Approaching national adaptation strategies to climate change in the Baltic States Tallinn 29/30 May 2012 Communication about climate change on the German Baltic coast: Experience and mediated experience Dr. Dennis Bray Centre for Materials and Coastal Research Helmholtz Centre Geesthacht Email: dennis.bray@hzg.de
Two ways we learn about climate change Experience this is what we see and feel everyday the weather, the sea, etc. Mediated experience this is what we are told is changing around us, and often explanations why things are changing.
Four parts of presentation 1. The measured experience 2. The stakeholder account of this experience 3. The scientifically mediated account of the experience 4. The implications of interpretation
The Experience: Weather Measurements: Objective Criteria Data from German Weather Office Available at www.dwd.de
Location of weather data collection
January 2000 June 2011 Temperature Precipitation Sunshine hours Wind force These are things people can see and feel. Things that they can remember. They are unmediated experiences of nature.
Temperature Jan 2000 June 2011 Precipitation Jan 2000 June 2011 2011 2000 2011 2000 TNN=minimum temperature 2m above ground; TNM = mean diurnal minimum temperature 2 m above ground; TMM = mean temperature 2 m above ground; TXM = mean diurnal maximum temperature 2 m above ground; TXX = maximum temperature 2m above ground RSS = total precipitation in mm
Sunshine Hours Jan 2000 June 2011 Windforce Jan 2000 June 2011 2011 2000 2011 2000 SOS = total sunshine duration in hours FMM = mean wind force in Bft
Measurement indicates that there has been no real significant change over the last decade that would be obvious to those people experiencing the weather.
Regional political stakeholder accounts
Stakeholder perceptions of weather and change Bray, Dennis and Grit Martinez. A survey of the perceptions of regional political decision makers concerning climate change and adaptation in the German Baltic Sea region. September 2011. Available at http://www.baltexresearch.eu/publications/ibsps.html heads of local governments in the German states of Schleswig- Holstein and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: Gemeinden (municipalities) and Ämter ; typically Bürgermeister (mayor) or Amtsvorsteher (superintendent of an Amt); 1364 potential respondents; total of 535 unique e-mail contacts for the Bürgermeister and Amtsvorstehers were identified; 789 Gemeinden listed contact e-mail addresses that they shared with other Gemeinden in their Amt. Invitations to participate = 1100 Response rate = 104 (appx. 9%) in accord with other such surveys
Presentation of results Boxplots: -illustrate the median, spread and data values -lowest and highest values are indicated by whiskers - the boxes contain the 50% of total values falling between the 25th and 75th percentile, meaning that 50% of the cases have values within the box, 25% have values larger than the upper boundary and 25% have values less than the lower boundary - length of the box indicates how much spread there is in the data values within the middle 50 percentile. If, for example, one box is much longer than another then the data values in the longer box have more variability - what to look for: location and width of box
How do stakeholders recollect the experience of the past 10 years? What changes do they claim to have experienced?
q 3 5 a q 3 5 b q 3 5 c q 3 5 d q 3 5 d q 3 e q 3 5 f q 3 5 g q 3 5 h q 3 5 i q 3 5 n q 3 5 l q 3 5 m q 3 5 s q 3 5 o q 3 5 p q 3 5 r q 3 5 q q 3 5 k Are there signs that the following have already happened in the area where you live? not at all very much Perceptions of Change in Temperature warmer summer temperatures cooler summer temperatures warmer winter temperatures cooler winter temperatures more rain in summer less rain in summer more rain in winter less rain in winter more snow less snow more coastal erosion more sea ice less sea ice sea level rise more storm floods more floods from precipitation more sunshine less sunshine Stronger Wind Perceptions of Change in Precipitation Perceptions of Change in Seas Perceptions of Change in Floods Perceptions of Change in Sunshine Hours Perceptions Change in Wind
The common conclusion of regional political decision makers on the German Baltic coast, is that everything has changed in the last ten years. It is in interesting to note that some decision makers claim warmer summer temperatures and some claim cooler summer temperatures, and so on. If same person said warmer and cooler, for example, it might be an indication of a perception of more variation. According to the weather records, nothing noticeable to human experience has changed in this decade.
If these changes are thought to be happening, what are they thought to bring?
