Weekly Market Report 05 December 2018
USD/ZAR Exchange rate: The Rand is currently quoted at R13.83 per US Dollar, 10 cents stronger in the last week. The Rand manged to break the support of the descending triangle formation. The Rand managed to reach a level of R13.54 but has since weakened slightly. The Rand was bolstered by an ease in the trade war between the US and China with an agreement that there won t be any increase in tariffs for the next 90 days. The Rand was also bolstered by the release of the latest GDP figures which exceeded the market expectations at 2.2% and which technically takes us out of a recession. Technicals appear to be pulling higher. Expect a short term correction with the bottom of the descending triangle acting as resistance, after which I expect the Rand to continue to firm against the Dollar.
Soya bean meal: Soya bean meal for Dec 2018 is currently trading at 312.6 dollars per short ton up 7.6 dollars in the last week. Meal found support after the short-term trade war truce and traded as high as 315.7 dollars per short ton. The price however found resistance at the 100-day moving average after which it has retreated slightly. Forecasters are pegging the Brazilian soya bean crop between 120 and 130 million tons which would be a new record crop. This is likely to keep meal under pressure. Technicals appear to be oversold. Therefor expect prices to come off and go and test the support line. Jan 2019 is trading at 314.0
Argentine soya bean meal premiums: Arg Premiums Sellers Buyers change sellers change buyers Dec -9 NO BUYERS 1 - Jan -9-12 5 2 May -12-17/16 4 3 * Down * Up
Local Market: Dec 2018 change in last week Mar 2019 change in last week May 2019 change in last week Dec 2018 Mar 2019 May 2019 White maize 2393 2470 2523 3 6 20 Yellow Maize 2376 2433 2439 32 13 21 Wheat 4187 4306 4374 78 82 76 Sunflower 5171 5141 4716 41 48 183 Soya 4690 4832 4919 169 189 185 * Down * Up Dec Yellow Maize graph:
Weather: MIDWEST Midwest is expected to experience a drying trend lasting at least five to seven days which will help improve conditions for the final harvest effort. Lower temperatures help to firm the ground which is beneficial for final harvesting. SOUTHERN PLAINS Southern Plains will have favourable conditions for winter wheat with adequate soil moisture in all areas. Colder weather this week will slow crop development. There continues to be opportunities to add to the soil moisture. Light rain or showers develop through Central and Northern Texas during Thursday or Thursday night. Moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected through Central and North Texas and Southeast Oklahoma during Friday into Saturday. ARGENTINA Argentina will experience favourably drier weather for planting and developing corn and soybeans this week. Some scattered frost in Southern Buenos Aires on Sunday morning should not have caused any damage to crops. BRAZIL Central Brazil experienced wet weather which raises concerns of increasing disease pressure to developing soybeans. However, during the next five days the rains favour Northeast Brazil crop areas while Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul trend somewhat drier. The Northeast, notably Bahia, could use the rain. There's favourably drier weather in Southern Brazil this week. Source: SAWB/GRADS/NASS/DTN/AWB/CWB/Intellicast/FNMOC/Unisys/DTN/NOAA/YR/KBWS/Wunderground/TWC/WordPress/WXRisk/Drovers/TWC/AGBoM/w eather/accuweather/spc/noaa/soybeansandcorn/windy/agrimoney/agweb/blackseagrain/ec.europa.eu/timeanddate/yr/myweather2/meteox/meteoblu e/intellica st/iweathar
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT TO WXMAPS.ORG GFS= Global Forecast System Available at: http://weatherphotos.co.za/rain_wxmaps_sixdays.html