Drought in Southeast Colorado Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu 1
Historical Perspective on Drought Tourism Farming Wells Fishing and Riverbeds 2
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Through 1999 4
Through 1999 5
1978 1986 1994 2002 25 20 15 10 5 0 Rocky Ford Water Year Time Series (1890-2002) 6 1970 1930 1938 1946 1954 1962 Years 1922 1914 1906 1898 Precipitation (Inches) 1890
Colorado Statewide Annual Temperatures through 2002 50 Colorado Average Annual Temperature (1895-2002) Temperature (degrees F) 48 46 44 42 40 1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 Year From NOAA, National Climatic Data Center 7
How we got into this drought! 8
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Reservoir Storage Statewide Reservoir Levels for Colorado 140 120 Percent of Average 100 80 60 40 20 0 Oct 1. 1998 Oct 1. 1999 Oct 1. 2000 Oct 1. 2001 Oct 1. 2002 Feb 1. 2003 Date Provisional Data Provided by NRCS 13
1978 1986 1994 2002 25 20 15 10 5 0 Rocky Ford Water Year Time Series (1890-2002) 14 1970 1930 1938 1946 1954 1962 Years 1922 1914 1906 1898 Precipitation (Inches) 1890
Where do we stand now? 15
Independence Pass Snotel for Water Year 2003 16
Hoosier Pass Snotel for Water Year 2003 17
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Temperature - Water Year 2003 10 Departure from average, degree F 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Eastern Plains Foothills Mountains Western Valleys 19
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What May Be Ahead in 2003 21
What Happens Next We have never experienced 2 consecutive extreme statewide drought years. Past multi-year drought, characterized by one extreme year preceded and followed by other dry year. Entire Region rarely all recovers quickly and at the same time. Hope for the best, plan for the worst!! 22
Rocky Ford Calendar Year Average Precipitation based on 1971-2000 Averages 2.5 Precipitation (Inches) 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Months 23
Monthly Average Precipitation 3.5 Precip itatio n ( in ch es) 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 Lamar Cheyenne Wells Walsh Center Fruita Rocky Ford 0.5 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month 24
Precipitation A few storms contribute a large fraction of annual precipitation while many small events contribute a small fraction. 25
Precipitation (Inches) 25 20 15 10 5 Rocky Ford Daily Accumulated Precipitation for Years 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 (thru Jan) and 30-Year Average 1999 Accumulated 2000 Accumulated 2001 Accumulated 2002 Accumulated 2003 Accumulated Accumulated Average 0 January February March April May June July Month August September October November December 26
Positive Indicators Late winter snows Cool spring Multi-day precipitation Wet Snow Low intensity rainfall Light winds High humidity Abundant cloud cover 27
Negative Indicators Little late winter snow Missed opportunities Warm spring Brief, sporadic precipitation High intensity rainfall Frequent, strong winds Low humidity Abundant sunshine 28
Current Indicators El Niño still present Unfavorable Pacific decadal oscillation Missed opportunities February better but not a good indicator Wet often follows dry Most extreme dry periods last one year 29
Temperature March-May May 2003 From the Colorado Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html 30
Precipitation March-May May 2003 From the Colorado Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html 31
Temperature June-Aug 2003 From the Colorado Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html 32
Precipitation June-Aug 2003 From the Colorado Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html 33
COAGMET Weather Data for Agriculture Automated weather stations with daily and hourly readings of: Temperature Humidity Wind Precipitation Solar energy Evapotranspiration http://www.coagmet.com 34
Colorado Climate Magazine Good bedtime reading about the climate of Colorado -- recent and historic $15/year subscription pays printing and mailing costs 35
CoCo RaHS YOU CAN HELP! http://www.cocorahs.com 36
Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University Data and Power Point Presentations available for downloading http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu click on Drought then click on Presentations 37