3 4 a 3 4 b 3 4 c 3 4 d 3 4 e 3 4 f 3 4 g 3 4 h 3 4 i 3 4 j 3 4 l 3 4 m 3 4 k If they occurred, how would the following environmental changes have an impact in your region? negative no impact positive warmer summer temperatures q cooler summer temperatures q warmer winter temperatures q cooler winter temperatures q more rain in summer q less rain in summer q more rain in winter q less rain in winter q more snow q less snow q more sea ice q less sea ice q Stronger Wind q Change in Temperature Change in Precipitation Change in Seas Change in Wind All changes are thought to result in negative impacts Some changes thought to result in positive impacts
Confusion as to changes in the weather. Confusion over the impacts.
Why the difference? This is the power of direct experience versus the power of mediated experience; what we see and feel versus what we are told is happening.
The scientific perception of climate change in the Baltic region. Bray, Dennis. SurBACC 2010: A survey of the perspectives of climate scientists concerning climate change and climate science in the Baltic Sea basin. BALTEX publication no. 48. October 2010. Available at http://www.baltexresearch.eu/publications/ibsps.html Sample = BALTEX mailing list (saturation sampling) 700 potential respondents Invitation only on line survey Response rate 19%
The Present How convinced are you that the Baltic Sea region in which you live is beginning to experience the gradual impacts: not at all 1 7 very much Climate change Baltic scientists Climate change German scientists Sea Level Rise Baltic scientists Sea Level Rise German scientists Q13 Q13 Q15 On climate change, all scientists are in agreement This is statistical change over a long period of time On sea level rise, the German scientists are a little more skeptical Q15 1 7
The appears to be little doubt among scientists that climate change is occurring. However it might not be to the degree perceived by the residents of the area. It seems possible that decision makers incorporate more than science into their perceptions of change the weather measurements demonstrate nothing that could be recorded by human senses as changes in the weather. So where do the decision makers tend to get their information.
q19a q19b q19c q19d q19e q19f q19g q19h q19i q19j Decision makers sources of information How much do you use the following sources of information Not at all Very much Television Newspaper Radio Books Public scientific talks Museums & exhibitions Contact with scientists Scientific journals Meetings & conferences Internal working groups
NOTE: Newspapers tend to focus on thematic issues while television tends to be event based! Television tends to focus on what is happening. Newspapers tend to focus on the why. When the two sources of information are combined, experience seems to take a subordinate role. So is there a need for a hasty response to climate change?
Q20a Q20a Q21a Q21a Q20b Q20b Q21b Q21b Scientists perceptions The potential for catastrophe in the Baltic region if we do not do anything towards adaptation or mitigation in 10 year None Very High Climate change Baltic scientists Climate change German scientists Sea level rise Baltic scientists Sea level rise German scientists 50 years None Very High Climate change Baltic scientists Climate change German scientists Sea level rise Baltic scientists Sea level rise German scientists
Stakeholder perceptions of the need to do something against changing conditions In your region, do you think adaptation measures must be taken immediately some time in the future q24 A sense of urgency
Scientists level of worry about climate change How convinced are you that climate change poses a very serious threat to the Baltic Sea region in which you live? BALTEX scientists Q12 German sub-set scientists Q12 Not at all Very much
Q 1 6 Q 1 6 Q 1 7 Q 1 7 q 4 q 5 Assessment of the Threats Posed by Climate Change and Sea Level Rise in the Baltic Region Public Concern over the issue of Baltic regional climate change the general public should be told to be: German over the issue of Baltic regional climate change the general public should be told to be: complete over the issue of Baltic sea level rise the general public should be told to be: German over the issue of Baltic sea level rise the general public should be told to be: complete unconcerned Decision Makers very concerned In your opinion climate change is something a person should be (decision makers) In your opinion sea level rise is something a person should be(decision makers) not worried about at all 7 very worried about
Conclusions 1. Perceptions seem to be shaped more by what we are told than what we experience. 2. Sometimes what we are told can create a false sense of urgency. 3. A false sense of urgency can lead to a less than optimal use of resources. 4. All sources of information should be rationally evaluated. Incremental adaptation strategies could be designed to be used in a way so as not to tax resources or cause cultural conflict resulting in environmental adaptation AND cultural adaptation.
We have the luxury of some time but not of neglect Thank you