mm ghhw vy h Pd d O d F Shphd vcy A Ppd F: Fh & Wdf mp Pgm mb B, B Ppd By: D H Sp cgc g, B Jb D Jb D g, B Spmb 2008
mm ghhw vy h Pd d O d F Shphd vcy A xcv Smmy 2008, vy w cdcd f h hd mm ghhw (hd m) h F Shphd vcy d Pd d O Vy f h W Ky g. Sv c w vyd bw 16 J d 26 J f f 13 h vy m. Th mb f ghhw md w fcd by h f c pybc, mpg m v v m. Th hd b vwd cy mp z w m. A f 400 ghhw w dcd dg h vy. Th mb f mm ghhw bvd F Shphd w mch hgh (7.0 p mp ) h h Pd d O (0.8 p ). O w cd W. Th w b gd h c f h fcg hd d ccfy fdgd yg. D h h mpg wdw f h pc, c hd b dd mpg pc. D vb f h g d ccy dpc g-m pp d. F ch hd v d c g-m mg pc d p. Th p mpc f dcp mgm cv (ch pcbd bg d hg, hb, d pw cd cg) h mm ghhw hd b vgd. H & D 2008 2
mm ghhw vy h Pd d O d F Shphd vcy A Tb f xcv Smmy... 2 f Fg d Tb... 4 1.0. dc... 5 1.1. Spc fm... 5 1.2. G d Objcv... 5 2.0. Sdy A... 5 3.0. Mhd... 9 4.0.... 10 4.1. Pybc Svy... 10 4.2. pdcv Scc... 11 4.3. D fm Bdvy f Wdf Sd... 12 5.0. Dc... 13 6.0. cmmd... 14 7.0. Acwdgm... 16 8.0. d... 16 9.0. Appdx 1. 2008 mm ghhw D Sh... 17 H & D 2008 3
mm ghhw vy h Pd d O d F Shphd vcy A f Fg d Tb Fg 1. Ovvw f mm ghhw dy.... 6 Fg 2. F Shphd dy... 7 Fg 3. Pd d O dy.... 8 Tb 1. mm ghhw vy ff cdg mb f c d mp, g h d dc h F Shphd vcy d Pd d O Vy 16-26 J 2008... 10 Tb 2. mm ghhw dc dg vy p 16-26 J 2008 F Shphd vcy... 11 Fg 4. cd fm h Bdvy f Wdf Sd f mm ghhw pd My-Spmb 1960-2005 fm h g (1:50,000 TS gd 082F04)... 12 Fg 5. cd fm h Bdvy f Wdf Sd hwg h m gp z f mm ghhw pd J-Ag 1960-2005 fm h g (1:50,000 TS gd 082F04).... 13 Tb 3. cmmd d f g f h dy f mm ghhw h W Ky... 15 H & D 2008 4
mm ghhw vy h Pd d O d F Shphd vcy A 1.0. dc 1.1. Spc fm Th mm ghhw pc mg, pdg w Sh Amc d bdg d d h Ud S (P. 1996). Th pc w cy d fdy hd d 50% pp dc h y (OSW 2007). bcmg pc f cv cc Bh mb bc bv d g-m bd vy hv d b dcg d h pvc (mpb 2006). p, h vg mb f ghg dcd fm 6.3 (1976-1985) 4.0 (1988-1994) 2.3 (1997-2005) (mpb 2006). cy, m pp pp hv dcd mdy (p. b.). A dc c bdc c h g h b hyphd h m fc mg mm ghhw (mpb 2006). Hb fgm d, my d pd d vhc, d cmc fc dg h bdg pd my b ddv fc h dc (P. 1996, OSW 2007). 1.2. G d Objcv Spcfc bjcv f h pjc w : 1) A hb by f h pc h g, pcy Fh d Wdf mp Pgm (FWP) pp 2) A ffccy f h B c vy mm vy mhd f ghhw ( 1998) d pvd fdbc 3) bh vy f g m mg f bd 4) Pvd cmmd f xpdd vy, pdcv mg d cv mgm 2.0. Sdy A vy w cd h F Shphd vcy A d h h d f h Pd d O Vy (Fg 1). Th F Shphd vcy cd h w d f h mb v, 6 m h f T h B.. (Fg 2). A 964 h, h g c pc f d B wh h vy dy, wm d Hmc (Hxw) bgcmc bz (Mchm 2008). vy h Pd d O Vy w g h fcg p gg fm h vy bm (470 m) md v (950 m). vy ff cdd cvg f h mpcd by h Ag 2007 f f h h d f h Pd d O v (Fg 3). H & D 2008 5
