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==== www.climatechange.cn P = N OMMT N % Vol.3, No. 1 January, 2 0 0 7 ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH!"1673-1719 (2007) 01-0014-06 %&'()*+, N=!= NIO == OIP N OIP!" NMMUTN O=!" #$%&'()*+ NMMMUN P=!"= NMMMUN = %&' $%&'($%)*+,-./0= %&'()*+ %&'()*3!"# 20 LIA!" MWP %!"#!!!"20!"#P467===!!"#A = National Research Council of the National Academies ====Mann et al. 1J3 %&'()*+!" 2001 IPCC %&'20 %&'(! 20! 4 "#$%&'()*+ ====Mann et al. %&'() %&' OM %&'()*+, 5 hockey stick %!"# %&'()*+, 10!" G. R. North! "!"#21 1/4 %&'()*+,!" %&'()*! 12 401 %&!" %&'() %&'()*+,-!" w e t! %&'()*+ 7J9 ====2 0 0 6!%&'() 3!"#!" %&'()*+!"#!" MWP (LIAF %&'()!" 20 #%&'()* +! MWP LIA! 2006J10J18 =!"2006J10J29 %&' 40331010! 1932J %&'() K=E-mail: swwang@pku.edu.cn Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2007, 3 (1): 14J19! %& %&'()* 20 noodles =!"#IPCC! #%&'()*+,-!" MWP I=1300J1900 %&'()*! 2004J2006 %!"#MWP LIA 20!! 6 14! LIA!!" # %&'() %&'(!" %! 800J1300 AD %&'()*+, 2!"!"#"$%&'(

www.climatechange.cn N!W %&'()*+, 15 N== %&'( ==== 1 %&7!"#!$%!" %! 11!!" 12!"!" 13 Hegerl et al.= %!" 14 P Mann et al.! 3 Esper et al.! 15 Moberg et al.! N6!"# 900 AD %&'()*+, 900 AD!" %&'()*+,-./01!" %&'" 7!" %&'()*+,-)./!"# %&'()*(+, %&'()*+,-./0'1! L 0.6 0.4 Borehole temperatures (Huang et al. 2000) Multiproxy (Mann and Jones 2003) Glacier lengths (Oerlemans et al. 2005) Multiproxy (Moberg et al. 2005) 0.2 Multiproxy (Hegerl et al. 2006) Tree rings (Esper et al. 2002) Instrumental record (HadCRUT2v) 0.0 J0.2 J0.4 J0.6 J0.8 J1.0 J1.2 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900 1== %&'()'*+,-.*/0$!"#! 1961J1990! Fig. 1 Low-frequency variations of average temperature anomalies for the Northern Hemisphere or Globe (relative to 1961-1990) given by different authors ====Oerlemans 12!" #$%&' 169 %$&'() % %#&' %&'()* %&'() 1600!"#!1850J1990!" 0.6!" 3 % 1950J1980!"! %&'150 a!"# %&'( )*+,-./ ==== %&'()!*+,-./ %&'()*+,-./!!" %&'()*+,-.!" %&'()*+ %&'()*!"# %&'(! )*+,- 13! %&!"1850J1990 %& 0.7 0.2 1850! 1600 %&' %&'() *+ ==== %&'$()*+,-./0 %& %&'()* 150 a! 1 0.2!"# %1000 AD!"# 20! 1 2a 17 O==!"# OKN==OM ==== 100 %&3!1 NOAA %&' NCDC!"!" 20 I!"2 2!"# 5 5!"#!"2 NASA % GISS %& 21 %&'()*+, 1982 %&'()*3 HadCRUT2v!Hadley!"!"5 5! %&'()*+,- 11 3 %&I 1979J2004!"!"#!"# 0.16 /10 a 3 0.17 /10 a 22 %2005!" %& I!" 3 2005!"# 1998 2!" 3 20!" 30 a 25 a! %&'()*+, 23!" %&'#$()*20!"# 5 %&20 %&!"# 1 22 ==== HadCRUT2v 1856J1910! 1910J1945 0.4 1945J1975!" 1975!" 0.5 20! 0.6 21 Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2007, 3 (1): 14J19 15

