Accumulated Rainfall (inches) Accumulated GDDs Temperature ( F)/Wind Speed (mph) Precipitation (inches) CropCast Corn and Soybean Report Kenny Miller Monday, March 13, 2017 Peoria, IL Regional Forecast Discussion A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the area on Monday, with 1-2 inches of snow accumulation expected. Snow showers will likely linger into the overnight hours before tapering off early Tuesday morning. Sunny skies should favor the region Tuesday through Thursday before a chance of showers on Friday. Temperatures will be below normal for much of the week as highs today through Wednesday are in the low to mid 30s. Lows will drop back into the mid 10s to mid 20s. Readings will be a bit warmer on Thursday and Friday, with highs in the upper 30s and mid 40s, respectively. Day Date 10 Day Forecast for Peoria, Illinois M ax Temp M in Temp Daily Avg Precipitation ( F) ( F) Humidity (inches) Monday 13-Mar-2017 35 26 95% 0.39 Tuesday 14-Mar-2017 29 17 88% 0.00 Wednesday 15-Mar-2017 32 14 81% 0.00 Thursday 16-Mar-2017 41 21 79% 0.00 Friday 17-Mar-2017 49 32 93% 0.32 Saturday 18-Mar-2017 54 34 87% 0.00 Sunday 19-Mar-2017 57 34 81% 0.02 Monday 20-Mar-2017 65 43 95% 0.06 Tuesday 21-Mar-2017 56 37 85% 0.13 Wednesday 22-Mar-2017 53 35 84% 0.35 100 90 80 70 7 Day Hourly Forecast for Peoria, Illinois 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 Today's Wind Direction/Speed Local Direction Speed Time From (mph) 6:00 AM E 9 7:00 AM E 9 8:00 AM E 9 9:00 AM E 9 10:00 AM E 9 60 50 0.6 0.5 11:00 AM ENE 8 12:00 PM ENE 8 1:00 PM NE 8 40 30 0.4 0.3 2:00 PM NE 9 3:00 PM NNE 9 4:00 PM NNE 9 20 10 0.2 0.1 5:00 PM NNE 9 6:00 PM NNE 9 7:00 PM NNE 8 0 13-Mar 14-Mar 15-Mar 16-Mar 17-Mar 18-Mar Precipitation Temperature Wind Speed 19-Mar 0 8:00 PM NNE 8 9:00 PM NNE 8 10:00 PM NNE 7 11:00 PM N 7 Accumulated Precipitation since March 1 for Peoria, IL Accumulated Growing Degree Days (Base 50 F) since March 1 for Peoria, IL 3.5 120 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 100 80 60 40 20 0.0 3/1 3/3 3/5 3/7 3/9 3/11 3/13 3/15 3/17 3/19 3/21 3/23 3/25 3/27 0 3/1 3/3 3/5 3/7 3/9 3/11 3/13 3/15 3/17 3/19 3/21 3/23 3/25 3/27 2017 Actuals MDA 15 Day Forecast 2017 Actuals MDA 15 Day Forecast 30 Year Normal 2016 Actuals 30 Year Normal 2016 Actuals Page 1
Total Precipitation Yesterday Total Precipitation Past 7 Days MDA Precipitation Forecast Monday, March 13, 2017 Tuesday, March 14, 2017 Wednesday, March 15, 2017 Thursday, March 16, 2017 Friday, March 17, 2017 Total Precipitation Next 5 Days 1-5 Day Precip Compared to Average 6-10 Day Precip Compared to Average 11-15 Day Precip Compared to Average Page 2
Maximum Temperature Yesterday Temp Compared to Average- Past 7 Days MDA Maximum Temperature Forecast Monday, March 13, 2017 Tuesday, March 14, 2017 Wednesday, March 15, 2017 Thursday, March 16, 2017 Friday, March 17, 2017 Average Maximum Temp Next 5 Days 1-5 Day Temp Compared to Average 6-10 Day Temp Compared to Average 11-15 Day Temp Compared to Average Page 3
Minimum Temperature Yesterday Temp Compared to Average- Past 7 Days MDA Minimum Temperature Forecast Monday, March 13, 2017 Tuesday, March 14, 2017 Wednesday, March 15, 2017 Thursday, March 16, 2017 Friday, March 17, 2017 Average Minimum Temp Next 5 Days 1-5 Day Temp Compared to Average 6-10 Day Temp Compared to Average 11-15 Day Temp Compared to Average Page 4
