SYMPOSIUM on CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT Guayaquil, ECUADOR, 10-12 October 2011 Guayaquil, ECUADOR, 10 12 October 2011 Perspectives from Africa Mohammed KADI ACMAD, BP 13184 - Niamey Niger) http://www.acmad.org 1
Climate Risk Management 1. Why Risk Management? To guide decision 2. Climate risk management is particularly important, because of inter annual climate variability and change (anomalies) Guayaquil, ECUADOR, 10 12 October 2011 3. Characteristic & severity of impacts from Climate Extrems depends on extrems & vulnerability & exposure Some semantic issue and probably new concepts? IPCC /SREX or Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation to be published soon
An example of the collaborative effort of the WMO system Monitoring the weather & climate of the globe Selected Significant Climate Anomalies and Events (july 2011) REGIONS & COUNTRIES PRODUCE THE EQUIVALENT 3
Direct Observations (IPCC AR4 & Recent analysis) With an inequivocal global warming Significantly increased precipitation in eastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia. Frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased Drying in the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of southern Asia. More intense and longer droughts observed in the tropics and subtropics. Widespread changes in extreme temperatures observed Cold days, cold nights and frost less frequent Hot days, hot nights, and heat waves more frequent Observational evidence for an increase of intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970, correlated with increases of tropical sea surface temperatures 4
Projections of Future Changes in Climate Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions
IPCC 4AR : Projected & impacts UNDP BPCR
CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND EXPOSURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE: KNOW HOT SPOTS Monitoring of the North Atlantic Oscillation is key to interannual Climate Variability for sustainable agriculture and Water resources TThe modification of rain regimes over East Africa has major impacts over the entire Nile Basin, affecting energy sector & public safety Vegetation Monitoring vital as it impacts on rainfall variability in this area, highly vulnerable to overgrazing The chronic presence of malaria risks aggravating with perturbations of the rain season This area has some coastal cities with highest population densities on the continent, vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surges
CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND EXPOSURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE Tropical cyclone flooding endangers populations and damages infrastructure whose repair is costly Monitoring of deforestation which can impact climate, environment food security elsewhere Monitoring of Benguela cold current is vital as its modifications can impact on marine resources Intensity of extreme events appears to be increasing, possibility of limitation to surplus production to assist needy areas
CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND EXPOSURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE Area affected by recurrent droughts and famine This area has two rainfall regimes, their modification can have considerable implications on food security and water resources Fluctuation in major lakes can impact adversely on water resources Tropical cyclone flooding endangers populations and damages infrastructure whose repair is costly This sub region is affected by frequent droughts and crop failure, with lasting effects
Projected temperature and precipitation (IPCC/AR4) model disagreement 10
dley Centre, February 2010 arlo.buontempo@metoffice.gov.u IPCC projections Difference (mm/day) in summer (JJA) precipitation between 2041 2070 and 1960 1990 across AR4 ensemble. The colour indicates the strength of the signal while the colour intensity indicates the consistency across the ensemble. For example, deep red colours indicated where nearly 100% of models agree on a precipitation reduction of more than 0.1 mm/day, dark green indicates where nearly 100% of models agree on nearly no change West most Sahel is the area where both the largest and the most reliable signal can be noticed. Crown copyright Met Office
QUMP projections Met Office Hadley Centre ensemble: The signal on west most Sahel appears to be fairly similar to the one detected by AR4 while significant differences exists over Central and east Sahel where Met Office ensemble seems to suggest a consistent wetting.