==== www.climatechange.cn 16 % =OMMT 1==20 %&'( 22! /10 a Table 1 Global mean temperature variations in late 20th century ( unit: /10a) 22 1958J2004 1979J2004! 0.12 0.14 J0.37 0.16 0.10~0.12 0.12~0.19 J0.65 J0.33~J0.45 5 a 0.1 %!&' %&'() *+,-./012 %&'()*+,-./ ==== %&'() *+,-.!"!"#!"!"#! %&'()!"# % $&'()* 1700 % 20!"# 10 a 6 km!" 6 m 24 1950J1995 %& 2 30 a 1975J2005 %&'40 km/10 a %&20 25 a! % OKO==if^ jtm ====Soon et al. 25! 139 % MWP LIA!! Soon et al.! MWP LIA %&'()!" %&' 800J1300 AD 1300J1900 % 1! LIA!"! LIA!"# ====! 1600 % MWP!"!!!" MWP!"# 2(b) 2(c) %&'(#SST 18 %SST 19 %&'! MWP % &!"!" 2 %& L Mg/Ca %&%'()*+,- 0.8 kabp!" LIA 0.4 kabp 2! 2(b) 2(c) MWP!"LIA %&'2.5 5.0 1 Moberg et al. 16 Esper et al. 15!"#1600!"Mann et al.!!0.8 1.0 Mann et al.! 0.2! %&'( %&" 6 MWP % &'! LIA %&'(! MWP!"# 2(a) MWP %20!21! /a BP 0 500 1000 1500 a b LIA MWP 2000 2500 ( a ) ( b ) ( c ) J32.0 J31.0 21 22 23 24 25 J6 J4 J2 0 2 / SST=/ SST / 2== 2500 a %& 17 a = ppq 18 b SST 19 c!"# 14 C! Fig. 2 Greenland temperature 17 (a), Bermuda Rise SST 18 (b), and West African SST anomalies 19 (c) in the lastest 2500 years (black triangle indicates the position of 14 C date) 16 Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2007, 3 (1): 14J19

www.climatechange.cn N!W %&'()*+, 17 1 % MWP 1!"#!$%& 2!"# %#&'()*20 %&'( % MWP %20!21! OKP==OM %&'()* ==== Hansen et al. 23 % %&'()*$%&+!" 1Ma 100 %& 1! 19! 2000!0.7 SST 1870J1900 2001J2005 0.5 1.0 %ppq %& % 135 a SST!" %&'()*!"#! " SST %&'() ====!"# ODP 806B 0.3 N 159.4 E %& SST 1870 SST % %&#0.5 2001J2005!SST %&! %&' SST!"# % 1.35 MaBP SST!"!"# SST!"# 1 2.7 N 78.0 E P0 40 a!" %&'()!"! 0.35 MaBP SST! SST % SST!1 ====!"20 %&'()%& %! "#$%& %&'()!" 0.5! 1.35 MaBP %& 1 %&'( % &'()*'(+,!"# $ SST %&'( %&# SST!" %&'()!*+,!"#!"!" 20!"# % %&'( P==! ==== %&'()*+,-./01 %& %&'( %&'()*+,- %&'( %&' %&'()*+,-./! % 1850 % %&'(1850 %&! %&'()*+,- %&'() %&'()*+,-./0123 1978!"# 2 11 a %&'(0.1%!!" %&'()*+ %!" 11 a 21 22 %& 20% 30% %&'()* 14 C 10 Be! %&'()*+!" %&'()*+,-!"#!" %&'()*+ %&'!" Maunder MinimumI MM %&'() 11 a!" m 0.2% 0.4% %&'( MWP %&'(!)*+, 11 a!"# M!"# % 0.1% %!" MWP LIA %&'( %&'()*+!" %&'(")*+ %&'()*+,-.)/0,-!!"#13!"17 19 %&'() * ==== 3 %&'()*+! %&'()*+, 26! 1961J1990 %! "#!" 1880J1980 %&!20 %&'()*+, Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2007, 3 (1): 14J19 17