6-10 Day Forecast: Wed Sat Tue Mar 18 14 15 - - Wed Sat Sun Mar 18 22 19 Wetter Drier northern Drier Midwest, eastern Plains, northeast Midwest western Plains Midwest MDA 6-10 Day Temperature Forecast MDA 6-10 Day Precipitation Forecast Previous Forecast Previous Forecast Model Preference: ECM Ensemble CHANGES: The precipitation outlook is wetter in the northern Plains and western Midwest, and drier in the eastern Midwest. Temperatures are warmer in the western Midwest, Delta, and Plains, and cooler in the northeastern Midwest. CROP IMPACT: Showers in the northern Plains should further improve moisture supplies for wheat, while dryness will continue to increase in the central and southern Plains. Moisture should also decline in the Delta and southeastern Midwest. Mild temperatures in the western Midwest and Plains will increase soil temperatures. RISKS: There is a wetter risk in the southeastern Midwest and northern Delta. CONFIDENCE: Confidence in the temperature outlook is near normal. Confidence in the precipitation outlook is near normal. MODEL PREFERENCE: ECM ensemble 11-15 Day Forecast: Thu Sun Mon Mar 23 19 20 - Mon - Thu Fri Mar 24 23 27 Slightly Slightly Wetter drier drier southern Plains Delta Plains MDA 11-15 Day Temperature Forecast MDA 11-15 Day Precipitation Forecast Previous Forecast Previous Forecast Model Preference: ECM Ensemble CHANGES: The precipitation outlook is slightly drier in the southern Plains. Temperatures are warmer in the southeastern Plains, Delta, and southern Midwest, and cooler in the northern Plains and northern Midwest. CROP IMPACT: An upturn in showers in the central Plains and Midwest would improve moisture for wheat. Some slight improvements would also be possible in the southern Plains. Mild conditions in the Plains, Midwest, and Delta should further increase soil temperatures. RISKS: There is a drier risk in the Plains. CONFIDENCE: Confidence in the temperature outlook is near normal. Confidence in the precipitation outlook is near normal. MODEL PREFERENCE: ECM ensemble Page 5
Accumulated Precip (in.) CropCast Corn and Soybean Report Kenny Miller Monday, March 13, 2017 Past 45 Days Precipitation Percent of 30 Year Average Past 45 Days Temp Departure Compared to 30 Year Average The chart below shows how accumulated precipitation since April 1 compares to benchmark weather years in the Peoria area. Benchmark unfavorable weather year: 2012 (IL corn yield 37% below trend, IL soybean yield 12% below trend) Benchmark favorable weather year: 2014 (IL corn yield 18% above trend, IL soybean yield 12% above trend) 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Accumulated Precipitation for Peoria, IL Compared to Benchmark Weather Years 3/1 3/3 3/5 3/7 3/9 3/113/133/153/173/193/213/233/253/27 2017 Actuals MDA 15 Day Forecast 30 Year Normal 2014: Benchmark Favorable Year 2012: Benchmark Unfavorable Year The maps below track crop progress across the U.S. for the corn and soybean crops based on weekly data from the USDA crop progress report. These maps are updated each Tuesday, showing data from the previous Sunday. The colors on the map indicate county-level production levels for each crop. Corn harvesting is now 97% complete nationally, slightly ahead of the 5 year average of 96%, and matching the harvest pace from last year at this time. The only major corn producing state with less than 90% of the harvest complete is Michigan, where 83% of the corn crop had been harvested as of Sunday. There is also still at least 5% of the corn harvest left to complete across North Dakota, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. None of these areas are running significantly behind the 5 year average, however. Snow in the far northern Midwest over the next couple of days may slow remaining corn harvesting, but drier weather later this week should allow the harvest to near completion in most areas. Soybean harvesting has finished up in most areas. Page 6