BTSH OUMBA [ Gd v vm DG DG DG Sp 1 DG 1261 01 DG P Sd DG DG DG DG DG DG v DAM g DG DG DG DG DG DG DG DG DG DG DG DG DG M 1519 1956 Fg 2 Sdy A v 1003 1867 v Fg 3 Sdy A D G D G W Jc D G D G p D G D G DG DG DG DG DG DG D G D G D G d D G D G DG DG DG DG DG DG DG DG DG DG DG DG DG K DG DG DG DG DG DG DG Sc DG DG 1416 mb DG DG DG DG DG DG DG M DG DG DG 981 DG D G D G T c DG m D G B T v DAM Ky F Gd Kmby 1089 v v v v p d v v v D P D p d p d b O AP W D S DAM D G D G D G D G D G D G D G USA g Sm T Fh d Wdf mp Pgm Mj Tw mp Pgm Bdy x f Pjc A (wh FWP Bdy) 50 25 0 50 100 m Fg 1. Ovvw Mp f O Sdy A AD 83/UTM Z 11 Spmb 2008 $MAPS/cmm_ghhw\2008\Ovvw_O_2008,pdf W:\m\\W\cbfwcp\cmm_ghhw\2008\Ovvw_O_2008.mxd
Fh d Wdf mp Pgm 0 1-5 6-10 >10 Pdcv cy Ocp - P d 03 Pdcv Bh - P d 11 Pdcv F - P d 12 F Shppd Ppy Bdy B Ab Spmb 2008 0 250 500 1,000 Fg 2. F Shphd Sdy A 1,500 m $MAPS/cmm_ghhw\2008\O_F_Shp_2008,pdf W:\m\\W\cbfwcp\cmm_ghhw\2008\O_F_Shp_2008.mxd $MAPS/cmm_ghhw\2008\O_PDO_2008,pdf W:\m\\W\cbfwcp\cmm_ghhw\2008\O_PDO_2008.mxd
D G W D G O T O S M DG d DG A G D G h m D G DG p D G B D G v DG D G D G D G D G b m O T A G D G c DG D G A D G D G OUM BA GA D S G P B D G O B M O D901 214 D G c DG D G D G D G v B G T O D G D G D G D G B Z Z A D 1416 M T D G d Gd S y w d mb D G p D G D G T m D S h D G d D G D G y D G m v S D G M DG B B F A c T A F c B B M 176 D G pd DG H D G A GO AYO SHA S D G pd v D G P M pd pd pd c D G DAM BB 0003 1 BB 00031 SV pd D G 177 D G v z O M D G 175 M v DG 174 c F y D G D G M BB 0003 1 V 172 171 173 G D G BB 0003 1 v M D901210 D G D G D G D G - h g pd m c D G ' O m h F D D g D G D G D G c d B O B d d D G d ' D G D G D G h DG D G F D G S h p h d D G D G D G D G D G D ' O V B T S H O U M B 182 W A S H G T O A d D G D G 183 761 P D - m D G D G DAM m d Y1H1418 S W D G P APDS D G v D G v V W B D D G D - v D G A A D A 184 X1H1367 X1H1369 w y BTSH X1H1370 O UM BA X1H1258 U S A Whg Fg 3. Pd D'O Sdy A Fh d Wdf mp Pgm O c D (mb ) 0 1-5 c cym Hb A Pdcv c Ocp - P d 03 Pdcv Bh - P d 11 Pdcv F - P d 12 Pd D'O F Bdy 2007 AD 83/UTM 11 Spmb 2008 0 0.5 1 2 3 m $MAPS/cmm_ghhw\2008\O_PDO_2008,pdf W:\m\\W\cbfwcp\cmm_ghhw\2008\O_PDO_2008.mxd
