Scenarios of future cereal production, ecological and economical consequences evaluated by simulation models using downscaled GCM scenarios for two regions in Norway Bleken, M.A., L.R. Bakken, L.E. Haugen, and P.K. Rørstad Norwegian University of Life Sciences (UMB), Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences marina.bleken@umb.no 111
Warmer climate better opportunity for cereal production? How to exploit this opportunity? Possible consequences for the environment N dissipation C sequestration
The climate scenarios Downscaled by RegClim Temperature, C 1 Precipitation (mm) Hadley A, 71-1, Max Planck* -9, 77 Oslo 191-9, 7-1 1 3 7 8 Month 9 1 11 1 3 climate 77 *ECHAM /OPYC3
The model(s) COUP Model - Physically based 1D heat & water balance in soil (Jansson & Karlberg, 1) L.E. Haugen William of Ockham SPN (Soil-Plant Nitrogen) Franciscan monk (18-137) razor: Denitrification NOckhams litter 1 simplify models C litter 1 as far as possible kb k1 Bladareal Fra lys- til kjemisk energi => potensiell tilvekst Tørkestressfaktor NH Nit NO3 N-faktor Microbial C kh fh TS-tilvekst N-opptak Leaching Humus C TS- og N-fordeling, rot, skudd (korn, stubb) SOILN_NO
Validation exercise: Use laboratory based parameters and initial values to simulate plant N uptake. Compare with measurements: Fertilizer level 1 g N/m D M T O P S.re s 1 1 1 1 N T O P N SH. r e, s - N O, - 3 1 1 1 M a yd M JSu Tn O R J Su l. r e s A u g 1 1 1 Fertilizer level g N/m N H, - MA pa r y NMSJauTy no R JuJSnu. lr e sj ua l u g A u Sg e p S e p.. M ay NJ Ou n3, J -u l A ug N O, - M a y N3 JH uun M SJ u. rl e s A u g 1 D M T O P S.re s M a y L JAu I ng S J. ru el s A ug 1. M a yd M JSu Tn O R J us l. r e s A u g M ay Jun Jul A ug N H, - s A p r N TMO ap y SN.JMr ue nic S J.ur el s A u g S e p 1 3 A p r 8M a y F N JMu no K JSu.l r e s A u g S e p 1 1.9 1.8 A p r A p Mr Aa ypm rna SyJ MuT noanjyrhu n JS, Ju.ulr enj -su la uj ugal u gs Ae upsg e p S e p. M ay Jun Jul A ug M a y L JAu IGn S J. ru el s A ug 1 A p r. 7 M a y NJ Ou n, J -u l A u g S e p M ay 3 Jun Jul A ug. 3 17 1 A p r A p Mr a ymf anyjmu nno JMKu nicjsu.lsr ej.usr ela s u ga u gs e ps e p 1 17 1.9 M a y N HJ uun M SJ u. rl e s A u g
Observed Ås Observed Oslo Grain yield, g/m 8 Nitrate leaching, g N m- Downscaling: simulated versus observed scenario 3 Simulated, th May, present genotype 1 1 Nitrogen fertilization 3 7 18 s11_obsaas_eb_1 s37_conoslo_eb_1 s_obsoslo_eb_1 1 18 Nitrogen fertilization, g N m-
Late genotype S. 1th April, Grain yield, g/m Hadley A (71-1): present management, "late" genotype + early sowing date Late genotype S. th May, 3 Control, th May, present genotype Present genotype S. th May 1 1 Nitrogen fertilization 18 Hadley edicts increased drought, which is not alleviated by early sowing 7 Scenario name s37_conoslo_eb_1 s_haoslo_lb_1 s_haoslo_eb_1 s_haoslo_lb_1
Max Planck ECHAM /OPYC3 (-9), present or late genotype, - - - days earlier sowing Late genotype Max Planck predicts drought similar to present => opportunity for increased yield 7 Grain yield, g/m - - - days earliercontrol, th May, sowing present genotype 3 Present genotype 1 8 Scenario name 1 Nitrogen fertilization 18 s37_conoslo_eb_1 s39_mploslo_eb_1 s1_mploslo_lb_1 s38_mploslo_eb_1 s_mploslo_lb_1
Max Planck predicts drought similar to present => opportunity for increased yield Late genotype N leaching depends on the 8 ability to maintain yield 7 Grain yield, g/m 3 Present genotype 1 Nitrate leaching, g N m- Max Planck ECHAM /OPYC3 (-9), present or late genotype, - - - days earlier sowing 7 3 1 9 Scenario name 1 Nitrogen fertilization 18 s37_conoslo_eb_1 s39_mploslo_eb_1 s1_mploslo_lb_1 1 18 - Nitrogen fertilization, g N m s38_mploslo_eb_1 s_mploslo_lb_1
Hadley A MP Historical 1 31 1 9 17 1 Loss of soil humus C (g C m- year-1)
Conclusions I Max Planck scenario Opportunity for bigger yield and larger gross economical margin, combined with less loss of soil C, if later cv available, elastic sowing date Increased annual variability Hadley A scenario: Later cv and early sowing necessary to maintain present yield Increased annual variability Both scenarios: Improved/adapted management necessary to maintain soil humus (late cv, early sowing, catch crop ) with a fertilizer N /grain price =., N loss is very large and little affected by climate scenario (change in optimal fert. reflect changes in plant N-uptake) Scenario Control, present cv Max Planck, present cv Max Planck, late cv Hadley, present cv 11 Hadley, late cv Hadley, late cv early sowing Opt. fert., Mean yield, St.dev. g N m- g m- yield 1.1 39 1 1.3 1 1. 1 18 13.3 33 1 Relative mean gross margin 1..9 1.18. Relative st.dev. gross margin 1. 1. 1..97 13.9 17.9 1.17 1. 17.97 1.1 Loss of soil N loss carbon, (leaching + g C m- denitrific.) g N year-1 m- year-1 17 7. 31 8. 1 7. 9 8. 1 7.
Thank you This were some preliminary examples 1