Data Analytics for Solar Energy Management

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Data Analytics for Solar Energy Management Lipyeow Lim1, Duane Stevens2, Sen Chiao3, Christopher Foo1, Anthony Chang2, Todd Taomae1, Carlos Andrade1, Neha Gupta1, Gabriella Santillan2, Michael Gonzalves2, Lei Zhang2 1 Info. & Comp. Sciences, U. of Hawai`i at Mānoa 2 Atmospheric Sciences, U. of Hawai`i at Mānoa 3 Met. & Climate Science, San Jose State University

Energy in the State of Hawai`i In 2013, Hawaii relied on oil for 70% of its energy. Hawaii s electricity cost is 3 times the US average

Renewables in the State of Hawai`i Meet & exceed 70% clean energy by 2030

Disconnected Grids Six independent grids: Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Lanai, Maui, Hawaii.

Research Objective Investigate the use of data-centric methods for predicting solar irradiance at a specific location complement not replace NWP (eg. WRF) 1-3 hour ahead predictions 1 day ahead predictions

Data Sources MesoWest 30 Weather Stations ~10 sensors each 5-60 min sampling interval 4 Years of Hourly Data January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2013 SCSH1, PLHH1 & KTAH1 stations

1-Hour Ahead Predictions Linear Regression Select top-5 features from diff sensors at diff time at diff neighboring location Cubist Trees Decision trees with linear regression models at the leaves Normalize data to hourly readings

Dealing with Seasonality Two types of cycles in the (irradiance) data: daily & yearly Separate models for each season eg. a separate model for each month & hour: Jan 10am Deseasonalize the data Mean signal: for each day & hour average the values over the 4 hours Subtract the mean signal from the data

On a good day... Month-hour with top 5 features

Prediction Errors

1-3 Hour Ahead Predictions

1-Day Ahead Predictions Consider granularity of 1 day Apply a clustering algorithm k-means PAM Examine centroids / medoids

Partition Chains Procedure Order partition numbers by date Find consecutive days with the same partition number Find the length of these chains Result:Normally about 2 ~ 3 consecutive days in the same partition Partition 1 Partition 2 Partition 3 Partition 4 Partition 5 Average Chain Length 2.286 2.863 3.583 2.732 2.717 Maximum Chain Length 5 11 13 6 11

Partition Transitions

Conditional Probability 1 Day Before Next / Forecast Day Probability 15.38% 23.53% 26.70%

vs. Months

Naive Bayes Classifier Probabilistic classifier using Bayes theorem Assumes independence between features Feature Selection Relative Humidity, Temperature, Wind, Solar Clusters for target site Greedy Select best number of clusters for each feature Find best combination of features

Setup 1 Day and 4 Day lead time 3 years training (2010-2012) 1 year testing (2013) PLHH1 & KTAH1 Hourly Top 5, 10, 20, 30, 50 features 6 hour data window Daily Conditional Probability & Naive Bayes Predicting 6 solar irradiance partitions 2 day data window

WRF Comparison WRF Irradiance Forecasts Run by Prof. Yi-Leng Chen of the Meteorology Department in SOEST Freely available online 3.5 Day Hourly Forecasts 1.5 km resolution Find closest grid to stations Difference between forecasted and observed

Metric Mean Absolute Error = WRF & Hourly Forecasts Predicted = Forecasted solar irradiance at the hour Actual = Observed solar irradiance at the hour Daily Forecasts Predicted / Actual solar irradiance values obtained from the cluster Only daytime hours (7 am - 8 pm) are considered

Data Driven vs. WRF - PLHH1

1 Day vs. 4 Days - PLHH1

Rare Events Similar to outlier analysis Several possible definitions depending on how we model what is NOT rare: Infrequent events (phenomenological) Events not predicted well by a given model (statistical or dynamical or both) Events with high disagreement in an ensemble of models

GFS Rare Day: Dec 30, 2014 (- 0 days)

Conclusions 1-3H ahead forecasts Linear Regression & Cubist Trees: ~15% error 1-3D ahead forecasts Clustering into daily irradiance profiles Interesting analysis using discrete techniques: chains, conditional entropy etc. Discrete prediction techniques: ~15% error Outlier analysis Incorporate signal from larger scale

vs. Temperature

1 Day vs. 4 Days - PLHH1

Data Driven vs. WRF - KTAH1

1 Day vs. 4 Days - KTAH1

1 Day vs. 4 Days - KTAH1

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