Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update Participating Agencies 255 255 255 237 237 237 0 0 0 217 217 217 163 163 163 200 200 200 131 132 122 239 65 53 80 119 27 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 110 135 120 252 174.59 112 92 56 62 102 130 102 56 48 130 120 111 January 9, 2018 Teleconference #: 877-848-7030 Access #: 3773588 Security Code: 1801 1:00 pm CST http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/ The views, opinions and findings contained in this report are those of the authors(s) and should not be construed as an official Department of the Army position, policy or decision, unless so designated by other official documentation.
WEATHER / CLIMATE Mr. Doug Kluck Climatologist, Central Region Climate Services Director National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Kansas City, MO 2
Conditions Last 30 days http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/index.php 3
Conditions Since 10/1/2017 http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/index.php 4
Mountain Snowpack http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/water/drought/wdr.pl 5
Plains Snowpack (January 7 th, 2018) (snow water equivalent) 6 http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov
Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities (1/16-1/22/17) http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/ 7
January Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities 8
3 Month Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities (January - February - March) 9 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1
Drought Update 10 https://www.drought.gov/drought/
Key Points (Summary) Current Conditions Current ENSO condition La Niña Plains snowpack widespread but relatively shallow Mountain snowpack average to above normal north (MT, WY) and below normal south (CO and s. WY) Predictions La Niña will fade to neutral in the spring Likely continued cool north through early spring, warm south/west Precipitation into spring Leans wet northern basin (slightly greater than normal chances) Slightly better chances of continued dry to the south and west 11
BASIN CONDITIONS / FLOOD OUTLOOK Kevin Low Hydrologist, Missouri Basin River Forecast Center National Weather Service Pleasant Hill, MO 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER SUMMARY POINTS Mountain snowpack is slightly above normal. Plains snowpack is widespread, but very shallow. Not a significant player at this time. Warm and dry Fall and early Winter should help decrease flood potential over much of the basin. Significant ice jamming has not been reported, but will need to be watched through early Spring. NWS will issue first Spring Flood Outlook on Thursday, February 15 th. 13 Building a Weather-Ready Nation
UPPER MISSOURI RIVER BASIN WATER MANAGEMENT UPDATE FOR 2018 John Remus, P.E., Chief U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Missouri River Basin Water Management 14 12
UPPER BASIN RUNOFF FOR 2018 Nicole Shorney, P.E. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Missouri River Basin Water Management 15 12
7 6 5 4 Missouri River Runoff above Sioux City, IA 2018 Forecast 2018 Calendar Year Forecast = 26.6 MAF 3 2 1 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Observed 2018 Forecast Average 16
Inches of Water Equivalent 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Missouri River Basin Mountain Snowpack Water Content January 1, 2018 Total above Fort Peck O N D J F M A M J J A S Inches of Water Equivalent 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 118% of average 134% of average Total Fort Peck to Garrison O N D J F M A M J J A S 2017-2018 1981-2010 Ave 1997 2001 2011 2017-2018 1981-2010 Ave 1997 2001 2011 Normally by January 1, about 44% of the peak mountain SWE has occurred in both reaches. 17
Missouri River at Omaha January 8, 2018 18
RESERVOIR SYSTEM REGULATION Joel Knofczynski, P.E. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Missouri River Basin Water Management 19
MISSOURI RIVER MAINSTEM SYSTEM STORAGE ZONES AND ALLOCATIONS Exclusive Flood Control 6% Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use 16% Historic max - 2011 Jan 8, 2018 72.8 56.3 Storage In MAF* 72.4 67.7 56.1 Current Storage Carryover Multiple Use 53% Historic min - 2007 33.9 *Storages updated in August 2013 based on reservoir surveys. Permanent Pool 25% 17.6 20 0
CURRENT RESERVOIR LEVELS JAN 8, 2018 Fort Peck Exclusive Flood Control Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use 2250 2235.8 2246 Exclusive Flood Control Annual Flood Control & 2234 Multiple Use 1839.9 2220.1 Elevation in feet msl Garrison 2220.1 Elevation in feet msl 1854 1850 1837.5 Carryover Multiple Use Carryover Multiple Use Permanent Pool 1.8 feet above base of Flood Control zone 2160 2030 Permanent Pool 2.4 feet above base of Flood Control zone 1775 1673 Oahe Exclusive Flood Control Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use Carryover Multiple Use 1606.1 2220.1 Elevation in feet msl 1620 1617 1607.5 Fort Randall Exclusive Flood Control Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use Carryover Multiple Use 2220.1 1341.1 Elevation in feet msl 1375 1365 1350 Permanent Pool 1.4 feet below base of Flood Control zone 21 1540 1415 Permanent Pool 8.9 feet below base of Flood Control zone 1320 1240
KEY POINTS Currently, 16.1 MAF of 16.3 MAF of flood storage space is available. Full navigation season. Full service flow support for season. Annual power production of 10.1 BKWhrs (average is 9.3 BKWhrs) Good service to all authorized purposes. 22
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FEBRUARY S UPDATE Tuesday, Feb 6, 2018 1:00 pm CST 24
CONTACT INFORMATION Name Office Email Address Phone Number Eileen Williamson Doug Kluck Kevin Low John Remus Nicole Shorney Joel Knofczynski USACE, NWD Public Affairs Office NOAA, Kansas City, Climatologist National Weather Service, Hydrologist USACE, Chief, Missouri River Basin Water Management USACE, MRBWM, Hydraulic Engineer USACE, MRBWM, Hydraulic Engineer Eileen.L.Williamson@usace.army.mil 402-996-3802 Doug.Kluck@noaa.gov 816-994-3008 Kevin.Low@noaa.gov John.I.Remus@usace.army.mil 402-996-3840 Nicole.L.Shorney@usace.army.mil 402-996-3875 Joel.D.Knofczynski@usace.army.mil 402-996-3852 25