Climate Outlook and Review Focus on sugar industry requirements Issued 1 October 2017 Roger C Stone University of Southern Queensland Document title 1
Overview A short La Nina-type pattern trying to develop suggests enhanced rainfall for summer. (The SOI phase for the end of September: Consistently Near Zero Phase ) (Note this was almost within a consistently strongly positive phase). The SOI to the end of September was close to plus 6.6 (+6.6) putting this recent phase just within the consistently near zero phase category. SOI (phase) based outputs show the most likely probability values for rainfall probability for all sugar regions as close to the long-term climatological values for the October to December total period. For Queensland and Northern NSW, based on a consistently near zero SOI Phase at the end of September, for the October to December 2017 period, the SOI phase system shows around a 50-60% probability of exceeding seasonal median rainfall for many Queensland regions (see map). The BoM POAMA model is indicating average to slightly above average rainfall probability values for most of eastern and southern Australia. For the longer term (e.g. November 2017 to January 2018) the European ECMWF GCM forecast system and other systems indicate close to climatology (normal) rainfall probability values for Australian sugar districts, although higher values are indicated for the Mackay region. According to BoM s and NOAA s forecasting system and USQ s analysis, the MJO drifted past our longitude in mid-september. It would next be due in early to mid-october. Temperatures: for sugar regions, most forecast systems show a 70% probability of above median overall maximum temperatures and a 50 60% probability of above normal minimum temperature probability values where shown on the accompanying map and which are indicated for the October to December 2017 period. Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 2
Figure 1: Forecast rainfall probability values for Queensland and northern NSW sugar regions - probability of exceeding the respective long-term seasonal median values overall for the total October to December 2017 period. Regions shaded grey have about a 50%-60% probability of exceeding median rainfall values relative to this period, (close to climatological normal). Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 3
Figure 2: Probability of maximum temperatures averaged over the three month period October to December 2017 being above the long-term median for this time of the year. Regions shaded dark grey have about 50%-60% chance of above median maximum temperatures. Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 4
Figure 3: Probability of minimum temperatures averaged over the three month period October to December 2017 being above the long-term median for this time of the year. Regions shaded grey have 40%-50% probability of above median minimum temperature probability values. Regions shaded yellow have a 20-40% probability of exceeding of above minimum temperature values. Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 5
Figure 4: Probability of radiation values, averaged over the three month period October to December 2017 of being above the long-term median for this time of the year. Regions shaded blue have a 60%-70% probability of exceeding median radiation values. Regions shaded grey to dark grey have about a 40%-60% probability of above median probability values. Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 6
Figure 5: Forecast rainfall probability values for Australia for the overall period October to December 2017 (after Stone, Hammer and Marcussen, 1996). Regions shaded grey have about a 50%-60% probability of above seasonal median rainfall (close to the climatological normal). Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 7
Figure 6 (a): Monthly SOI values since January 2010 the most recent phase is consistently near zero with the SOI very much on an oscillating roller coaster ride. The most recent 30-day average value to 30 September, was plus 6.6 (+6.6). Figure 6 (b) recent trend in SOI values (30-day averages) Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 8
Longer-term forecasts: The ECMWF and POAMA models provide useful assessments of longer-term rainfall probability values for sugar regions (and other agricultural regions). The ECMWF example below suggests about a 50% probability of above median rainfall for December 2017 to February 2018 for our Australian regions. Figure 7: Updated ECMWF forecast rainfall probability values for eastern Australia and the region generally for December 2017 to February 2018 (Courtesy ECMWF). Sugar regions now show about a 50% probability of above median rainfall for this seasonal period for eastern Queensland/NNSW (i.e. close to climatology ), although there are some regions (e.g. Mackay region) with values of 70%. Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 9
The United States Climate Prediction Center and the Bureau of Meteorology CAWCR Centre provide useful forecasts of sea-surface temperatures in important regions of the tropical Pacific Ocean that have relevance for longer-term rainfall and temperature patterns over Australian sugar regions. An example of a recent/current forecast of sea-surface temperatures in the Nino3.4 region is provided in Figure 8 below. Forecasts have recently switched to more of a mini-la Niña for the end of 2017 (with likely associated heavy rain for summer) and into early 2018. It is rare, but not impossible, for such a transition to take place around September, as appears to be the case this year. Figure 8: CPC General Circulation Model forecast of sea surface temperature anomalies through to 2018 - now suggesting cooler than normal SST through the southern hemisphere summer. Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 10
