Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update Participating Agencies 255 255 255 237 237 237 0 0 0 217 217 217 163 163 163 200 200 200 131 132 122 239 65 53 80 119 27 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 110 135 120 252 174.59 112 92 56 62 102 130 102 56 48 130 120 111 March 7, 2019, 1:00 p.m. CST Next meeting: Spring Public Meetings (April 9-11) The views, opinions and findings contained in this report are those of the authors(s) and should not be construed as an official Department of the Army position, policy or decision, unless so designated by other official documentation.
Climate Summary and Outlook for the Missouri Basin Doug Kluck Regional Climate Services Director NOAA s National Centers for Environmental Information Doug.kluck@noaa.gov 816-994-3008 NOAA Satellite and Information Service National Centers for Environmental Information 2
Conditions Last 90 days http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/index.php 3
Conditions Last 30 days http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/index.php 4
Soil Moisture https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas/drought/ 5
Mountain Snowpack (snow water equivalent % of normal) 5 6 https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/west_swepctnormal_update.pdf
Plains Snowpack (March 6th, 2019) (snow water equivalent) http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov 7
Outlooks 8
Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities (March 14-20) Precipitation Temperature http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/ 9
March 2019 Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities Precipitation Temperature http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/ 10
3 Month Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities (March April May, 2019) Precipitation Temperature http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/ 11
3 Month Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities (April May June, 2019) Precipitation Temperature http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/ 12
Drought Update https://www.drought.gov/drought/ 13 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Summary Current Conditions Current ENSO condition El Niño Advisory (through spring) Some indication of El Niño possibly hanging on Decent plains snowpack widespread Eastern ND & SD snowpack up to 6-8 + of water Mountain snowpack mainly average to above average Soil moisture tending to be wetter than normal Predictions Temperatures likely continued below normal basin-wide through March Mainly equal chances of below/normal/above temps (March-April) Precipitation likely to lean towards normal to wetter conditions in March lower basin with generally equal chances upper basin For March-May equal chances of above, below, near normal most of basin. Slightly better chances of above normal southern and SW portions of the basin. 14
Thank You Monthly Climate and Drought Summary and Outlook Webinar Series (3 rd Thursday of each month) for the North Central U.S. Next one will be March 21 st at 1pm (Becky Bollinger, Colorado State Climate Office) https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/7723644331 68566797 Or email me (doug.kluck@noaa.gov) for the information 15
BASIN CONDITIONS / FLOOD OUTLOOK Kevin Low, P.E. Hydrologist, Missouri Basin River Forecast Center National Weather Service Pleasant Hill, MO 16
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER Summary Points Mountain snowpack about normal for the mountainous west. We are about 80% through the accumulation period. Significant flooding due to mountain snowmelt alone is not likely. Appreciable plains snowpack exists across the northern-eastern boundary of the Missouri River basin. Plains soils are wetter than normal, and they are frozen. Enhanced flood risk exists for the eastern portion of the Missouri River basin. Major flooding is expected on many tributaries. Freeze-up ice jams have already occurred (no major impacts reported). Break-up ice jam flooding is almost a certainty (given late season plains snowmelt and springtime rains). Springtime flooding in the lower third of the basin is typically driven by thunderstorm activity. NWS Spring Flood Outlook (including slides) available at: https://www.weather.gov/mbrfc/ensemble 17 Building a Weather-Ready Nation
UPPER BASIN RUNOFF FOR 2019 Kevin Stamm, P.E. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Missouri River Basin Water Management 18 12
6 5 4 Missouri River Runoff above Sioux City, IA 2019 Forecast 2019 Calendar Year Forecast = 28.4 MAF 3 2 1 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Observed 2019 Forecast Average 19
Plains Snowpack 4-6 inches of SWE March 7, 2019 Source: NOAA National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC) 20
Soil Moisture Source: NLDAS Soil Moisture, https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas/drought/ 21
4 4-6 inches of SWE 22
Inches of Water Equivalent 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Missouri River Basin Mountain Snowpack Water Content March 7, 2019 Total above Fort Peck O N D J F M A M J J A S Month 2018-2019 1981-2010 Ave 1997 2001 2011 Inches of Water Equivalent 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 107% of average 103% of average Normally by March 1, about 80% of the peak mountain SWE has occurred in both reaches. 23 Total Fort Peck to Garrison O N D J F M A M J J A S Month 2018-2019 1981-2010 Ave 1997 2001 2011
RESERVOIR SYSTEM REGULATION Ryan Larsen, P.E. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Missouri River Basin Water Management 24
MISSOURI RIVER MAINSTEM SYSTEM STORAGE ZONES AND ALLOCATIONS Exclusive Flood Control 6% Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use 16% Historic max - 2011 Current Storage 56.1 MAF Mar 7, 2019 72.8 56.1 Storage In MAF* 72.4 67.7 56.1 Carryover Multiple Use 53% Historic min - 2007 33.9 *Storages updated in August 2013 based on reservoir surveys. Permanent Pool 25% 17.6 25 0
CURRENT RESERVOIR LEVELS MAR 7, 2019 Fort Peck Exclusive Flood Control Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use 2250 2246 Exclusive Flood Control Annual Flood Control & 2234.3 2234 Multiple Use 1837.2 2220.1 Elevation in feet msl Garrison 2220.1 Elevation in feet msl 1854 1850 1837.5 Carryover Multiple Use Carryover Multiple Use Permanent Pool 0.3 foot above base of Flood Control zone 2160 2030 Permanent Pool 0.3 foot below base of Flood Control zone 1775 1673 Oahe Exclusive Flood Control Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use 1607.1 2220.1 Elevation in feet msl 1620 1617 1607.5 Fort Randall Exclusive Flood Control Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use 1351.1 2220.1 Elevation in feet msl 1375 1365 1350 Carryover Multiple Use Carryover Multiple Use Permanent Pool 0.4 foot below base of Flood Control zone 26 1540 1415 Permanent Pool 1.1 foot above base of Flood Control zone 1320 1240
KEY POINTS Currently, all 16.3 MAF of flood storage space is available. Full navigation season. Full service flow support to start the season. Annual power production of 10.0B kwh. (average is 9.4B kwh) Good service to all authorized purposes. 27
28
APRIL S UPDATE Public Meetings April 9-11 April 9: Fort Peck, MT and Bismarck, ND April 10: Pierre, SD and Sioux City, IA April 11: Smithville, MO and Nebraska City, NE MAY S UPDATE Tuesday, May 7, 2019 1:00 pm CST 29
CONTACT INFORMATION Name Office Email Address Phone Number Eileen Williamson Doug Kluck Kevin Low John Remus Kevin Stamm Ryan Larsen USACE, NWD Public Affairs Office NOAA, Kansas City, Climatologist National Weather Service, Hydrologist USACE, Chief, Missouri River Basin Water Management USACE, MRBWM, Hydraulic Engineer USACE, MRBWM, Hydraulic Engineer Eileen.L.Williamson@usace.army.mil 402-996-3802 Doug.Kluck@noaa.gov 816-994-3008 Kevin.Low@noaa.gov John.I.Remus@usace.army.mil 402-996-3840 Kevin.D.Stamm@usace.army.mil 402-996-3874 Ryan.J.Larsen@usace.army.mil 402-996-3861 30