==== www.climatechange.cn 18 % =OMMT!20 %&'()*+,#- 20!"25 a %&'( %&'( %&'( %20 1500J1700 %&'() %&' 3 %&'()* %&'#$()*%+, -./!"!" %&'()!"# %&'( Mann et al. 2!" %&'!"! / 0.5 0.0 J0.5 J1.0 Q== = Instrumental record Mann and Jones with uncertainties 3== Simulations CSM Crowley GKSS Gerber et al. 1.5CO 2 Bauer et al. ( 14 C) Gerber et al. 2.5CO 2 Bauer et al. ( 10 Be) Bertrand et al. 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 %&' 26 Fig. 3 Simulations of temperature variations for the last millennium by models 26 ==== 1 =!"#!"#20 0.6 21! 5 a! 0.1 20 O5 a % 0.2 /10 a === 2 %&'()*+,#-. %&'()*+,20!"#! %&'() % 20 %!"# === P 1600 AD %&'()*+ δ 18 O %&'!" %&'!()*+,-1300J 1900 1961J1990! J0.4 J0.8! LIA === 4! MWP 900J1300 AD %&'()*+,-. 3!"#!$%&'()*+,!" 1961J1990!" === 5 20! O5 a %&'(! %&'()*+, %&'()*+,-. === 6 %&'()* 5 kabp 1.35 MaBP 1 %&'()*+ === 7 %&'"()*+,-.!"# %&'("#)*+ %&'()*+,-./01 %&'(!"!"# %&'&()*+ === 8 %&'()*+ 900 AD!"#= %& %&'(!"# %&' %&'()*+,!"! [1] Mann M E, Bradley R S, Hughes M K. Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries [J]. Nature, 1998, 392: 779J782. [2] Mann M E, Bradley R S, Hughes M K. Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties and limitations [J]. Geophys. Res. Letts., 1999, 26: 759J762. [3] Mann M E, Jones P D. Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia [J]. Geophys. Res. Letts., 2003, 30 (15): 1820. [4] Folland C K, Karl T R, Christy J R, et al. Observed climate variability and change [M]// Houghton J T, Ding Y, Griggs D J, et al. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2001: 99J181. [5]!! K= %&'() [J].!2003, 2 (6): 12J14. [6] [7] Greening Earth Society World Climate Report [J]. 2002, 7 (15): 1J2. von Storch H, Zorita E, Jones J M, et al. Reconstructing past climate noisy data [J]. Science, 2004, 306: 679J682. [8]! I K= %&'()*+=[J]. %&2005, 1 (2): 72J75. 18 Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2007, 3 (1): 14J19

www.climatechange.cn!w %&'()*+, N 19 [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18]! I K= %& [J].=! 2005, 15 (8): 917J922. National Research Council of the National Academies.Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2000 Years [M]. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2006: 1J141. Jones P D, Osborn T J, Briffa K R. Adjusting for sampling density in grid box land and ocean surface temperature time series [J]. J. Geophys. Res., 2001, 106: 3371J3380. Oerlemans J. Extracting a climatic signal from 169 glacier records [J]. Science, 2005, 308: 675J677. Huang S P, Pollack H N, Shen P Y. Temperature trends over the past five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures [J]. Nature, 2000, 403: 756J758. Hegerl G C, Crowley T J, Hyde W T, et al. Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries [J]. Nature, 2006, 440: 1029J1032. Esper J, Cook E R, Schweingruber F H. Low-frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability [J]. Science, 2002, 295: 2250J2253. Moberg A, Sonschkin D M, Holmgren K, et al. Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low-and high-resolution proxy data [J]. Nature, 2005, 433: 613J617. Dahl-Jensen D, Mosegaard K, Gundestrup N, et al. Past temperatures directly from the Greenland ice sheet [J]. Science, 1998, 282: 268J271. Keigwin L D. The Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period in the Sargasso Sea [J]. Science, 1996, 274: 1504J1508. [19] demenocal P, Ortiz J, Guilderson T, et al. Coherent high-and low-latitude climate variability during the Holocene warm period [J]. Science, 2000, 288: 2198J2202. [20] Smith T M, Reynolds R W. A global merged land and sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historical observations (1880J1997) [J]. J. Climate, 2005, 18: 2021J2036. [21] Hansen J, Ruedy R, Sato M, et al. A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change [J]. J. Geophys. Res., 2001, 106 (D20): 23947J23963. [22] CCSP and SGCR (Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research). Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere: steps for understanding and reconciling differences [M]// Karl T, Hassol S, Miller C, et al. Synthesis and Assessment Product 1.1. Washington DC: US Department of Commerce, 2006: 1J164. [23] Hansen J, Sato M, Ruedy R, et al. Global temperature change [J]. PNAS, 2006, 103 (39): 14288J14293. [24] Parmesan C, Yohe G. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems [J]. Nature, 2003, 421: 37J42. [25] Soon W, Baliunas S, Idso C, et al. Reconstructing climatic and environmental changes of the past 1000 years: reappraisal [J]. Energy and Environment, 2003, 14 (2/3): 233J296. [26] Jones P D, Mann M E. Climate over the past millennia [J]. Reviews of Geophysics, 2004, 42, RG2002, doi:10.1029/2003rg 000143. Latest Advances in Studies of the Global Temperature Variations for the Last Millennium Wang Shaowu 1, 2, Luo Yong 2, 3, Wen Xinyu 1, Dong Wenjie 2, 3 (1 School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; 2 Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 3 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China) Abstract: The report of National Research Council of the National Academies on the title of Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2000 Years is reviewed. Discussion is concentrated upon the following issues: the new evidence of global warming, three special periods (20th century warming, LIA, and MWP), and numerical simulations of temperature variations in the last millennium. Key words: last millennium; temperature variations; 20th century warming; LIA; MWP Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2007, 3 (1): 14J19 19