Detailed rainfall probability values for selected locations for October to December 2017, based on a consistently near zero SOI phase for September 2017. Mossman October to December 2017 100% chance of exceeding 134mm 90% 246mm 80% 289mm 70% 337mm 60% 367mm 50% 385mm 40% 437mm 30% 499mm 20% 537mm 10% 605mm Max ever record this pattern at Mossman this period: 825mm Probability of exceeding the long-term median at Mossman for this period: 57% (but may jump again next month) Innisfail October to December 2017 100% chance of exceeding 103mm 90% 134mm 80% 215mm 70% 286mm 60% 353mm 50% 383mm 40% 409mm 30% 503mm 20% 571mm 10% 585mm Max ever record this pattern for this period at Innisfail: 1466mm Probability of exceeding the long-term median for this period at Innisfail: 42% (but may jump again next month) Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 11
Tully October to December 2017 100% chance of exceeding 79mm 90% 212mm 80% 291mm 70% 309mm 60% 391mm 50% 414mm 40% 483mm 30% 563mm 20% 633mm 10% 720mm Max ever record this pattern for this period at Tully: 1200mm Probability of exceeding the seasonal long-term median for this period at Tully: 56% (but may jump again next month) Mareeba October to December 2017 100% chance of exceeding 16mm 90% 42mm 80% 62mm 70% 68mm 60% 81mm 50% 113mm 40% 140mm 30% 158mm 20% 198mm 10% 298mm Max ever record this pattern for this period at Mareeba: 432mm Probability of exceeding the seasonal long-term median for this time of year at Mareeba: 40% (but may jump again next month). Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 12
Barron River Flow (Picnic Crossing) October 2017 to March 2018 100% chance of exceeding 30,000ml 90% 32,000ml 80% 34,000ml 70% 59,000ml 60% 62,000ml 50% (median flow with this type of pattern) is 79,400ml (c/w long term median of 72,200ml) 40% 91,000ml 30% 115,000ml 20% 130,000ml 10% 190,000ml Max ever record this pattern for this period at Picnic Crossing: 252,100ml Probability of exceeding the long-term seasonal median flow (for this particular period) (of ~53,100) at Picnic Crossing: 52% (but note that this figure may jump again next month) Ingham October to December 2017 100% chance of exceeding 36mm 90% 59mm 80% 93mm 70% 134mm 60% 165mm 50% 174mm 40% 218mm 30% 288mm 20% 369mm 10% 500mm Max ever record this pattern for this period at Ingham: 1281mm Probability of exceeding the long-term seasonal median at Ingham: 38% (but note that this figure may jump again next month) Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 13
Ayr (BSC) October to December 2017 100% chance of exceeding 33mm 90% 49mm 80% 67mm 70% 97mm 60% 127mm 50% 143mm 40% 165mm 30% 200mm 20% 238mm 10% 270mm Max ever recorded this pattern for this period: 466mm Probability of exceeding the long-term median: 56% Mackay Sugar October to December 2017 100% chance of exceeding 34mm 90% 88mm 80% 110mm 70% 144mm 60% 176mm 50% 224mm 40% 280mm 30% 333mm 20% 385mm 10% 479mm Max ever recorded this pattern for this period: 1056mm Probability of exceeding the seasonal long-term median: 46% (but note that this figure may jump again next month) Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 14
Bundaberg Sugar October to December 2017 100% chance of exceeding 109mm 90% 151mm 80% 152mm 70% 191mm 60% 231mm 50% 280mm 40% 312mm 30% 336mm 20% 357mm 10% 420mm Max ever recorded this pattern for this period: 524mm Probability of exceeding the long-term seasonal median for this period: 47% (but note that this figure may jump again next month) Childers October to December 2017 100% chance of exceeding 75mm 90% 152mm 80% 184mm 70% 207mm 60% 229mm 50% 299mm 40% 329mm 30% 345mm 20% 377mm 10% 418mm Max ever recorded with this pattern for this period at Childers: 660mm Probability of exceeding the long-term median at Childers: 53% Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 15
Condong (NSW) Sugar Mill October to December 2017 100% chance of exceeding 149mm 90% 178mm 80% 201mm 70% 225mm 60% 254mm 50% 283mm 40% 310mm 30% 418mm 20% 470mm 10% 548mm Max ever recorded this pattern for this period: 702mm Probability of exceeding the long-term median: 44% (but note that this figure may jump again next month) Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 16
Recent forecast maps As these forecasts are issued for a three-month validity on a rolling monthly basis, it has been decided to provide a continuous reference to these forecasts, as below: Seasonal climate forecast valid 1 October to 31 December 2017 Seasonal climate forecast valid 1 September to 30 November 2017 Seasonal climate forecast valid 1 August to 31 October 2017 Seasonal climate forecast valid 1 July to 30 September 2017 Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 17
Seasonal climate forecast valid 1 June to 31 August 2017 Seasonal climate forecast valid 1 May to 31 July 2017 Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 18
Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) According to BoM s and NOAA s forecasting system and USQ s analysis, the MJO may next be due again mid-october. Please also refer to the BoM website (below) for updated information on the MJO. The information below also presents a one-stop shop (as requested through sugar industry workshops) for such information to be available. For updated climate information Click on the following links: For the MJO For weekly SSTs For easterly (and westerly) wind anomalies across the Pacific For sub-surface temperatures across the Pacific For ECMWF forecast products For plume forecasts of SSTs in the central Pacific For a complete history of the SOI The Long Paddock Additional information on ENSO We gratefully acknowledge Sugar Research Australia (SRA) for their kind support of this output Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 19