Global Ag Highlights Vegetative Health Index (VHI) is derived by satellite and is used to help determine whether crops are under stress and can also be used to estimate crop yields. The maps below show the Vegetative Health Index for major growing areas around the world relative to a 30 year average. Values less than zero represent below normal VHI, while values above zero represent above normal VHI. This imagery is updated on a weekly basis. Most recent update: Mar 4, 2017-20 -15-10 -5 +5 +10 +15 +20 Below Normal Above Normal Desert Snow/Ice or Missing Data Regional Crop Weather Discussions Midwest PAST 72 HOURS: Snow favored southern Minnesota, Iowa, and southwestern Wisconsin over the weekend, with a wintry mix noted in southern Missouri. 5 DAY FORECAST: Snow should spread across much of the region today, with rain expected in central and southeastern areas on Friday. CROP IMPACT: Snow across the region will likely melt a bit later in the week, and this combined with additional showers late week should further improve moisture for wheat. Temperatures are rather cold in the region, but no notable winterkill is occurring. Regional Vegetative Health Imagery Brazil PAST 72 HOURS: Rains favored northern Mato Grosso, Goias, southwestern Minas Gerais, southern Sao Paulo, Parana, southeastern Mato Grosso do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul this past weekend. 5 DAY FORECAST: Rains should favor Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias, Sao Paulo, Parana, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul this week. 6-10 DAY: The 6-10 day is drier in central areas, and wetter in northeastern areas. CROP IMPACT: Limited rains in northern areas this past weekend continued to favor soybean harvesting and safrinha corn planting. More notable showers there this week will slow fieldwork, but should improve moisture for safrinha corn growth. Showers in southern areas over the weekend maintained favorable moisture for late crop growth. Argentina PAST 72 HOURS: A few showers favored Entre Rios, far northern Santa Fe, and southeastern Buenos Aires this past weekend. 5 DAY FORECAST: Showers should return to Cordoba, Santa Fe, and Entre Rios Wednesday and Thursday. Dry weather should prevail otherwise through Friday. 6-10 DAY: The 6-10 day outlook is unchanged. CROP IMPACT: Limited rains over the weekend allowed wetness to ease a bit in northeastern areas. Showers in northern areas this week should maintain moisture for late crop growth. South Africa: Black Sea: Other Major Crop Areas Forecast is unchanged; drier trends will allow moisture to decline in favor of corn drydown. Forecast is unchanged; warm weather will further melt snow cover and soil moisture will decline further. Page 7
North America Long Range Forecast Percent of Average Precipitation over the Past 30 Days Similar El Niño/La Niña Years: The forecasts on this page are updated monthly. 1. 1957 2. 1990 3. 1963 4. 1961 5. 1972 Last Update: Mar 9, 2017 April Temperature Forecast May Temperature Forecast June Temperature Forecast April Precipitation Forecast May Precipitation Forecast June Precipitation Forecast APRIL CROP PHASES Corn Planting Early Soybean Planting Winter Wheat Jointing/Heading MAY CROP PHASES Corn Planting/Germination Soybean Planting/Germination Winter Wheat Heading JUNE CROP PHASES Corn Vegetative Growth Soybean Vegetative Growth Winter Wheat Harvesting Long Range Potential Crop Impacts Warm and drier conditions in the Delta and Southeast in April will favor corn and soybean planting, but will lower moisture for germination Wetter conditions in the Plains in May will favor heading winter wheat and spring wheat germination Dryness will likely persist across the Delta through June, stressing corn and soybean growth An upturn in showers in the Prairies by June will improve moisture for spring wheat Page 8