Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update Participating Agencies 255 255 255 237 237 237 0 0 0 217 217 217 163 163 163 200 200 200 131 132 122 239 65 53 80 119 27 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 110 135 120 252 174.59 112 92 56 62 102 130 102 56 48 130 120 111 February 7, 2019, 1:00 p.m. CST Next meeting: Thursday, March 7, 1:00 p.m. CST The views, opinions and findings contained in this report are those of the authors(s) and should not be construed as an official Department of the Army position, policy or decision, unless so designated by other official documentation.
WEATHER / CLIMATE OUTLOOK Mr. Doug Kluck Climatologist, Central Region Climate Services Director National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Centers for Environmental Information Kansas City, MO 2
Conditions Last 3 Months: November - January http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/index.php 3
Conditions Last 30 days http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/index.php 4
2018 Overall Conditions 5
Mountain Snowpack (snow water equivalent % of normal) 6 5 https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/west_swepctnormal_update.pdf
Plains Snowpack (February 6th, 2019) (snow water equivalent) http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov 7
Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities (2/14-20/19) Precipitation Temperature http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/ 8
February 2019 Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities Precipitation Temperature http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/ 9
3 Month Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities (February - March April, 2019) Precipitation Temperature http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/ 10
Drought Update https://www.drought.gov/drought/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ 11
Key Points (Summary) Current Conditions Current ENSO condition hedging on El Niño but not quite there Plains snowpack widespread, not outstanding Eastern ND & SD snowpack up to 4-6 of water Mountain snowpack mainly average (long way to go) Predictions El Niño may not officially occur this year transition to Neutral Likely continued cold basin-wide through February Leaning towards warmer than normal conditions (March-April) Precipitation into spring February leans wet basin wide (except NW Montana) Generally equal chances of above, below, near normal during March & April. Slightly better chances of above normal SW basin. 12
BASIN CONDITIONS / FLOOD OUTLOOK Kevin Low, P.E. Hydrologist, Missouri Basin River Forecast Center National Weather Service Pleasant Hill, MO 13
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER Summary Points Mountain snowpack about normal for most of the mountainous west. The Milk River basin is below normal. We are about 60% through the accumulation period. Eastern Dakotas is the only region with appreciable plains snow. Significant flooding due to mountain snow runoff alone is not likely. Soils in the eastern half of the basin are wetter than normal. Freeze-up ice jams have already occurred (no major impacts reported). We will need to monitor for break-up jamming this Spring. Springtime flooding likely in the eastern portion of the basin this year (thunderstorm-driven flooding is typical for the southeastern portion) First official NWS Spring Flood Outlook will be issued on 21 February. https://www.weather.gov/mbrfc/springfloodoutlook_text 14 Building a Weather-Ready Nation
UPPER MISSOURI RIVER BASIN WATER MANAGEMENT UPDATE FOR 2019 John Remus, P.E., Chief U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Missouri River Basin Water Management 15 12
UPPER BASIN RUNOFF FOR 2019 Kevin Stamm, P.E. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Missouri River Basin Water Management 16 12
6 5 4 Missouri River Runoff above Sioux City, IA 2019 Forecast 2019 Calendar Year Forecast = 25.6 MAF 3 2 1 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Observed 2019 Forecast Average 17
Plains Snowpack February 6, 2019 Source: NOAA National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC) 18
Inches of Water Equivalent 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Missouri River Basin Mountain Snowpack Water Content February 7, 2019 Total above Fort Peck O N D J F M A M J J A S Inches of Water Equivalent 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 90% of average 90% of average Total Fort Peck to Garrison O N D J F M A M J J A S 2018-2019 1981-2010 Ave 1997 2001 2011 2018-2019 1981-2010 Ave 1997 2001 2011 Normally by February 1, about 64% of the peak mountain SWE has occurred in both reaches. 19
RESERVOIR SYSTEM REGULATION Joel Knofczynski, P.E. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Missouri River Basin Water Management 20
MISSOURI RIVER MAINSTEM SYSTEM STORAGE ZONES AND ALLOCATIONS Exclusive Flood Control 6% Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use 16% Historic max - 2011 Feb 7, 2019 72.8 56.1 Storage In MAF* 72.4 67.7 56.1 Current Storage Carryover Multiple Use 53% Historic min - 2007 33.9 *Storages updated in August 2013 based on reservoir surveys. Permanent Pool 25% 17.6 21 0
CURRENT RESERVOIR LEVELS FEB 7, 2019 Fort Peck Exclusive Flood Control Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use 2250 2235.6 2246 Exclusive Flood Control Annual Flood Control & 2234 Multiple Use 1838.7 2220.1 Elevation in feet msl Garrison 2220.1 Elevation in feet msl 1854 1850 1837.5 Carryover Multiple Use Carryover Multiple Use Permanent Pool 1.6 feet above base of Flood Control zone 2160 2030 Permanent Pool 1.2 feet above base of Flood Control zone 1775 1673 Oahe Exclusive Flood Control Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use Carryover Multiple Use 1605.9 2220.1 Elevation in feet msl 1620 1617 1607.5 Fort Randall Exclusive Flood Control Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use Carryover Multiple Use 2220.1 1345.9 Elevation in feet msl 1375 1365 1350 Permanent Pool 1.6 feet below base of Flood Control zone 22 1540 1415 Permanent Pool 4.1 feet below base of Flood Control zone 1320 1240
KEY POINTS Currently, all 16.3 MAF of flood storage space is available. Full navigation season. Full service flow support to start the season. Annual power production of 9.7B kwh. (average is 9.3B kwh) Good service to all authorized purposes. 23
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MARCH S UPDATE Thursday, March 7, 2019 1:00 pm CST 25
CONTACT INFORMATION Name Office Email Address Phone Number Eileen Williamson Doug Kluck Kevin Low John Remus Kevin Stamm Joel Knofczynski USACE, NWD Public Affairs Office NOAA, Kansas City, Climatologist National Weather Service, Hydrologist USACE, Chief, Missouri River Basin Water Management USACE, MRBWM, Hydraulic Engineer USACE, MRBWM, Hydraulic Engineer Eileen.L.Williamson@usace.army.mil 402-996-3802 Doug.Kluck@noaa.gov 816-994-3008 Kevin.Low@noaa.gov John.I.Remus@usace.army.mil 402-996-3840 Kevin.D.Stamm@usace.army.mil 402-996-3874 Joel.D.Knofczynski@usace.army.mil 402-996-3852 26