mm ghhw vy h Pd d O d F Shphd vcy A 3.0. Mhd ghhw w vyd g pvc c-pybc pc g pdmd ( 1998). Smp w pcd g dd, d pw d ccd by c, bcyc f y h bdg (16-26 J) wh ghhw cdd m. Sm cvd h p dg h m fm. Dym cc w cdcd p ch vy m vy p, hc vy fy d pmz cc. Ahgh w xpmd wh m, w cy dd vy h d f h cpc pd, 1.5 h f ( 1998). Tc cd f 5-13 vy p pcd ppxmy 500 m p cvg mxmm dc f 7 m ( 1998). A MP3 w cd f pybc cg f h fwg fv c: 1) Sx c d w bm (23 cd) 2) 30 cd f c 3) Sx c d w bm (23 cd) 4) 60 cd f c 5) Sx c d w bm (23 cd) w bdc g mgph chd MP3 py. A mmm m f 5 m w p bdcg d g ch. vc md by bh x wh bm -vc d (cd wh wd h v h pmy fh) md b md by m y (P. 1996). T wdg pvc pc hv v b fd-d. Th w d h ffccy f h c pybc d m f vy. A w cmpd h dffc h mb f ghhw bvd wh d wh bdcg h c. A h m w xpmd wh h g m f c pybc vy. S w mpd bf d f. F bh f h xpm w d h -pmc Wcx gd cmp h m d h m mp z. Addy w dcmd h mb f ghhw v hd dg vy. Th d w yd g pd -. A d y w cdcd SPSS 11.5 d d w cdd gfc α <0.05. dd vy, q f mm ghhw ghg d w fd wh h Bdvy f Wdf Sd. H & D 2008 9
mm ghhw vy h Pd d O d F Shphd vcy A 4.0. 4.1. Pybc Svy Svy w cdcd fm 16 26 J 2008. Sv c d 160 mp w vyd f mpg m f 13 h (Tb 1). F hdd ghhw dc w md v h mpg pd, h mjy f h (82%) ccg F Shphd. mp, hwv, h vy p ccd F Shphd (Tb 2). Tg h hgh c fm h p, h mb f ghhw bvd F Shphd p mp w 7.0 v 0.8 p h Pd d O. Tb 1. mm ghhw vy ff cdg mb f c d mp, g h d dc h F Shphd vcy d Pd d O Vy 16-26 J 2008. Tc Uq Smp S Pybc Svy Tm (h) ghhw Obv F Shphd 7 24 70 5.83 329 (167 ) Pd d O 10 90 90 7.5 72 T 17 114 160 13.33 401 ghhw mb g y h hgh c fm mp vyd > 2 m H & D 2008 10
mm ghhw vy h Pd d O d F Shphd vcy A Tb 2. mm ghhw dc dg vy p 16-26 J 2008 F Shphd vcy. Smp S p 1 p 2 p 3 Hgh c (d) FS1 5 4 3 5 (17 J) FS2 9 30 7 30 (18 J) FS3 3 32 4 32 (18 J) FS4 3 16 7 16 (18 J) FS5 4 4 5 5 (25 J) FS6 5 2 6 6 (25 J) FS7 5 3 5 5 (16, 25 J) FS8 3 3 6 6 (25 J) FS9 3 3 5 5 (25 J) FS10 6 11 6 11(18 J) FS11 3 3 3 (25 J) FS12 3 6 6 (25 J) FS13 3 5 5 (25 J) FS14 2 11 11 (25 J) FS15 1 5 5 (25 J) FS16 4 4 4 (17,25 J) Hgh c f h p cdcd J 18 (v p-, c-pybc f, c pybc f ) O 18 J w mpd wc; c wh c pybc d c wh. Th m mb f ghhw cd h mp wh c pybc (μ = 3.2, SD = 2.8, = 10) dd dff (Z = - 0. 18, P = 0.85) fm h mp wh c pybc w d (μ = 3.2, SD = 1.8, = 10). Addy, h m mb f ghhw cd mp p (μ = 10.2, SD = 11.7, = 10) dd dff (Z = - 1. 54, P = 0.12) fm h mb cd f (μ = 3.3, SD = 2.8, = 10). Th m mb f ghhw (μ = 1.55, = 103) dd dff ( = 0.513, df =102, P = 0.61) fm h y hd (μ = 1.31, = 103). 4.2. pdcv Scc Appxmy h h w p chg f mm ghhw. A bd w fhd ff wh wg h dy h pjc 2 Jy. O gg w dcvd h m. Th w dcvd h p f cy/dy hp h W b- h Pd d O. Th p w 1º d pc 160º. v f h w 528 m. Th mc cd f H & D 2008 11