??? Status Shared By several experiences for SAHEL 1.PRECIPITATIONS: climate models have very little consensus on climate change projections ( even on the sign of the change) though good skill n predicting seasonal variability. 2.TEMPERATURE : Projections more uniform among climate models and suggest that an increase exceeding the Global mean for summer, 3.EXTREMES : Very little modeling and observation evidence on trends in extremes exists for the Sahel. The model disagreement & lack of modeling implies need for further investment to make advancement in the underlying scientific understanding. 13
Climate Risks issues specific to Africa potential consequences High inter annual variability of rainfall Predicted extreme events like droughts, floods, storms are increasing in frequency & intensity. wipe out the hard earned social and economic progress by African countries political volatility in fragile countries impacts on human security and political stability. available indigenous knowledge? no longer (climatology not dynamic) 14
HOW WE ARE PREPARED? 15
Dealing with CRM in Africa opportunities and success stories 1. Increasing awareness of the importance of climate as a resource particularly in risk management (among policy makers and development partners) UN System (Hyogo Framework of Actions) AU / NEPAD Plan of Actions RECs Plan 2. Public sector reforms (could unlock resources & improve the way business is done) 3. Advances in ICT & Global cooperation in meteorological programs 4. Involvement of NGOs & Private Sector 5. Partnership development & Governance 16
Dealing with CRM in Africa opportunities and success stories 1. Infrastructure at Regional & National Level to deal with patterns of climate variability is being strengthening 2. Climate prediction on seasonal timescales is operational and improving SG (Climate prediction skill modest to high) & capacity to deal with CC is enhanced 3. CRM is already an activity : Example of effective success story: experience with humanitarian Community 4. Strong partnership with Disaster Risk Community
African WMO/Regional Climate Centers providing advanced notice on potential weather and climate related hazards and information for the implementation of policies for vulnerability reduction and adaptation to climate variability and change NORTH AFRICA Network WEST AFRICA Joint CRA/ACMAD CONTINENTAL AFRICAN RCC ACMAD East Africa (ICPAC) Central / Africa (?) SADC / CSC 18
A continental project : AEWACS (VigiRisC) African Early Warning and Advisory Climate Services PRODUCTS : 1. Food Security / Water Managment (Niger) 2. Heath (Health Association _ Ethiopia) 3. Costal & marine Activities (UEMOA?) 4. Severe Weather (Madagscar WMO) ASSESSMENT ANALYSIS: 1. Analysis of needs : selected Consultant (Bidding with african experts) 2. Assessment of existing EWS, tools, conducted : Selected consultant from ACMAD network and in coordination with RECs, ECA/RO and Climate Sub regional 19 centers
The AfriClimServ Project The First Component of Climdev_Africa : Strengthening Regional Climate Institutions 1. 37 M US$ 3 Years 2. ACMAD coordinator 3. ICPAC Agrhymet & DMC 4. WIFA Component ACMAD 20
AfriClimServ activities 2. Improved access to climate observation networks Operationalization of climate information systems 3. Downscaling global climate data and scenarios 4. Dissemination strategy development 5. Networking, 6. Workshops & knowledge sharing Enhancement of Capacities of Scientists. Student and professional training 7. Enhancement of management capacity and 8. Development of physical infrastructure including observation sites (WIFA + Others) 21 ACMAD
Weather Info for All An open partnership between public,private sector & civil society to improving access to reliable weather & climate information all over Africa. 1.Global Objective Enhance SNMHs capability to meet the data & information needs of development stakeholders (national policy bodies, socio economic sectors, communities & individual needs..) 2. Coordination By ACMAD since July 2010, GHF previously 22 ACMAD
AT NATIONAL LEVEL 1. Still limited resource base (financial, infrastructure, HR) exists within most NMHs but initiatives & programs are being implemented to improve capacity to deliver 2. Improved capacity to deliver (efforts from UN system and Regional Centers and Projects) 3. Improved linkages with user communities (beyond aviation & Agriculture or water resources) : Disasters Risk Managers, Fisheries, health 4. Planned Projects to strengthen Infrastructure East Africa (WIFA) Southern Africa (FMI) West Africa (WASCAL)
PRODUCTS AND SERVICES 24
The RCOF Process for Africa Greater engagement between Institutional structures and Climate in Africa through the Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) Zones : West Africa PRESAO 15 Central Africa PRESAC 06 East Africa GHACOF) 21 South Africa SARCOF 15 North Africa PRESANOR 02 Forum operational & improving Involvement of countries & user communities
Products & Services available 1. PRODUCTS CATALOGUE Data, Climatological information for strategic decision support Weather & Climate Forecasts (1 7 Days / Week) Weather & climate watches Seasonal forecasts with monthly update Long term Analysis & Predictions 2. Oriented & tailored Services (Countries, IFRCC, UNICEF, UNISDR, WHO, Fewsnet, NBA, Private..) 26
