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-5.shtml
French Toast Warning System
7-day average Pacific Ocean SST Anomalies http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/cwlink/mjo/enso.shtml
Winds Over the Pacific
ENSO forecast from IRI
ENSO Prediction Models
1-3 Month Precipitation Outlook 3 Month 1 Month
Fall Rainfall Climatology
U.S. Drought Outlook
Lake Lanier Inflows Whitesburg Lovejoy Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal West Point Columbus Carsonville WF George Albany Columbus Woodruff Blountstown
49% 25% 26% Lake Lanier Inflows 60% 17% 23% Whitesburg Lovejoy Above Normal Near Normal West Point 38% 25% 37% Carsonville Below Normal Columbus ID Below Above CMMG1IN 3272 3971 WHTG1 5628 7442 LOVG1 234 335 ABNG1 9176 12796 BLOF1 36810 48956 WF George Columbus 25% 42% 33% Albany Woodruff 47% 19% 34% Blountstown
Summary There is no drought currently in the ACF basin according to the US drought monitor From 0.25 to 3 inches of rain fell in the basin over the past week, with only 1 to 4 inches over the past 30 days, which below normal Realtime streamflows about half in the normal range and half in the 10 to 24% of normal range, with a small pocket of below normal 7-day average streamflows in N Georgia Inflows to Lake Lanier and streamflows throughout the basin have fallen over the past several weeks, but are in the normal range
Summary Groundwater levels are mostly normal or above normal, with groundwater levels of the Upper Floridan Aquifer in the normal range compared with historically observed levels in Miller County, GA The 5-day forecast 1 to 3 inches of rainfall in the basin, with the greater amounts across the middle of the basin Although the sea surface temperatures have dropped in the Niño 3.4 region, neutral ENSO conditions continue and are likely to continue through spring
Summary Although the seasonal drought outlook does not forecast drought in the basin, the 3-month precipitation outlook calls for below normal rainfall in the southern part of the basin The 1-month streamflow forecast calls for above normal streamflows throughout the basin The 3-month forecast shows that there is a very high probability of normal or above normal streamflows, but that there is still a 17 to 25% chance of below normal streamflows
References Speakers David Zierden, FSU Tony Gotvaldt, USGS Jeff Dobur, SERFC Moderator Keith Ingram, SECC Additional information General drought information http://drought.gov http://www.drought.unl.edu General climate and El Niño information http://agroclimate.org/climate/ Streamflow monitoring & forecasting http://waterwatch.usgs.gov http://www.srh.noaa.gov/serfc/ Groundwater monitoring http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov
Thank you! Next briefing 11 March 2014, 1:00 pm EDT Slides from this briefing will be posted at http://drought.gov/drought/content/regional-programs/regional-droughtwebinars Please send comments and suggestions to: ktingram@ufl.edu