mm ghhw vy h Pd d O d F Shphd vcy A m pbb djc xpd bdc d w dvd f vg. Th dm djc hb pc p w S by (Amch f) d vvy bcbh (h v). Th cbg fm w fhd g 5 Jy d cch z f w cfmd. A f v 16 Jy cfmd yg fdgg d vvy bcbh < 2 m fm. 4.3. D fm Bdvy f Wdf Sd A f 3,136 mm ghhw ghg cd w ccd fm h g (1:50,000 TS gd 082F04) fm 1960-2005 (Fg 4). Th mb f mm ghhw cd (d pd) h dcd h p 13 y (Fg 4). Th ghg w 6 My d h w 19 Spmb. Th vg gp z pd fm 1960-2005 d hw y dcg d (Fg 5). fc, hgh fw ghg pd, h vg gp z h cd h p 13 y (Fg 5). Spcfc c w cdd h d d h, w w b h d h hb mdg pc p mpg. 200 MOTH 100 9 8 0 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1992 2001 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 1998 2004 7 6 5 YA Fg 4. cd fm h Bdvy f Wdf Sd f mm ghhw pd My-Spmb 1960-2005 fm h g (1:50,000 TS gd 082F04). H & D 2008 12
mm ghhw vy h Pd d O d F Shphd vcy A Fg 5. cd fm h Bdvy f Wdf Sd hwg h m gp z f mm ghhw pd J-Ag 1960-2005 fm h g (1:50,000 TS gd 082F04). 5.0. Dc Oh h m pvdd by bdg bd vy, fw d x whch h bdc f h mm ghhw d b g-m d gg gfc dc bdc (OSW 2007). Th d cvd fm h B.. Bdvy f Wdf Sd hw dc f h, hwv h my b cd wh h d. Th bgg hcmg h vy ff dcmd, mg d d vy dffc yz. Th pjc my b d p f g-m mg ff h g. Hwv, pvd ffc d cc m h h vy wdw f h pc, v fcg pc dcby d b ddd. 1) Fgg bd hghy mb mg dvd bd dffc c v h d f bv. 2) Bf d, ghhw w b md vy ghhw w cg bmg. Th bd wd b md f d. 3) Bc cy m bd fgg hgh. 4) Bd fgg bw h hz w dffc d w md hy w cg bmg; h ffc w dff wh dffg pgphy d vg. 5) Af d, m bd w y dcd y, d bcm vy dffc m bd mb wh h w m h f dvd. 6) w md bcgd md vy dffc. H & D 2008 13
mm ghhw vy h Pd d O d F Shphd vcy A 7) Bm mch w fqcy d h c d hf v fh. Th, mxmm dc dc f bmg dvd wd y b g h f -bmg bd. Ay f vy p dcd dffc h mb f ghhw md bf d f. Hwv, m f h p vyd f w hgh v m ( d ). Th, h xpm fd dd h dpy h mgh bw mg p d f d. Th v mb f ghhw dcd dg mpg dd dff wh d wh bdcg c pybc, hwv w dd xm whh h mb f bd cd (bmg m) wd b ffcd by f c pybc. Bc dffc w bvd bw bdcg d bdcg, w ppd g c pybc qpm 19-26 J. Bc h mm ghhw hghy d m dm c bd (h d J 2000), mgh b f f v c h mb f m bmg dd h mb f dvd. f g mpg p dvpd, h mb f dvd (bmg m) my b h b m f mdg ccpcy. Ahgh h w dy djc d hv m hb chcc, h F Shphd pp pp mch g dy (7.0 v 0.8/ mp ) f mm ghhw h h P d d O. My f h dvd bvd h F Shphd vcy w fgg v h mb v wh fw dvd w dcd fgg v h P d d O v. v my pvd w qy fgg hb f mm ghhw h f-fwg wwy. 6.0. cmmd pvc pc m cmmd f vy h w bv my q fh g ppy pc bdc h g (Tb 3). F ch hd: ) dm f h mb f bd dcd (h bmg) fcd by h f c pybc chq. b) dd h mg f cpc vy: vy m ffcv g v h h db m (bf v f d)? c) xp h f hm fd phgphy, d-my d v dcby f ghhw. d) pvd g-m mpg p f dy. d g bd (bm) h mhd f m. O bv H & D 2008 14