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Building a partnership with DR Community IFRCC: West Central Africa Zone collaboration & partnership opportunities with ACMAD, CILSS & From December 2007 and ongoing The 2008 experience : a starting point ACMAD 28
The 2008 experience : a starting point SEASONAL FORECAST OF PRECIPITATION BULLETIN FOR WEST AFRICA, TCHAD AND CAMEROUN JAS 2008 On the map, it is indicated that: The probability of rainfall deficit is very low in the sub region. The Probability of rainfall less than Normal equal to 0.20 0.15 and 0.20 in zone I, II and III respectively, A high probability of rainfall higher than normal in zone I and II, and near normal rainfall in zone III (Probability of 0,45 0,50 and 0.50 respectively), In this regards, it is recommended to strengthen the EWS (Early Warning Systems) in place for community protection (flooding risks), plants protection (risks from locust invasion) and public health (likely severe malaria epidemics and other water borne diseases). 08 WFP AU 29
The 2008 experience : a starting point ACTIONS UNDERTAKEN BY IFRCC BASED ON THE SF 1) appeal based on climate predictions 2) Training of RDRTs according to the country at risk (visas and insurance) 3) Contingency stocks 4) Early warnings Volta river basin 5) Logistic assessment 6) No regret approach WFP AU 30
Contingency stocks Stock Dakar (5000 Familles) Senegal Gambie Sierra Leone Cap vert Mauritanie Guinee Bissau Guinee Conakry Mali Liberia Cote d Ivoire Cape Verde AdisAbeba,03 25,2010 Gambia Guinea Bissau Senegal Mauritania Guinea Mali Burkina Faso Cote d'ivoire Sierra Leone Liberia Ghana Stock Accra (1250 familles) Nigeria Niger Benin Togo Ghana Burkina Togo Benin Equatorial Guinea Nigeria Niger WEST & CENTRAL AFRICA REGION Cameroon Sao Tome & Rep. of Principe Gabon Congo Chad CAR DR Congo Stock Yaounde (1250 familles) Cameroun Tchad RDC Congo Sao Tome Guinee Eq RCA Gabon 1 WFP AU 31
Conclusions & Perspectives From this experience, the IFRC retains that climate information is useful, climate information can serve as input into crucial disaster management decision making mostly as it pertains to the short term forecasting and monitoring of disaster hotspots throughout the June September risky rainy season in West Africa. 32
METEOROLOGICAL & CLIMATE INFO ALLOWS IFRCC TO BETTER * understand what is happening & what is likely to happen * anticipate climate related threats. IFRCC Example Early Warning early Action Climatolgy Short Range Forecast & Now casting Seasonal & Monthly Update Long Range Forecast Our available historical information & Knowledge a warning of an impending storm can help communities prepare and take immediate actions such as evacuation to reduce the loss of life. A seasonal forecast based may give us a heads up that the upcoming storm season could be particularly severe, or that a continuing drought could result in food scarcity. Future climate change scenarios present an early warning of increasing hazards which, along with trends such as urbanization and population growth, give a new analysis of risk. WFP AU 33
Further dialogue and experiences with disasters risk manager 1. MoU signed and yearly evaluation 2. Activity operational (products maintained and extended to other area) 3. Recent Involvement of GFDRR / World Bank in a simulation exercice of Predicted disaster ( gather producers of information (climate & hydrology, academia) and users community (Regional & national Risk Disaster Managers) Lagos June 2011. 4. GFDRR commited to support the process of simulation exsrcices for all RCOFs and built capacity 5. Exercice with UNISDR (Douala, September 2011) 34
Building a Partnership for Disaster Risk Management based on Climate Knowledge in Africa In partnership with UNISDR Africa and ACMAD Kenyatta International Conference Centre Nairobi, Kenya Tuesday, 15 November, 2011 35
About the partnership Durable and action oriented dialogue between climate scientists and disaster risk managers which is in order to provide relevant climate services to be translated by disasters risk managers into risk reduction measures, community centered EWS, local preparedness, response and recovery. in line with GFCS, lessons learned from WMO/SWFDP and ACMAD/ AEWACS. Focus on local action and will contribute to shape on going global initiatives support the implementation of Climdev & Hyogo Framework of Action in countries. strengthen the links between technical and scientific agencies and disasters managers with the private sector and insurance regional organizations involved 36
RECOMMENDATIONS 1. Increasing the social demand? G The right for information on Climatic Disasters Riks is central in creating social demand and accountability 2. Conducting analysis of available CRM initiatives & producing reference material * Evaluation matrix * Tables that link adaptation and risk management decisions to changes in exposure vulnerability, and climate extremes. ACMAD 37
PROGRAM EVALUATION MATRIX OF CRM INITIATIVES YES Currently improves CRM NO REINFORCE Where initiative are valuable but vulnerable to risk RECONSIDER Initiatives that have not the potential to improve the resilience to Risk or CC and that might have bad feedback effect NO CHANGE REQUIRED Initiatives that improves CRM and resilience to risk or Climate change UNDER EXPLOITED Initiative that improves CRM & CCA but can be more efficient with some modification (in term of science, dissemination ) 38
THANK YOU 39