mm ghhw vy h Pd d O d F Shphd vcy A pp h mp h bmg bhv md m. mm ghhw pp xhb m fdy (Bghm 1989). Th, wd b f d hgh ch g dy d dcb hb d cc. Addy, bc ghhw p f g, wd b f cdb mgm hw cmmy d pcc ch pcbd bg, hg d hbcd ppc fc bdc d pdc (Tb 3). d mg h Pd d O b hd gv m dc f hw ghhw ccpcy chg f cc pg. My f h ghhw dc w bv pw bh dy. O w fd cdy wh pw cd F Shphd 2007 (M. Mchm, p. cm), hwv w hw xvy h hb d f g. Sm pw gh f wy w bjc hbcd m dg pjc whch gg vp wh mm ghhw bdg chgy. W cmmd chg h f pw cd by mm ghhw d h hb d gd-g pc dd h p mpc f cd mgm cv wdf. Th wd h c f b mgm pcc f pw cd. Dy f mm ghhw vd cdby bw h w dy. W cmmd f ch cp vb mpg dm f c cmm dff bw h mb v d h Pd d O v (Tb 3). Tb 3. cmmd d f g f h dy f mm ghhw h W Ky. Objcv Ac M cmmd f Pvc vy pc g m mg b mgm pcc f mm ghhw (d pby h wdf pc) g pw cd Dm fc fcg w mm ghhw bdc h Pd d O 1) v h fc f c pybc chq bd 2) Dm h b vy wdw 1) mp p f h g 2) v h ffc f d pcbd b bdc d pdc 3) v h ffc f hg bdc 1) v ccc d pdcv ff pw 2) A p mpc f vg mv chq mm ghhw pdcv cc 3) v h mg f vg mv mm ghhw pdcv cc 1) mp c bdc bw mb v d Pd d O v H & D 2008 15
mm ghhw vy h Pd d O d F Shphd vcy A 7.0. Acwdgm W wh h My f h cd pp dmg h pjc, ccg vb c wdg d f h c h fd. Th y Schd f g h fd. Th y Ag G, y B d Bh Wdbdg f fcg pbc ch d dm. A pc h D Wch wh pvdd mp d GS pp. Add h Thm H d M Mchm f fm ghhw g h g. Th Mch P h Bdvy f Wdf Sd f pc d q. 8.0. d Bghm,. M. 1989. d f cmm ghhw: gv f mp? d 91: 722-724. mpb,.w. 2006. Fd Spc- mm ghhw. Wdf Afd 3: 32-71. [OSW]. mm h S f dgd Wdf d. 2007. Am d p h mm ghhw (hd m) d. Ow. v. 26pp. Mchm, M. 2008. F Shpd vcy Mgm P. Ppd f Fh d Wdf mp Pgm d F Shpd Swdhp c. 68pp. P,. G., S. D. Gd, d. M. Bghm. 1996. mm ghhw (hd m). Th Bd f h Amc,. 213 (A. P d F. G, d.). Th Acdmy f Scc, Phdph, d Th Amc Ohg U, Whg, D.. [] c vy mm. 1998. vy mhd f ghhw d pw. c fm Sdd mm, Pvc f Bh mb. Sdd f cmp f Bh mb' bdvy mb 9. Vc, Bh mb, d. h, A., d G. S. J. 2000. Dymc f bhv by cmm ghhw. h 7: 178-180. H & D 2008 16
mm ghhw vy h Pd d O d F Shphd vcy A 9.0. Appdx 1. 2008 mm ghhw D Sh. Obv () S D D Sdy A S Tm d Tm Z Smp S g Smp S hg p Tm # dvd # # hd # bm Dc D # bm Pcp d cv Wd pd A Tmp pybc S mm 2008 O Svy Wd (0-6): 0 = cm (<2 m/h); 1 = gh (2-5 m/h); 2 = gh bz, v (6-12 m/h); 3 = g bz, v d wg cy mv (13-19 m/h); 4 = md bz, m bch mv, d (20-29 m/h); 5 = fh bz, m wy (30-39 m/h); 6 = g bz, g bch mvg, wd whg (40-50 m/h). d v: 1. 2. <50% 3. >50% 4. 100%; Pcp: =; F= fg; M= My dzz; =gh ; H= Hvy ; S=Sw 4. (1-4): 1= gh; 2= Md: m fc wh bdc d/ g; 3= Hgh: b fc wh bdc d/ g; 4=xcv : xm fc wh bdc g. Sdy A: P= Pd d O F= F. Shphd H & D 2008 17